5 AM Discussion= According to track islands are safe

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... /MIATCDAT4

The ridge will not build as expected earlier and that will allow the cyclone to not turn more west and then continue as a fish hurricane so if this verifies once again the islands are safe from another system this season.

[Steve H.]

However, it should be noted (reference long range HPC discussion) that there is a high degree of uncertainty in the Globals that are having consistency problems, hence the forecasts are very low confidence attm. BTW, the UKMET seems to have lost the low it was developing in the western Caribbean, and now has it developing in the Bahamas before heading NE. Again the models are in question here with there consistency problems Lets see what 18 and 00Z runs bring

[stormchazer]

However, it should be noted (reference long range HPC discussion) that there is a high degree of uncertainty in the Globals that are having consistency problems, hence the forecasts are very low confidence attm. BTW, the UKMET seems to have lost the low it was developing in the western Caribbean, and now has it developing in the Bahamas before heading NE. Again the models are in question here with there consistency problems Lets see what 18 and 00Z runs bring

I can't agree more. When steering is uncertain you have to wait for model trends that are consistent run to run. Yesterday it was recurving. This morning it was look out islands. Now its going to be a clean miss. The models are screwy right now.

[Rainband]

I agree with the model comments but The NHC has been excellent this year and I have faith in their forecast

[caneman]

Models continue to flip flop. For now I have little confidence in any solution. The longer it stays weak the further West it will go. I'll go with the wait and see mode as oppose to buying into any one solution just yet.

[Anonymous]

While I tend to agree with you Cyc about not hitting the islands, you're speaking WAY too soon at this point imo. Whenever you have a 1)slow moving system and 2)model inconsistency, the outcome is, usually, less confidence in track forecast. As such with Nicholas, and is why I wouldn't let your guard down YET if I were you. Still some uncertainty.

[cycloneye]

Agree rainband the track record of NHC has been excellent this season and I have to follow them as they haved been consistent with their tracks.Not the same thinking when intensity forecasts is about because in that area they have to do a little better.

[JCT777]

That would be great news if Nicholas does not hit the islands, but I would stay watch the system closely because things can change.

[caribepr]

[quote="Supercane"]While I tend to agree with you Cyc about not hitting the islands, you're speaking WAY too soon at this point imo. Whenever you have a 1)slow moving system and 2)model inconsistency, the outcome is, usually, less confidence in track forecast. As such with Nicholas, and is why I wouldn't let your guard down YET if I were you. Still some uncertainty.[/quote][quote]

I don't know anyone in the islands who lets their guard down til November is over. We just hope a lot that it doesn't happen and remain ready. But that doesn't stop us from enjoying an excellent beach day on Culebra![/quote]

[Anonymous]

I don't know anyone in the islands who lets their guard down til November is over. We just hope a lot that it doesn't happen and remain ready. But that doesn't stop us from enjoying an excellent beach day on Culebra!

Well at least you all watch storms closely. Because the latest (or earliest, depending on how you view it) HURRICANE hit on the Leeward Islands was January 2. And that's no typo. Was Alice in 1954-55 to be exact.

Hope you enjoy your sunny day.

[caribepr]

ACK! Well, that would be one heck of a New Year surprise.
I was born in '54, figure it's my fault and it won't happen again. Mea culpa!

[Rainband]

I don't know anyone in the islands who lets their guard down til November is over. We just hope a lot that it doesn't happen and remain ready. But that doesn't stop us from enjoying an excellent beach day on Culebra!

Well at least you all watch storms closely. Because the latest (or earliest, depending on how you view it) HURRICANE hit on the Leeward Islands was January 2. And that's no typo. Was Alice in 1954-55 to be exact.

Hope you enjoy your sunny day.

Wow!!! That was a late or early storm depending how you look at it :o

[cycloneye]

And let's not forget crazy Lenny that came from west to east as a cat 4 cane 140 mph in mid to late november that gave us here in Puerto Rico a big scare.

[Windtalker]

It seems like all day the models have not agreed to anything. Nick has to be watched real closely. We'll know more by Sunday.

[abajan]

I was quite surprised to see in a couple of polls (unscientific as they are because of the small sample sizes) on this site that most people thought that Nick would pose a threat to the islands. Others may know something I don't but I just don't see that happening.

IMHO it's a fish (except of course for a possible hit on Bermuda down the road).

[Rainband]

Looks like he is in trouble..maybe downgraded if this keeps up

[ColdFront77]

The model flip-flopping can only make the ultimate forecast for the system unknown. Three different model output and still uncertainties with troughs moving toward to system and lifting out.

[cycloneye]

This latest forecast track shows that Nick is a fish spinner.

[stormchazer]

Question is "which trough?" Currnetly, none of the troughs look that deep to move Nick north to sharp, especially with Nick's weakened condition.

[JCT777]

I was quite surprised to see in a couple of polls (unscientific as they are because of the small sample sizes) on this site that most people thought that Nick would pose a threat to the islands. Others may know something I don't but I just don't see that happening.

IMHO it's a fish (except of course for a possible hit on Bermuda down the road).

I think that many people would rather err on the side of caution. Even if I believe it will not affect the islands, it is too early to say "All clear" to the residents in the islands. There is always the possibility that something could change in the next few days. Once Nicholas is officially moving north or northeast, and is above 20 degrees latitude, then there is no need to worry about it affecting the islands.