ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormhunter7]

i swear the center is completely exposed on sat looking at IR. Deep convection is just NE of coc.

[LarryWx]

Positions as of 8 PM EDT:
18Z GFS: 19.9N, 86.1W
18Z FV3: 20.3N, 85.5W
12Z UKMET: 19.5N, 85.6W
Actual: 19.9N, 85.4W

[Aric Dunn]

i swear the center is completely exposed on sat looking at IR. Deep convection is just NE of coc.

pretty close. it popped out over the last couple of hours. though there is probably still 2 vorts rotating around. shear is on the decrease very quickly so only a matter of time now before deepening starts..

[stormhunter7]

i swear the center is completely exposed on sat looking at IR. Deep convection is just NE of coc.

pretty close. it popped out over the last couple of hours. though there is probably still 2 vorts rotating around. shear is on the decrease very quickly so only a matter of time now before deepening starts..

i agree.... with location. Still curious about the shear in the mid levels over the Yucatan... with the dry air.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Now does the COC reform again a bit further east where the convection is.

[rickybobby]

Fox 35 uses a in house model and they showed a strong cat 3 and closer to the Fl/Al border.

[Aric Dunn]

Now does the COC reform again a bit further east where the convection is.

there is likely two vorts.. since the one that we can see that is naked is moving sw now. so we shall see.

[pcolaman]

Fox 35 uses a in house model and they showed a strong cat 3 and closer to the Fl/Al border.

What program they running?

[DestinHurricane]

GFS at 96 hours shows the same thing as the Euro that the ridge will weaken, the only reason the GFS has landfall west is because it makes landfall sooner at a time the ridge is strong, ultimately this will come down to the speed, slower system is more east and faster system will be west due to ridge.

[ozonepete]

Center is consolidating south of western Cuba and notice the intense convective band beginning to wrap into the center from the west.

[Kazmit]

Will land interaction with Cuba help to hinder its intensification?

[weathermimmi]

i'm very confused, in your opinion is is it trending east or is the coc being located a bit west ??

[caneman]

Looks to also be expanding on the Western side. Wonder if shear is gone now. LLC now seems east of 85.

[Ubuntwo]

Recon just left.

[CronkPSU]

Will land interaction with Cuba help to hinder its intensification?

Maybe a little but just as likely it will be balanced out by some tightening the land interaction will cause

[djones65]

I have no doubt that Michael is producing 60 mph winds east of the center within the convection. However, it still has a long way to go before organizing into a significant cyclone in my opinion. The center of circulation in my humble opinion is now clearly defined near 20.3N and 86.0W while the mid level center is about 60-70 miles east. The shear will no doubt abate over time, but it is still strong at the moment. Perhaps tomorrow afternoon we may see a better alignment. Regardless of whether the convection pulls the surface circulation eastward in the near term, I believe the global models have a good handling of the situation. The ridge will protect peninsular Florida, but as has been stated before... if it takes longer to begin accelerating north then Big Bend should be on guard. My expectation is a panhandle hit near Destin. Global models are notorious for weakening shear too quickly, so hopefully this is the case once again, and Michael will only achieve minimal hurricane status... Just my thoughts.

[ozonepete]

Will land interaction with Cuba help to hinder its intensification?

Not much at all because western Cuba has no mountains - very flat so little interruption of the mid-level circulation will occur.

[stormhunter7]

advisory out. not much change IMO

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 07 2018

...MICHAEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BECOMING MORE LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

[Ken711]

From the 11:00 NHC discussion:

The HWRF model is the most robust of the intensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just prior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and HMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly shear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern semicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of an intense hurricane. Therefore, the HRWF intensity solution has been discounted, and the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory, which is close to but a little lower than the IVCN and ICON intensity consensus models. Although the 72-h forecast shows a decrease to 75 kt, this is due to the cyclone being inland, and should not be interpreted as being an indication of a weakening trend prior to landfall.

[blp]

Center is consolidating south of western Cuba and notice the intense convective band beginning to wrap into the center from the west.

[=https://imgur.com/ict1yTA]http://i.imgur.com/ict1yTA.gif [/url]

Ozonepete where do you think the center is? I think it is definitely east of 85W. I am thinking 84.7 or so.