ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[jlauderdal]

18z HWRF landfall Destin/Mirarmar 940mb (Cat 4) PM Wednesday.

https://i.imgur.com/9XM6NkE.png

I thought this model was always pretty much bullish ?

Too bullish 95% of the time

[NDG]

0z SHIPS now up to 86 knots at landfall, its trend up continues.

[LarryWx]

Shear is not too strong when it moves thru the GOM according to the 00z SHIP run.

[div]* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MICHAEL AL142018 10/08/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 74 81 85 86 87 82 78 71 62
V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 67 74 81 85 86 67 40 31 30 21
V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 69 74 79 82 84 65 39 30 34 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 19 18 17 12 13 15 14 12 11 16 15 35 63
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 2 1 4 1 0 3 0 8 7 5
SHEAR DIR 279 286 291 302 299 304 299 304 251 269 239 224 239
****SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.1 27.4 25.9 22.6

Note the SSTs being assumed: no lower than 28.6 C (83.5 F) all the way to the coast, which is realistic and reflects the solidly warmer than normal N Gulf SSTs that have to be at or near record high levels for 10/9-10. Normals for the far N Gulf on 10/9-10 are only ~78-9 and are often only in the middle 70s by then. So, this is not at all a normal situation for this time of year. It is more like the normal for late July through early Sep. So, the available fuel all the way to the coast is near the normal of mid season, not late season, at least for a nonstalled TC.

[gatorcane]

NAM shifts east, heading slightly east of north:

[PavelGaborik10]

18z HWRF landfall Destin/Mirarmar 940mb (Cat 4) PM Wednesday.

https://i.imgur.com/9XM6NkE.png

I thought this model was always pretty much bullish ?

Too bullish 95% of the time

Wasn't it the most accurate model intensity wise last Season? Wouldn't throw it in the trash by any means.

[pcolaman]

I thought this model was always pretty much bullish ?

Too bullish 95% of the time

Wasn't it the most accurate model intensity wise last Season? Wouldn't throw it in the trash by any means.

the NHC just did lol

[OuterBanker]

Well, NHC at 11edt noted an east shift. Wording indicates they are taking the ukmet in consideration. Eastern NC (yes I have a vested interest). Went from 20 percent t's winds to 50 percent at 11. But, I'm afraid that the big bend will take the brunt of it. Preps there should already be underway.

[toad strangler]

Well, NHC at 11edt noted an east shift. Wording indicates they are taking the ukmet in consideration. Eastern NC (yes I have a vested interest). Went from 20 percent t's winds to 50 percent at 11. But, I'm afraid that the big bend will take the brunt of it. Preps there should already be underway.

Hopefully most are minimum 85% prepped at the start like me and just have to obtain fuel and are able to install shutters quickly if you don’t have impact rated window and doors.

[SunnyThoughts]

GFS initialized

[blp]

Decent shift east almost makes landfall in Cuba.

[SunnyThoughts]

Sure not backing off on intensity, 960 mb @ 36 hours

[chaser1]

At the 12Z point Tue. morning, GFS is approx. 1/2 degree east of the 18Z forecast for the same time. Additionally, the new GFS run shows Micheal to be 5 MB stronger at this juncture

[AutoPenalti]

GFS with a decent shift east and about 6mb stronger, oh my.

[SunnyThoughts]

60 hours due south of Pensacola 955 mb

[lando]

GFS with a decent shift east and about 6mb stronger, oh my.

Decent is a subjective term. To me the shift is unsubstantial, maybe a few dozen miles

[chaser1]

GFS shows same landfall point, close or just east of Destin Fla. but about 2 mb weaker

[SunnyThoughts]

Eastward jog @ hour 66 maybe as far east of Panama City Maybe closer to Ft Walton

[p1nheadlarry]

Eastward jog @ hour 66 maybe as far east of Panama City Maybe closer to Ft Walton

Let's split the difference and call it Grayton/Santa Rosa Beach

[lando]

What’s uk show

[chaser1]

So thus far, GFS holding pat.... maybe land-falling closer to Seaside (just west of Panama City) Wed. early afternoon.