ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I keep saying that I will not be surprised if it is a hurricane as early as tomorrow morning if not noon at the latest. IMO.

I agree. Already Michael at 50 kt . Definitely a formidable tropical cyclone which unfortunately looks to get potentially very strong.

[CrazyC83]

I would not be surprised if Michael became a major hurricane by Tuesday at this rate, especially if it can consolidate a core.

[Aric Dunn]

After recon left the center they went through ( in red) begin moving sw as seen in the loop below.

which means somewhere in the area in blue we have a new circ with convection wrapping around the north side. might be the final center..

[Monsoonjr99]

These eastward shifts might mean that Michael misses the cold eddy.

[Mouton]

Yesterday I suggested a landing between Panama City and Naples. Looking at the water vapor runs I think my idea was on the mark but too far south on the peninsula. I now think cedar key is in play on the southern side of cone. I thought the path of Sergio was a hint especially with tphe low diving into ok from the north west. I am surprised how quickly it is deepening today albeit models forecasted it. Regardless of where this goes there is not going to be much lead time to prepare. Given a somewhat holiday weekend the press has been under concerned too.

I am not a pro so for any personal safety preparations rely on the NHC.

[p1nheadlarry]

These eastward shifts might mean that Michael misses the cold eddy.

https://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/images/ohc_aQG3_latest_natl.zoom.gif

That is ocean heat content, dependent on depth. SST's could still be warm enough to at least support the storm; if it's already a strong TS or even a hurricane by that point fluxes off the water will be present.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO INCREASE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[robbielyn]

Not sure what Watkins is referring to in terms of T.S. winds reaching parts of central and south Florida. Right now probs are 10-20% and in my take that’s as high as it will go. Outer fringes could produce some squally wx across sfl this week if the storm tracks further east.

He was just saying there was 10% chance for TS winds with a big portion of the peninsula (see graphic)before when the models were predicting an LLC close to the Yucatan. With an Eastward LLC, obviously the chances go up even more. so fl peninsula residents don't let your guard down.

[ozonepete]

Convection finally starting to wrap around the LLC. Soon we'll have a good fix on the center. Definitely east of where models had it up to now.

[Ian2401]

Convection finally starting to wrap around the LLC. Soon we'll have a good fix on the center. Definitely east of where models had it up to now.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/3Yb3Cvl.gif [/url]

How will this eastern component effect the overall track?

[northjaxpro]

Interesting wording from NHC and quite telling for me:in the 8:00 p.m. advisory:

INCREASING THREAT TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. (to paraphrase)

That is signaling to me that they are putting more belief in the UKMET solution. Just my rationale....

[jlauderdal]

Interesting wording from NHC and quite telling for me:in the 8:00 p.m. advisory:

INCREASING THREAT TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. (to paraphrase)

That is signaling to me that they are putting more belief in the UKMET solution. Just my rationale....

No florence but you get micheal

[cycloneye]

New video by Levi Cowan.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... wednesday/

[p1nheadlarry]

Interesting wording from NHC and quite telling for me:in the 8:00 p.m. advisory:

INCREASING THREAT TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. (to paraphrase)

That is signaling to me that they are putting more belief in the UKMET solution. Just my rationale....

Interested at what they say at 10, with the 18z guidance a bit west of the NHC track

[MississippiWx]

Kind of eerie that this storm is named Michael as we approach Halloween. I think the chances of a major hurricane hitting the FL Panhandle are increasing. Need a sharp increase in shear before landfall to help limit this.

[northjaxpro]

Interesting wording from NHC and quite telling for me:in the 8:00 p.m. advisory:

INCREASING THREAT TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. (to paraphrase)

That is signaling to me that they are putting more belief in the UKMET solution. Just my rationale....

No florence but you get micheal

It is looking that way jlauderdal. It is not looking good here right now if current trends hold.

[KWT]

Interesting wording from NHC and quite telling for me:in the 8:00 p.m. advisory:

INCREASING THREAT TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. (to paraphrase)

That is signaling to me that they are putting more belief in the UKMET solution. Just my rationale....[/quote

Interested at what they say at 10, with the 18z guidance a bit west of the NHC track

I think they will likely discard them due to not really having a good grip on the centers location. The 00z suite should have a better grip and initial starting point.

[ozonepete]

Interesting wording from NHC and quite telling for me:in the 8:00 p.m. advisory:

INCREASING THREAT TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. (to paraphrase)

That is signaling to me that they are putting more belief in the UKMET solution. Just my rationale....

Interested at what they say at 10, with the 18z guidance a bit west of the NHC track

The 18Z GFS run still had a bad initialization point for Michael; too far west. We need to wait for the 00Z runs.

[ronjon]

Convection finally starting to wrap around the LLC. Soon we'll have a good fix on the center. Definitely east of where models had it up to now.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/3Yb3Cvl.gif [/url]

How will this eastern component effect the overall track?

Looks like its closest to UKMET initialization.

[sunnyday]

Robbielynn said for South Fl residents not to let their guard down. There is no guard up. No one feels that anything is going to happen in SE FL. What do you feel might happen in that area?
Thank you for the info....