ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Even with the new relocation of COC a full degree east, the 18z GFS looks like it will landfall west of the 12z run. Hmmm.

18z run was started based on the old LLC, it has been back and forth between Destin and closer to Panama City on landfall during the past few runs.

[psyclone]

The problem (challenge) with systems that relocate eastward is that they often do this more than once. Michael's current convective signature is suggestive of another such relocation...or at the very least a reluctance to reacquire lost longitude....and perhaps continue to cede longitude.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say now is a good time to begin early preparations. Unlike with Florence, we're watching a storm deepening much closer to home, so we won't have 5 days or more of notice.

[Aric Dunn]

i kNew that NE side would stronger. .. and they have only flew through the north quad.

winds are probably 65 mph easy right now.

[cycloneye]

Warm core developing.

[ColdMiser123]

Peak FL wind was 56 KT the last pass, so even though 50 KT SFMR was found, that was taken to be questionable, since it was relatively close to FL wind.

With unflagged 60 KT FL wind with 50 KT SFMR in the same observation this current pass, I think they will likely bump winds to 50 KT at 8 pm.

[cycloneye]

Winds are going up after the pass.50kts at 8 PM.

060 050 008 01

[seahawkjd]

I'd say now is a good time to begin early preparations. Unlike with Florence, we're watching a storm deepening much closer to home, so we won't have 5 days or more of notice.

Also if officials say to evacuate please do. I know it gets said over and over but having just come through Florence EVERY person I've talked to that stayed were very vocal that they wished they had evacuated.

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is leaving.. now we wait 6 more hours

[BobHarlem]

Some of the first very outer bands from Michael are approaching the lower Keys right now.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like the previous center from the last pass is beginning to open up and stretch out in favor of the likely stronger circ to its east..

Yep looks like some more center reformations to the east are possible. I think the GFS is too far west for that reason. Consensus of the Euro and UKMET may be what to go with.

I don't buy how much slower the Euro is, new gfs did make the eastward adjustment. Is it too far west upon landfall, I think so, but I think it has the right idea regarding timing.

[cycloneye]

The VDM.

URNT12 KNHC 072210
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 07/21:48:40Z
B. 19.61 deg N 085.39 deg W
C. 925 mb 672 m
D. EXTRAP 998 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 41 kt
I. 143 deg 92 nm 21:17:00Z
J. 189 deg 46 kt
K. 143 deg 101 nm 21:14:30Z
L. 53 kt
M. 029 deg 33 nm 21:59:30Z
N. 110 deg 60 kt
O. 031 deg 35 nm 22:00:30Z
P. 21 C / 771 m
Q. 23 C / 764 m
R. 22 C / NA
S. 1345 / 9
T. 0.02 / 5 nm
U. AF305 0114A CYCLONE OB 13
MAX FL WIND 60 KT 031 / 35 NM 22:00:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 165 / 31 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Bunch of carp
..totally sick with flu or something...can't get boards or anything.

Please don't shift anymore east!!!

[artist]

I'd say now is a good time to begin early preparations. Unlike with Florence, we're watching a storm deepening much closer to home, so we won't have 5 days or more of notice.

Also if officials say to evacuate please do. I know it gets said over and over but having just come through Florence EVERY person I've talked to that stayed were very vocal that they wished they had evacuated.

Well said. Please, please, please. Many people had to be rescued.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1049055217587814400

[Kazmit]

Winds are going up after the pass.50kts at 8 PM.

060 050 008 01

Wow, 12 hours ahead of schedule. This has already outdone itself today.

[Ian2401]

How has the system been doing in regards to forecast tracks? To my untrained eye on satellite it looks well east of where it was supposed to be - while still having an eastward component to it. And how will this effect the future track?

[NDG]

I keep saying that I will not be surprised if it is a hurricane as early as tomorrow morning if not noon at the latest. IMO.

[SFLcane]

Not sure what Watkins is referring to in terms of T.S. winds reaching parts of central and south Florida. Right now probs are 10-20% and in my take that’s as high as it will go. Outer fringes could produce some squally wx across sfl this week if the storm tracks further east.