ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[bella_may]

Well the FV3-GFS 18z is running and at h30 it’s a tad east of the 12z run...

I think it’s broken lol

Nvm looks like it’s working now

[LarryWx]

Get a load of this: the 18Z FV3 initialized at 19.2N, 84.5W vs its 12Z 6 hour position of 19.4N, 86.7W and the 18Z GFS init of 18.8N, 85.8W!!! We've got just a bit of confusion here.

[supercane4867]

Both HWRF and HMON strengthens Michael into a hurricane within 24 hours.

[gatorcane]

Get a load of this: the 18Z FV3 initialized at 19.2N, 84.5W vs its 12Z 6 hour position of 19.4N, 86.7W and the 18Z GFS init of 18.8N, 85.8W!!! We've got just a bit of confusion here.

Almost a landfall on the Western tip of Cuba.

[jlauderdal]

Florence timing was different

Really bizarre to see a full 24 hr difference in landfall between the GFS and ECM just 72 hrs out. Not sure Ive seen anything that large between our two major models before.

[northjaxpro]

Both HWRF and HMON strengthens Michael into a hurricane within 24 hours.

Definitely possible. Michael already is at 50 kt currently.

[bella_may]

CMC is sticking with its previous track. Almost the same landfall in south Mississippi

[ColdMiser123]

Both HWRF and HMON strengthens Michael into a hurricane within 24 hours.

Significant shift toward a stronger system from 12z.

[CDO62]

18z Icon and Nam have both trended West.

[BobHarlem]

FV3 trended slightly east toward Destin (Was Pensacola earlier), Cat 3 landfall on Wed morning.

[NDG]

FV3 trended slightly east toward Destin (Was Pensacola earlier), Cat 3 landfall on Wed morning.

https://i.imgur.com/g9myZq1.png

And continues to slow down timing on landfall. Just yesterday it was showing landfall on Tuesday evening.

[artist]

Did these latest runs initiate the position properly?

[hurricaneCW]

FV3 trended slightly east toward Destin (Was Pensacola earlier), Cat 3 landfall on Wed morning.

https://i.imgur.com/g9myZq1.png

And continues to slow down timing on landfall. Just yesterday it was showing landfall on Tuesday evening.

It was likely moving too fast then, however it still shows it moving faster than the regular gfs.

[supercane4867]

Rapid deepening on 18z HWRF. Likely a CAT4 before landfall.

[BobHarlem]

18z HWRF landfall Destin/Mirarmar 940mb (Cat 4) PM Wednesday.

[MidnightRain]

The models still might be too far west, Michael is so lopsided I'm almost betting another center relocation occurs further east. I kinda expect the models to be clustered over Apalachicola and points east by tomorrow. Also, not buying a strengthening major hurricane at landfall. The models have been really over-estimating strength at landfall this season, and especially in the NE Gulf with a approaching front this is usually a graveyard setup for hurricanes. I could definitely see a 2, low end 3 in the southern Gulf, and a weakening cat2/1 at landfall as it gets swept NE.

[Dean4Storms]

The models still might be too far west, Michael is so lopsided I'm almost betting another center relocation occurs further east. I kinda expect the models to be clustered over Apalachicola and points east by tomorrow. Also, not buying a strengthening major hurricane at landfall. The models have been really over-estimating strength at landfall this season, and especially in the NE Gulf with a approaching front this is usually a graveyard setup for hurricanes. I could definitely see a 2, low end 3 in the southern Gulf, and a weakening cat2/1 at landfall as it gets swept NE.

Very plausible and as someone here in Miramar Bch just East of Destin I hope you're right. Still some very warm water there and only dry air or shear could limit it.

[pcolaman]

18z HWRF landfall Destin/Mirarmar 940mb (Cat 4) PM Wednesday.

https://i.imgur.com/9XM6NkE.png

I thought this model was always pretty much bullish ?

[cycloneye]

Shear is not too strong when it moves thru the GOM according to the 00z SHIP run.

* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MICHAEL AL142018 10/08/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 74 81 85 86 87 82 78 71 62
V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 67 74 81 85 86 67 40 31 30 21
V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 69 74 79 82 84 65 39 30 34 35
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP

SHEAR (KT) 19 18 17 12 13 15 14 12 11 16 15 35 63
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 2 1 4 1 0 3 0 8 7 5
SHEAR DIR 279 286 291 302 299 304 299 304 251 269 239 224 239
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.1 27.4 25.9 22.6
POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 159 156 150 150 146 148 141 134 119 96
ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 148 145 142 134 133 129 131 126 123 111 90
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 6 4 0 1
700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 66 66 65 68 68 65 53 38 33 27
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 24 27 27 27 27 27 25 25 25 25
850 MB ENV VOR 76 83 73 69 72 59 38 17 52 20 20 43 146
200 MB DIV 54 26 40 55 31 35 8 42 59 26 88 67 46
700-850 TADV 4 8 10 10 13 25 20 6 20 9 5 0 43
LAND (KM) 198 161 115 83 128 294 404 152 -68 -129 -77 281 322
LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.8 22.6 24.3 26.2 28.4 30.6 32.8 35.1 37.8 40.7
LONG(DEG W) 85.4 85.5 85.5 85.6 85.7 86.3 86.5 85.9 84.7 82.0 77.9 71.9 64.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 12 14 18 24 30 32
HEAT CONTENT 82 87 95 71 35 34 44 26 4 2 2 9 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=619)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 23.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5.
PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 2. 2. 0. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 13. 12. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 24. 31. 35. 36. 37. 32. 28. 21. 12.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.8 85.4

** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 8.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 2.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.47 2.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 2.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.8
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.76 2.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.61 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 17.8% 38.6% 23.3% 13.7% 11.4% 14.2% 15.7% 22.9%
Logistic: 9.2% 28.5% 18.5% 7.0% 2.6% 6.0% 7.4% 14.9%
Bayesian: 4.0% 6.0% 1.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Consensus: 10.3% 24.4% 14.5% 7.6% 4.9% 6.9% 7.8% 12.7%
DTOPS: 16.0% 47.0% 33.0% 25.0% 13.0% 39.0% 70.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX


** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/08/2018 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 8( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 62 67 74 81 85 86 67 40 31 30 21
18HR AGO 50 49 55 60 67 74 78 79 60 33 24 23 DIS
12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 58 65 69 70 51 24 15 DIS DIS
6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 47 54 58 59 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[robbielyn]

18z HWRF landfall Destin/Mirarmar 940mb (Cat 4) PM Wednesday.

https://i.imgur.com/9XM6NkE.png

I thought this model was always pretty much bullish ?

it is.