ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[Aric Dunn]

landfall position is maybe 50 miles. so same idea.but stronger

[Frank P]

18z GFS... 952 mb Strongest run yet... shifted somewhat west but still nailed the heart or the Panhandle

[bella_may]

When does the new gfs ensembles come out?

[ronjon]

18z GFS... 952 mb Strongest run yet... shifted somewhat west but still nailed the heart or the Panhandle

And no slowing down from 12z run - landfall 2 pm Wednesday, a full 24 hrs earlier than Euro.

[pcolaman]

Looks like a shift to the west GFS

[NDG]

Interesting part about the 18z GFS run is that it was started further west based on the old LLC.

On the other hand,it began at 999 mbs and that was the pressure of the second LLC.

It shows at 18z 1003mb, I think you are looking the forecasted position for 0z.

[Frank P]

Crazy part is the that final 9th inning turn to the NNE to NE... could keep the pucker pressure quite high along the north and east part of the Gulf Coastal areas until that turn is made...

[tolakram]

18Z GFS

[pcolaman]

Cheeks puckered here in the Pensacola area. Looking for the rest of the models runs.

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like it did show a relocation further east compared to the 12z

[NDG]

Looks like it did show a relocation further east compared to the 12z

https://i.imgur.com/p096sDx.gif?1

But the new LLC was found even further east than where the 18z GFS was started.

[caneman]

Interesting part about the 18z GFS run is that it was started further west based on the old LLC.

So probably need to throw it out. When does Euro have landfall?

[FLpanhandle91]

Interesting part about the 18z GFS run is that it was started further west based on the old LLC.

So probably need to throw it out. When does Euro jave landfall?

Absolutely do not throw this GFS run out.

[CrazyC83]

The storm that really comes to mind with this setup is Hurricane Kate from 1985. What was the last, stronger hurricane to hit the Big Bend area?

[caneman]

Interesting part about the 18z GFS run is that it was started further west based on the old LLC.

So probably need to throw it out. When does Euro jave landfall?

Absolutely do not throw this GFS run out.

Why? If it analyzed too far west?

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like it did show a relocation further east compared to the 12z

https://i.imgur.com/p096sDx.gif?1

But the new LLC was found even further east than where the 18z GFS was started.

I really don't think that will matter, the Gfs made the adjustment pretty well and it didn't result in any major changes upstream.

The biggest differences are how fast it makes LF and I would give the edge to the Gfs there. Euro has a pretty bad slow bias and the extra 24 hrs seems dubious given the pattern.

Unless the steering currents break down, there's no reason why Michael would take so long to move north.

[LarryWx]

As of 8 AM EDT Wednesday, the 12Z Euro is at 26.5N, 87.3W, the 12Z UKMET is at 27.5N, 85.1W, and the 18Z GFS is at 29.0N, 87.3W. So, the 18Z GFS is then a whopping 175 miles N of the 12Z Euro and the UKMET is 150 miles ENE of the 12Z Euro! That's major disagreement at day 3!

[Frank P]

Well the FV3-GFS 18z is running and at h30 it’s a tad east of the 12z run...

[DestinHurricane]

Looks like it did show a relocation further east compared to the 12z

https://i.imgur.com/p096sDx.gif?1

But the new LLC was found even further east than where the 18z GFS was started.

I really don't think that will matter, the Gfs made the adjustment pretty well and it didn't result in any major changes upstream.

The biggest differences are how fast it makes LF and I would give the edge to the Gfs there. Euro has a pretty bad slow bias and the extra 24 hrs seems dubious given the pattern.

Unless the steering currents break down, there's no reason why Michael would take so long to move north.

So a slower storm ends up farther east?

[hurricaneCW]

But the new LLC was found even further east than where the 18z GFS was started.

I really don't think that will matter, the Gfs made the adjustment pretty well and it didn't result in any major changes upstream.

The biggest differences are how fast it makes LF and I would give the edge to the Gfs there. Euro has a pretty bad slow bias and the extra 24 hrs seems dubious given the pattern.

Unless the steering currents break down, there's no reason why Michael would take so long to move north.

So a slower storm ends up farther east?

Most likely, doesn't seem to affect its intensity too much though. Could still be a Cat 2-3 regardless.