ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

No doubt that track and intensity brings a major surge event. Not all that many landfalls that strong on the eastern panhandle to compare to, but practically any landfalling Gulf storm pushes a surge into Cedar Key, etc.

[BobHarlem]

It sure looks like they just took the 11AM Forecast and shifted all the points 1 degree east for the 5pm. Punting i guess until new model runs happen.

[psyclone]

Welp, Tampa's chance of seeing TS winds doubled from 17% at the 11AM advisory to 34% at the 5PM, and for the first time a chance of hurricane force winds, albeit very low at 2%.

At a minimum, this is going to be a serious surge event along the west coast from Pinellas north.

It certainly has some potential. Very reminiscent of Hermine which necessitated a late extention of TS warnings down the west coast due to a big windfield on the right side. A south wind really stacks the water efficiently on the west coast with that risk rising as one gets north of the bay. We still have enough time for subtle east shifts to escalate things a good bit. at the very least our margin of safety has degraded to some extent today. definitely monitoring from here for sure.

[FLeastcoast]

What do you all think it might be like in Gainesville,FL?

[ozonepete]

What do you all think it might be like in Gainesville,FL?

Could be a lot of wind. Keep checking back.

[NDG]

Serious dry air to the west could keep it from getting symmetrical in the short term

https://i.imgur.com/So9dpUy.jpg

SHIPS shows no problems with dry air through at least the next 72 hours and don't forget that this system started from a monsoonal trough so is attached to deep tropical moisture all the way from the EPAC.

[ronjon]

Welp, Tampa's chance of seeing TS winds doubled from 17% at the 11AM advisory to 34% at the 5PM, and for the first time a chance of hurricane force winds, albeit very low at 2%.

At a minimum, this is going to be a serious surge event along the west coast from Pinellas north.

It certainly has some potential. Very reminiscent of Hermine which necessitated a late extention of TS warnings down the west coast due to a big windfield on the right side. A south wind really stacks the water efficiently on the west coast with that risk rising as one gets north of the bay. We still have enough time for subtle east shifts to escalate things a good bit. at the very least our margin of safety has degraded to some extent today. definitely monitoring from here for sure.

I'm definitely getting concerned on the nature coast. This could be Hermine 2 except as a major hurricane. We had about 4-6 feet of surge from Hermine up here. I had water in my ground floor.

[jaxfladude]

I will not be surprised if the NHC will now call for a high end Cat 1 hurricane with SHIPS now calling for 80 knots at landfall and because it has strengthened more than anticipated this afternoon.
Hopefully they will point out that the global models remain stronger than that.

Given the apparent lack of much shear, I would not be surprised if it was a strong Cat 3 at landfall. I went with 100 mph winds an hour ago. Near Panama City. Could track a bit farther east, though. Apalachicola?

Possible wxman57. I would not rule out a Cedar Key potential landfall.

What would a Cedar Key landfall mean for NE FLA/SE GA area?

[ozonepete]

Given the apparent lack of much shear, I would not be surprised if it was a strong Cat 3 at landfall. I went with 100 mph winds an hour ago. Near Panama City. Could track a bit farther east, though. Apalachicola?

Possible wxman57. I would not rule out a Cedar Key potential landfall.

What would a Cedar Key landfall mean for NE FLA/SE GA area?

It would mean you get a lot of wind and heavy rain. We wouldn't know until Monday how much.

[HurricaneBelle]

What do you all think it might be like in Gainesville,FL?

According to the NHC's 5PM advisory, Gainesville's looking at 45% chance of low-end (40-57 MPH) TS winds, a 15% chance of high-end (58-74) TS winds, and a 6% chance of hurricane winds. So the weather should be at least nasty there mid-week, possibly worse.

(Also a chance for my annual PSA to exhort people to look at the TS Wind probability product the NHC puts out, very informative especially if you want to know who your area specifically is going to be potentially impacted).

[ObsessedMiami]

I wonder if it gets stronger and tracks more east, that right side usual "comma" of squally weather gets more intense for the whole peninsula

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed if Michael landfalls in Cedar Key, that would give Northeast Florida not only potential of very heavy rain but also strong winds, with the region being on the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. Northeast Florida also in this scenario would see a risk of tornadoes, as with any landfalling tropical cyclone.

[BobHarlem]

You can see what a cat 1 does to Cedar Key (Hermine from 2016, which actually made landfall further north in the big bend closer to Tallahassee) Mark Sudduth's surge cam from there back then:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5R1Uhm5Wvo

(10 minutes in or so the camera gets "decked")

[artist]

Yes indeed if Michael landfalls in Cedar Key, that would give Northeast Florida not only potential of very heavy rain but also strong winds, with the region being on the stronger right front quadrant of the storm. Northeast Florida also in this scenario would see a risk of tornadoes, as with any landfalling tropical cyclone.

And from Miami NWS-

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tropical Storm Michael is currently forecast to become a hurricane
as it lifts north through the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico
early this week. This system is not expected to have a direct impact
on South Florida. Deep moisture will bring widespread squally weather
through at least mid week. The main hazards will be gusty winds,
flooding, and isolated tornadoes.

[pgoss11]

Even with the new relocation of COC a full degree east, the 18z GFS looks like it will landfall west of the 12z run. Hmmm.

[Nimbus]

At least recon is finding a somewhat shallow broad pressure gradient for now.
Unfortunately the dry shear on the west side of the storm will likely be gone in 48 hours.
All it would take is a rapid intensification cycle after 48 hours and this would be a different storm with stronger ridging.

[Hurricaneman]

Even with the new relocation of COC a full degree east, the 18z GFS looks like it will landfall west of the 12z run. Hmmm.

It’s got the pressure right but it’s basing off of the western circulation which would make the initialization bogus as far as location

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the previous center from the last pass is beginning to open up and stretch out in favor of the likely stronger circ to its east..

[cycloneye]

There is the new pass.998 mbs.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the previous center from the last pass is beginning to open up and stretch out in favor of the likely stronger circ to its east..

Yep looks like some more center reformations to the east are possible. I think the GFS is too far west for that reason. Consensus of the Euro and UKMET may be what to go with.