ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

This stronger center is a whopping full degree EAST of the 11 AM EDT NHC track as well as east of the non UKMET 12Z model consensus. OTOH, this is actually due south of where the 12Z UKMET has it as of 8 PM EDT this evening. Advantage may be going to the 12Z UKMET very shortly here. Check this 12Z GFS vs 12Z UKMET comparison through hour 12 or 8 PM EDT this evening:

- hour 0 (8 AM EDT): 12Z GFS at 18.7N, 87.0W. 12Z UKMET is then placed at 18.7N, 86.7W (pretty similar).
- hour 6 (2 PM EDT): 12Z GFS 19.4N, 85.6W. So, GFS shifted ENE to near this 2nd stronger center that the recon found. No UKMET hour 6 available.
- **hour 12 (8 PM EDT): 12Z GFS 20.0N, 86.2W. So, the GFS shifts him back NW as of 8 PM. Compare this to the 8PM EDT 12Z UKMET position of 19.5N, 85.6W, which is due north of the recon's stronger low.

So, it would be great if there is a recon position at 8 PM!!

[blp]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the new center fix is about a full degree farther East than forecast at any point through 72 hours by the NHC in the 11am advisory.

Forget about the forecast track in the short term, the GFS showed this reformation very well yet the final track is still about the same.

[]https://i.imgur.com/MGAQVB0.gif[/url]

You are correct, but then according to the next 12hrs it is going to pinball back NW. Let's see if that happens. None of the models nor the ensembles have it crossing the tip of Cuba which is at 85W. The closest is the Ukmet which is the eastern most model. So lets see what happens because right now it is at the eastern most point according to the models.

[NDG]

Michael continues to improve little by little on satellite, taking advantage of the very deep warm waters of the NW Caribbean.

[seahawkjd]

I will not be surprised if the NHC will now call for a high end Cat 1 hurricane with SHIPS now calling for 80 knots at landfall and because it has strengthened more than anticipated this afternoon.
Hopefully they will point out that the global models remain stronger than that.

Given the apparent lack of much shear, I would not be surprised if it was a strong Cat 3 at landfall. I went with 100 mph winds an hour ago. Near Panama City. Could track a bit farther east, though. Apalachicola?

Possible wxman57. I would not rule out a Cedar Key potential landfall.

Once this thing starts moving through the country, how much rain and wind are we realistically looking at in NC?

[wxman57]

Once this thing starts moving through the country, how much rain and wind are we realistically looking at in NC?

Euro has only 1-2 inches. Could be 3-5 inches, though.

[BobHarlem]

NHC is probably going to run up to 5pm on this advisory, recon is probably changing it around a bit.

[typhoonty]

Greetings from Tallahassee!

We here at FSU meteorology department are very concerned with Michael. The chief meteorologist from around here are nervously texting and communicating with the department as well as NWS Tallahassee which has put forth a very strong headline to begin the AFD.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
326 PM EDT Sun Oct 7 2018

...PREPARE NOW FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
HURRICANE MICHAEL BY MID-WEEK...

At least where we are located is the same building as the NWS and as such is required to be stormproof so I am comfortable with riding out the storm here. However, the city itself handles strong winds extremely poorly, and a Cat 2+ would spell major trouble for this area. Personally, I'm going 105 mph with a landfall between Appalachicola and Carrabelle. Never underestimate the ability for GOMEX storms to RI in October. I can't imagine Levi's emotion, but being on the roof of the met building watching him soak up the eyewall during Hermine, he's probably floored. So glad to have him part of the university.

[chaser1]

I will not be surprised if the NHC will now call for a high end Cat 1 hurricane with SHIPS now calling for 80 knots at landfall and because it has strengthened more than anticipated this afternoon.
Hopefully they will point out that the global models remain stronger than that.

Yea, I agree. In fact, I wouldn't be A bit shocked at all if this landfalls as a Cat 2 hurricane.........

Dead on. I'm guessing a Cat 2 land-falling between Carrabelle and St. Marks

[ozonepete]

Given the apparent lack of much shear, I would not be surprised if it was a strong Cat 3 at landfall. I went with 100 mph winds an hour ago. Near Panama City. Could track a bit farther east, though. Apalachicola?

Possible wxman57. I would not rule out a Cedar Key potential landfall.

Once this thing starts moving through the country, how much rain and wind are we realistically looking at in NC?

I know you're really concerned, but it's just way too early yet to know.

[ColdMiser123]

Likely some decent changes being made if an advisory is taking longer than usual.

[xironman]

i think the size of the wind field is pretty impressive, thought it would be more compact. Could build some serious surge going across the gulf into FL's bend.

[cycloneye]

Is 45 kts at 5 PM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT

[cycloneye]

New peak is 85 kts.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.2N 85.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.

[Aric Dunn]

they will wait for the 00z guidance. their last chnace before being in the 72 window..

[HurricaneBelle]

Welp, Tampa's chance of seeing TS winds doubled from 17% at the 11AM advisory to 34% at the 5PM, and for the first time a chance of hurricane force winds, albeit very low at 2%.

At a minimum, this is going to be a serious surge event along the west coast from Pinellas north.

[Ken711]

I will not be surprised if the NHC will now call for a high end Cat 1 hurricane with SHIPS now calling for 80 knots at landfall and because it has strengthened more than anticipated this afternoon.
Hopefully they will point out that the global models remain stronger than that.

Given the apparent lack of much shear, I would not be surprised if it was a strong Cat 3 at landfall. I went with 100 mph winds an hour ago. Near Panama City. Could track a bit farther east, though. Apalachicola?

Possible wxman57. I would not rule out a Cedar Key potential landfall.

100 mph is what the NHC says in their latest discussion as well.

INIT 07/2100Z 19.2N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 23.2N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 85.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 33.7N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[KWT]

As I said yesterday, the track error in these systems is in the main usually too far west in these types of system s. I still think there maybe some east shifts yet down the line but we will see.

NHC forecast looks more reasonable in trms of strength, but it's entering waters famed for utterly explosive development...so we will need to wait and see.

[northjaxpro]

Welp, Tampa's chance of seeing TS winds doubled from 17% at the 11AM advisory to 34% at the 5PM, and for the first time a chance of hurricane force winds, albeit very low at 2%.

At a minimum, this is going to be a serious surge event along the west coast from Pinellas north.

It is looking that way. I really am very concerned about the surge potential into Apalachee Bay if the eastern track verifies.

[xironman]

Serious dry air to the west could keep it from getting symmetrical in the short term

[Evil Jeremy]

Serious dry air to the west could keep it from getting symmetrical in the short term

https://i.imgur.com/So9dpUy.jpg

If it doesn't build up on the left side, the LLC is going to be continually drawn towards the deepest convection to it's right.