ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[Cypresso]

Yikes, 12z Euro 963mb at 72 hours...

Close to Sandy's 940. Down to 950@96 hrs

[ColdMiser123]

949 at 96 hours, shortly before landfall.

[gatorcane]

West coast of Florida on the fringe now from Tampa north:

[WAcyclone]

I really like Maue's updating ECMWF graphic. It shows everything you need to know about this particular run:



Link: http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_michael.png

[Kazmit]

Hopefully this run convinces the NHC to raise the forecast peak to at least cat 2 for 5pm.

[boca]

Can someone posted a graphic of the UKMET plz

[NDG]

Closer look at the Euro, even stronger than last night's run.

[cjrciadt]

That turn

[ColdMiser123]

Hopefully this run convinces the NHC to raise the forecast peak to at least cat 2 for 5pm.

HWRF and HMON being way weaker at 12z makes the current NHC intensity forecast a reasonable middle ground at the moment.

[DestinHurricane]

12Z Euro more evidence destin is in the clear

[otowntiger]

I really like Maue's updating ECMWF graphic. It shows everything you need to know about this particular run:

https://i.imgur.com/s74UA51.png

Link: http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_michael.png

That track and intensity would bring a heck of a blow to Tallahassee. If they thought Hermine brought down a lot of trees- this would be at least twice as bad.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yikes, 12z Euro 963mb at 72 hours...

Close to Sandy's 940. Down to 950@96 hrs

Unlike Sandy this would be quite a small storm; the winds would probably be closer to 105-115 knots.

[gatorcane]

Will the EPS ensembles also shift east?

[Aric Dunn]

Can someone posted a graphic of the UKMET plz

here you go..

[otowntiger]

Hopefully this run convinces the NHC to raise the forecast peak to at least cat 2 for 5pm.

HWRF and HMON being way weaker at 12z makes the current NHC intensity forecast a reasonable middle ground at the moment.

Yeah, I don’t buy the cat 3/4 intensity forecasts by the models just yet. Or at least not at landfall. I’ve seen many a strong hurricane rapidly de-intensify prior to making landfall in this area, i.e. Dennis, Ivan, Opal, etc. now of course these storms did bring quite the surge.

[ronjon]

This is sickening with each model run inching eastward. Reminds me of the Irma runs inching westward last year. Ugh! Ukmet remains stubbornly consistent with Cross City hit. Euro keeps shifting that way. NorthJax you may see this storm yet.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[NDG]

A closer look at the Euro, now closer to the UKMET.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a much larger Charley.. or a Wilma or OPAL .. or the list goes on..

[chaser1]

West coast of Florida on the fringe now from Tampa north:

Hmmmm, so here's where we are with the 12Z Euro:
Overall net result is a little stronger and landfall shifting slightly to the east.
Yet, the EURO 24 hr. forecast has Michael immediately off the N.E. tip of Yucatan near 21.5N and 87.0 W ???

ASSUMING that the westernmost vorticity (or the broader overall gyre itself), has less of an influence toward temporarily bending Michael's near-term track toward the northwest, then one would have to believe tonight's 0Z EURO run (or tomm. 12Z run) would bear out a 1-2 degree shift further to the east. I haven't carefully examined the UK track (and right or wrong) I'm guessing it's short term track has no such left northwest jog before resuming a northward track.