ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[robbielyn]

Panama City to St. Marks was where I was suggesting landfall 2 day's ago and beginning to think those point need be nudged to Carrabelle to Steinhatchee instead. I'm gonna guess recon will provide enough data to support an upgrade to "Michael" by early evening, but will confirm a broad ENE to WSW tilted orientation. I'm also guessing that with an eventual eastward reformation to occur by late tonight/early tomorrow, the EURO will shift at least a little to the east by tonight's 0Z run, with most/all other models following suit by their respective 6Z-12Z runs tomm. a.m. I'm a little concerned that following an acceleration towards the north (and then NNE), that some chance of ridging will build in along the mid Atlantic seaboard thus causing a possible decrease in the storm's forward speed as it approaches landfall. Aside from the obvious exacerbation of storm surge impact this could act as catalyst for some additional hours for further strengthening as well.

uh it's already Michael?!

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS mean is actually about 40 miles west of the 6Z GEFS mean at landfall in the panhandle.

[p1nheadlarry]

Don't like how the models are intensifying this thing up till landfall.

NHC is playing things very cautiously here, perhaps too cautiously as models show much more rapid intensification.

Yea and they ramped up Florence to a Cat 4 to hit a place that rarely sees them.

[chaser1]

Stepping back for just a moment, it's key to remember we don't have a fairly defined COC. Whether that occur a bit to the west or more to the east, I have to think this will resolve itself between this evening and tomm. morning. I'm pretty sure that most if not all models will suddenly cluster around a very tight consensus at this point especially in light of the relative small time frame we're all looking at between upgrade and final landfall. (As a side-note, the S2K website now seems to be operating normally - at least from my perspective).

[Aric Dunn]

Panama City to St. Marks was where I was suggesting landfall 2 day's ago and beginning to think those point need be nudged to Carrabelle to Steinhatchee instead. I'm gonna guess recon will provide enough data to support an upgrade to "Michael" by early evening, but will confirm a broad ENE to WSW tilted orientation. I'm also guessing that with an eventual eastward reformation to occur by late tonight/early tomorrow, the EURO will shift at least a little to the east by tonight's 0Z run, with most/all other models following suit by their respective 6Z-12Z runs tomm. a.m. I'm a little concerned that following an acceleration towards the north (and then NNE), that some chance of ridging will build in along the mid Atlantic seaboard thus causing a possible decrease in the storm's forward speed as it approaches landfall. Aside from the obvious exacerbation of storm surge impact this could act as catalyst for some additional hours for further strengthening as well.

uh it's already Michael?!

Yeah it is already MIchael and there are two vorts rotating around still. the eastern one will take over shortly.

[chaser1]

Panama City to St. Marks was where I was suggesting landfall 2 day's ago and beginning to think those point need be nudged to Carrabelle to Steinhatchee instead. I'm gonna guess recon will provide enough data to support an upgrade to "Michael" by early evening, but will confirm a broad ENE to WSW tilted orientation. I'm also guessing that with an eventual eastward reformation to occur by late tonight/early tomorrow, the EURO will shift at least a little to the east by tonight's 0Z run, with most/all other models following suit by their respective 6Z-12Z runs tomm. a.m. I'm a little concerned that following an acceleration towards the north (and then NNE), that some chance of ridging will build in along the mid Atlantic seaboard thus causing a possible decrease in the storm's forward speed as it approaches landfall. Aside from the obvious exacerbation of storm surge impact this could act as catalyst for some additional hours for further strengthening as well.

uh it's already Michael?!

LOL? I obviously missed something between the 10:00 a.m. discussion and now? I now see the 1:00 pm intermediate that NHC put out.... yet I don't see any special statement announcing the upgrade??? I'm confused.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro initializes with competing vorts:

[Aric Dunn]

12Z Euro initializes with competing vorts:

https://i.postimg.cc/9X6gmktr/ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_1.png

well yeah...

[Aric Dunn]

Panama City to St. Marks was where I was suggesting landfall 2 day's ago and beginning to think those point need be nudged to Carrabelle to Steinhatchee instead. I'm gonna guess recon will provide enough data to support an upgrade to "Michael" by early evening, but will confirm a broad ENE to WSW tilted orientation. I'm also guessing that with an eventual eastward reformation to occur by late tonight/early tomorrow, the EURO will shift at least a little to the east by tonight's 0Z run, with most/all other models following suit by their respective 6Z-12Z runs tomm. a.m. I'm a little concerned that following an acceleration towards the north (and then NNE), that some chance of ridging will build in along the mid Atlantic seaboard thus causing a possible decrease in the storm's forward speed as it approaches landfall. Aside from the obvious exacerbation of storm surge impact this could act as catalyst for some additional hours for further strengthening as well.

uh it's already Michael?!

LOL? I obviously missed something between the 10:00 a.m. discussion and now? I now see the 1:00 pm intermediate that NHC put out.... yet I don't see any special statement announcing the upgrade??? I'm confused.

it was upgraded at the 11am advisory

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro is slower/SSE of its 0Z run. Odds pretty high it will be slower & E of its 0Z run. Also, it’s slightly stronger than its 0Z run.

[KUEFC]

12Z Euro is slower/SSE of its 0Z run. Odds pretty high it will be slower & E of its 0Z run. Also, it’s slightly stronger than its 0Z run.

Doesn’t appear to be MUCH different though?

[storm4u]

Euro is slower than every other model.. think we know in the next day or so which is right

[Hammy]

Don't like how the models are intensifying this thing up till landfall.

NHC is playing things very cautiously here, perhaps too cautiously as models show much more rapid intensification.

I'm hoping they go at least to Cat 2 on the next advisory (the one most people tune into because it comes out around the evening news time) so people start getting the idea that this may not just be an in-and-out 'weak hurricane'

[robbielyn]

Panama City to St. Marks was where I was suggesting landfall 2 day's ago and beginning to think those point need be nudged to Carrabelle to Steinhatchee instead. I'm gonna guess recon will provide enough data to support an upgrade to "Michael" by early evening, but will confirm a broad ENE to WSW tilted orientation. I'm also guessing that with an eventual eastward reformation to occur by late tonight/early tomorrow, the EURO will shift at least a little to the east by tonight's 0Z run, with most/all other models following suit by their respective 6Z-12Z runs tomm. a.m. I'm a little concerned that following an acceleration towards the north (and then NNE), that some chance of ridging will build in along the mid Atlantic seaboard thus causing a possible decrease in the storm's forward speed as it approaches landfall. Aside from the obvious exacerbation of storm surge impact this could act as catalyst for some additional hours for further strengthening as well.

uh it's already Michael?!

Yeah it is already MIchael and there are two vorts rotating around still. the eastern one will take over shortly.

that's where ukmet initialized from the Eastern vort.

[PTrackerLA]

Yikes, 12z Euro 963mb at 72 hours...

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro Hour 72: definitely coming in slower and will hit FL a good bit further east than its 0Z run.

[NDG]

So far the 12z Euro is throwing a monkey wrench at us, it might end up like the UKMET's track?

[PSUHiker31]

It looks like the 12Z Euro chose the western vort to be more dominant. If that's the case, it's already looking wrong

[boca]

Can someone posted a graphic of the UKMET plz

[gatorcane]

So far the 12z Euro is throwing a monkey wrench at us, it might end up like the UKMET's track?

Euro shifts east towards UKMET....