ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[ColdMiser123]

UKMET a bit stronger than last night at landfall. Last night was closer to 960 mb.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 18.7N 86.7W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 19.5N 85.6W 1000 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 20.5N 85.4W 996 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 36 22.2N 85.2W 979 59
1200UTC 09.10.2018 48 23.8N 85.5W 974 59
0000UTC 10.10.2018 60 25.5N 85.5W 971 59
1200UTC 10.10.2018 72 27.5N 85.1W 963 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 29.5N 83.7W 945 79
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 31.5N 81.8W 968 62
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 33.4N 78.9W 960 66
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 35.5N 75.2W 953 75
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 38.5N 69.1W 945 77
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 43.3N 59.8W 947 76

[kevin mathis]

Apparently all we had to do to fix the problem was go to the isitdown website. lol

0Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/9b2BBCu.gif

Euro with a 945mb landfall 3 days out...thats concerning

Still not right! Not really the time for server issues!

[chaser1]

Apparently all we had to do to fix the problem was go to the isitdown website. lol

0Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/9b2BBCu.gif

Euro with a 945mb landfall 3 days out...thats concerning

Still not right! Not really the time for server issues!

Correct. Still bounces from loading very slowly, to not loading at all - and that's on my phone. On my desktop, it wouldn't even go to the site

[kevin mathis]

UKMET a bit stronger than last night at landfall. Last night was closer to 960 mb.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 18.7N 86.7W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 19.5N 85.6W 1000 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 20.5N 85.4W 996 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 36 22.2N 85.2W 979 59
1200UTC 09.10.2018 48 23.8N 85.5W 974 59
0000UTC 10.10.2018 60 25.5N 85.5W 971 59
1200UTC 10.10.2018 72 27.5N 85.1W 963 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 29.5N 83.7W 945 79
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 31.5N 81.8W 968 62
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 33.4N 78.9W 960 66
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 35.5N 75.2W 953 75
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 38.5N 69.1W 945 77
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 43.3N 59.8W 947 76

Landfall at Steinhatchee @ 80-85knts
Not saying this verifies, but if it were to, not a great place for a strengthening TC to landfall. Very low, flat. Tampa Bayarea has significant surge issues with this scenario..

[ColdMiser123]

UKMET a bit stronger than last night at landfall. Last night was closer to 960 mb.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 18.7N 86.7W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 19.5N 85.6W 1000 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 20.5N 85.4W 996 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 36 22.2N 85.2W 979 59
1200UTC 09.10.2018 48 23.8N 85.5W 974 59
0000UTC 10.10.2018 60 25.5N 85.5W 971 59
1200UTC 10.10.2018 72 27.5N 85.1W 963 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 29.5N 83.7W 945 79
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 31.5N 81.8W 968 62
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 33.4N 78.9W 960 66
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 35.5N 75.2W 953 75
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 38.5N 69.1W 945 77
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 43.3N 59.8W 947 76

Landfall at Steinhatchee @ 80-85knts
Not saying this verifies, but if it were to, not a great place for a strengthening TC to landfall. Very low, flat. Tampa Bayarea has significant surge issues with this scenario..

These UKMET text products tend to underestimate wind. I don't recall these ever showing numbers above 100 KT even for Florence as a Cat 4. A 945 hPa high end Cat 1/low end Cat 2 would have to have an incredibly massive wind field, and would be unprecedented for a completely tropical system.

Those pressures only get that low with such low wind speeds for systems transitioning into extratropical storms.

[LarryWx]

What is with the UKMET on still another run being so far right of the consensus throughout its route in the GOM, which is why it landfalls in the Big Bend vs the consensus in the FL panhandle? What makes this more mysterious is that the UKMET has tended to be the furthest west/left with storms in the past.

[kevin mathis]

UKMET a bit stronger than last night at landfall. Last night was closer to 960 mb.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 18.7N 86.7W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 19.5N 85.6W 1000 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 20.5N 85.4W 996 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 36 22.2N 85.2W 979 59
1200UTC 09.10.2018 48 23.8N 85.5W 974 59
0000UTC 10.10.2018 60 25.5N 85.5W 971 59
1200UTC 10.10.2018 72 27.5N 85.1W 963 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 29.5N 83.7W 945 79
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 31.5N 81.8W 968 62
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 33.4N 78.9W 960 66
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 35.5N 75.2W 953 75
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 38.5N 69.1W 945 77
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 43.3N 59.8W 947 76

Landfall at Steinhatchee @ 80-85knts
Not saying this verifies, but if it were to, not a great place for a strengthening TC to landfall. Very low, flat. Tampa Bayarea has significant surge issues with this scenario..

These UKMET text products tend to underestimate wind. I don't recall these ever showing numbers above 100 KT even for Florence as a Cat 4.

Not a meteorologist...but knowing its October, knowing we have a developing TC in NW Caribbean, and looking at the idea of the center will perhaps re-locate to the east under that constant thunderstorm activity off to its east. I see this following the NHC thought, but 50-75 or so miles east of the current track. My thought is Panama City to Cedar Key.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[robbielyn]

whatever happened with that Australian model that was good with irma or maybe it was hermine.

[pcbjr]

UKMET a bit stronger than last night at landfall. Last night was closer to 960 mb.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 86.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2018 0 18.7N 86.7W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 12 19.5N 85.6W 1000 34
1200UTC 08.10.2018 24 20.5N 85.4W 996 44
0000UTC 09.10.2018 36 22.2N 85.2W 979 59
1200UTC 09.10.2018 48 23.8N 85.5W 974 59
0000UTC 10.10.2018 60 25.5N 85.5W 971 59
1200UTC 10.10.2018 72 27.5N 85.1W 963 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 84 29.5N 83.7W 945 79
1200UTC 11.10.2018 96 31.5N 81.8W 968 62
0000UTC 12.10.2018 108 33.4N 78.9W 960 66
1200UTC 12.10.2018 120 35.5N 75.2W 953 75
0000UTC 13.10.2018 132 38.5N 69.1W 945 77
1200UTC 13.10.2018 144 43.3N 59.8W 947 76

Landfall at Steinhatchee @ 80-85knts
Not saying this verifies, but if it were to, not a great place for a strengthening TC to landfall. Very low, flat. Tampa Bayarea has significant surge issues with this scenario..

As much as I disdain IMBY posts, if this were to come in at Steinhatchee, and if it is strong on the east side, that would wreack some havoc all across north central FL ...

[hurricaneCW]

Don't like how the models are intensifying this thing up till landfall.

NHC is playing things very cautiously here, perhaps too cautiously as models show much more rapid intensification.

[northjaxpro]

What is with the UKMET on still another run being so far right of the consensus throughout its route in the GOM, which is why it landfalls in the Big Bend vs the consensus in the FL panhandle? What makes this more mysterious is that the UKMET has tended to be the furthest west/left with storms in the past.

I am watching this very closely to see if the UKMET will come close to verifying with thus. I like the UKMET and I would not be shocked if it comes close to verifying . We will know soon enough.

How much the trough digs will play a critical role. If the trough deepens more than anticipated, the UKMET may be closer to being right with Michael coming in a bit farther east.

[kevin mathis]

What is with the UKMET on still another run being so far right of the consensus throughout its route in the GOM, which is why it landfalls in the Big Bend vs the consensus in the FL panhandle? What makes this more mysterious is that the UKMET has tended to be the furthest west/left with storms in the past.

It is initializing the NE portion of the broad low...Roughly eastern part of the channel. all others initializing the NHC center fix...Which they state is elongated, and could move/re-locate during consolidation.

[chaser1]

What is with the UKMET on still another run being so far right of the consensus throughout its route in the GOM, which is why it landfalls in the Big Bend vs the consensus in the FL panhandle? What makes this more mysterious is that the UKMET has tended to be the furthest west/left with storms in the past.

I don't think it's so entirely "off" Larry. Look at the 24 hour forecast verses NHC. UK has the storm a full degree south and east of the NHC forecast point for that same time. May not seem like much but at a projected current 5 mph forward speed (which I doubt and assume to still be consolidating), that is nearly a 10 hour different in time. The slower "Fourteen" is to isolate a COC, the less quickly it is apt to feel the increasingly strong mid level tug northward. A 12 hour or so delay would seem to imply that much more of a Northeast track toward the end of it's trek in the E. Gulf. The idea of a near stall and then sharp turn toward Tampa doesn't seem altogether crazy either however I think that type of solution would require a MUCH more delayed organization and exit past the W. tip of Cuba around Wednesday some time. I'm not sure I'd imagine that late an exit from the NW Caribbean. Boy, sure does show just how much timing is everything with these systems, huh??

[Evil Jeremy]

The more UKMET goes against the grain, the more I tend to look at it... IIRC it handled Alberto very well, and this is a similar situation.

[gatorcane]

Euro's ensembles from last night, continued to trend east from previous runs.

https://i.imgur.com/JdW5Xhq.png

Interesting how some of the stronger ones are well east in the Eastern Gulf not far from West coast of Florida, wonder if we see any more shifts today from the EPS?

[Aric Dunn]

Despite the GFS winds not being as high the pressure is still very low.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z FV3 is only a hair east with a western Panhandle hit, which is still west of the reliable consensus. It continues to hit slightly later, which continues its recent trend of landfalling later. Still, it landfalls significantly earlier than most other models, which is probably why it is so much further west. The contrast between it and the 12Z UMKET, which landfalls some 24 hours later and is nearly 200 miles to the east, is mind boggling.

[Ken711]

The 12Z FV3 is only a hair east with a western Panhandle hit, which is still west of the reliable consensus. It continues to hit slightly later, which continues its recent trend of landfalling later. Still, it landfalls significantly earlier than most other models, which is probably why it is so much further west. The contrast between it and the 12Z UMKET, which landfalls some 24 hours later is nearly 200 miles to the east, is mind boggling.

That large a time difference between those models is puzzling.

[chaser1]

Panama City to St. Marks was where I was suggesting landfall 2 day's ago and beginning to think those point need be nudged to Carrabelle to Steinhatchee instead. I'm gonna guess recon will provide enough data to support an upgrade to "Michael" by early evening, but will confirm a broad ENE to WSW tilted orientation. I'm also guessing that with an eventual eastward reformation to occur by late tonight/early tomorrow, the EURO will shift at least a little to the east by tonight's 0Z run, with most/all other models following suit by their respective 6Z-12Z runs tomm. a.m. I'm a little concerned that following an acceleration towards the north (and then NNE), that some chance of ridging will build in along the mid Atlantic seaboard thus causing a possible decrease in the storm's forward speed as it approaches landfall. Aside from the obvious exacerbation of storm surge impact this could act as catalyst for some additional hours for further strengthening as well.

[Frank P]

HWRF shifted west from PC to Destin, weaker but looks like possibly a Cat 2, 967 mb