ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

Apparently all we had to do to fix the problem was go to the isitdown website. lol

0Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/9b2BBCu.gif

Euro with a 945mb landfall 3 days out...thats concerning

[NDG]

A west shift either way. There’s not many miles between Navarre and Destin. CMC did trend east but it’s still a bit west from the other models

CMC is the last model to depend on, you should not be worrying so much because it has a track over your area especially with the UKMET (which is more reliable than the CMC) even further east than the GFS & Euro.

The CMC hasn’t been that inaccurate this season. I believe they nailed the last storm

What last storm?

[northjaxpro]

Apparently all we had to do to fix the problem was go to the isitdown website. lol

0Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/9b2BBCu.gif

Euro with a 945mb landfall 3 days out...thats concerning

Very concerning.

[bella_may]

CMC is the last model to depend on, you should not be worrying so much because it has a track over your area especially with the UKMET (which is more reliable than the CMC) even further east than the GFS & Euro.

The CMC hasn’t been that inaccurate this season. I believe they nailed the last storm

What last storm?

Gordon. I could be wrong but I think they had the track pretty accurate before some of the major models did. But like I said it’s too early to pin point a track when it hasn’t even formed yet. Could go 100 miles east or west

[Hurricaneman]

The CMC hasn’t been that inaccurate this season. I believe they nailed the last storm

What last storm?

Gordon. I could be wrong but I think they had the track pretty accurate before some of the major models did. But like I said it’s too early to pin point a track when it hasn’t even formed yet. Could go 100 miles east or west

Actually it has formed, its about 20 to 30 miles off the Yucatan

[ScottNAtlanta]

The CMC hasn’t been that inaccurate this season. I believe they nailed the last storm

What last storm?

Gordon. I could be wrong but I think they had the track pretty accurate before some of the major models did. But like I said it’s too early to pin point a track when it hasn’t even formed yet. Could go 100 miles east or west

We are talking 3 to 4 days out. Thats not a lot of time if everyone is trying to prepare at the same time. You dont have as much advance warning as with Florence

[kevin mathis]

The CMC hasn’t been that inaccurate this season. I believe they nailed the last storm

What last storm?

Gordon. I could be wrong but I think they had the track pretty accurate before some of the major models did. But like I said it’s too early to pin point a track when it hasn’t even formed yet. Could go 100 miles east or west

50- 100 miles means a lot too....ask the 3 million persons in the Tampa Bay area

[bella_may]

What last storm?

Gordon. I could be wrong but I think they had the track pretty accurate before some of the major models did. But like I said it’s too early to pin point a track when it hasn’t even formed yet. Could go 100 miles east or west

50- 100 miles means a lot too....ask the 3 million persons in the Tampa Bay area

I agree. No one should let their guard down yet. That’s all I was trying to say

[gatorcane]

NAM turns this east in the EGOM at 84 hours:

[kevin mathis]

By no means do I think this is a direct landfall issue for Tampa Bay, although it can't be 100% ruled out. However, if it is further east on its approach, Tampa Bay gets a good sideswipe. Especially if its lopsided at all, or turns earlier into the Big Bend area. Then we have surge issues and the east and south sides of storm as it goes by.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

A good chunk of UKMET ensemble members take the storm through Tampa. Its obviously an eastern outlier but I think everyone from Mobile to Tampa need to pay attention. Trough timing and speed will be critical as to where the storm turns NE and ultimate landfall.

Ukmet nailed IRMA 5 days out...imo be vigiliant

[TheStormExpert]

A good chunk of UKMET ensemble members take the storm through Tampa. Its obviously an eastern outlier but I think everyone from Mobile to Tampa need to pay attention. Trough timing and speed will be critical as to where the storm turns NE and ultimate landfall.

Ukmet nailed IRMA 5 days out...imo be vigiliant

Surprised to see the UKMET being a right outlier after usually being a left outlier in most cases.

[cjrciadt]

I joined here one year after Charley. I dont want to think about a eastern shifts in track.

[NDG]

The CMC hasn’t been that inaccurate this season. I believe they nailed the last storm

What last storm?

Gordon. I could be wrong but I think they had the track pretty accurate before some of the major models did. But like I said it’s too early to pin point a track when it hasn’t even formed yet. Could go 100 miles east or west

Incorrect, with Gordon the CMC was left biased all along, even more left biased than what the Euro was with it. I understand what you are trying to say that at this point a pin pointed track could go either way but my point is that the CMC is not a good model to go by, if you see future GFS trend your way, by a good 50 miles or more and not just 10-20 miles then it is a cause to raise an eyebrow. But with only a little over 72-84 hrs on landfall I don't see the track shifting that much to the west, if anything more to the east.

[caneman]

Am I correct in thinking that the NAM is not too bad in the short run? UKIE is a bit concerning as its had a nice run the last couple of years.

[NDG]

So far 12z GFS has shifted a little east for landfall pointing towards Panama City, still forecasting it to become a major hurricane.

[NDG]

Am I correct in thinking that the NAM is not too bad in the short run? UKIE is a bit concerning as its had a nice run the last couple of years.

UKMET has not done that well this year. GFS & Euro are still our two best options.

[storm4u]

950mb landfall on the GFS

[ColdMiser123]

Likely a couple mb lower than this on the high resolution maps. One of the strongest runs at landfall yet.

[NDG]

Another thing to point out is that the GFS is persistent in that it will become a hurricane at least by late tomorrow morning. By the way, it is looking likely by the way things are looking on satellite.