ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[bamajammer4eva]

I'm very surprised but glad and thankful that the NHC is sticking with 'just' a strong tropical storm given these model runs. There must be some flaw with all of the globals that make these runs discounted. I hope NHC is right! Here is Panama City's wind forecast based on 00z runs of American models. Dothan, AL is over 90 mph by the 00z GFS

[Aric Dunn]

I'm very surprised but glad and thankful that the NHC is sticking with 'just' a strong tropical storm given these model runs. There must be some flaw with all of the globals that make these runs discounted. I hope NHC is right! Here is Panama City's wind forecast based on 00z runs of American models. Dothan, AL is over 90 mph by the 00z GFS

https://i.imgur.com/3WxNwpo.png

THe NHC has not incorporated the new model runs yet. the 5am advisory should a new TD/TS finally and the intensity forecast will have to go up now that all the models except the CMC and HMON show a deepening hurricane.

they will likely be conservative at first until the 12z models come out to get some run to run consistency. otherwise, because of the time frame there is little room.

if the models show a Cat 3/4 the NHC will have no choice but to show an average of the model outputs.

Also since the center is the llc we saw earlier which was rotating around with another vort has consolidated and nothing to do with the energy from the east pac invest the models have initialized correctly.

[KWT]

Even HMON now shows a hurricane, down to 970mbs at landfall. The NHC may have to bolder with their intensity forecast during the next discussion.

[Kingarabian]

Euro went 0-100 real quick...

[GCANE]

GFS, run-to-run:
Every run is another notch higher in intensity in the GOM.

[TheStormExpert]

It looks like the GFS maybe right again with it’s shear forecast allowing future Michael to RI up till landfall. If that’s the case this would be worse than Opal (1995) as that was on a weakening trend at landfall.

[JtSmarts]

The Euro paints a nasty picture for the eastern SC, 70-80 mph gusts!

[TheStormExpert]

http://i63.tinypic.com/281qy43.png

The Euro paints a nasty picture for the eastern SC, 70-80 mph gusts!

At first I thought you were posting something from Florence.

[robbielyn]

GFS 06z looks slightly west of 0z 957mb upon landfall Panama City

[BobHarlem]

After seeing the Euro and the 6Z GFS this is going to catch a lot of people off guard.

[robbielyn]

After seeing the Euro and the 6Z GFS this is going to catch a lot of people off guard.

yes because it's a quickly developing system preps should be starting now for the northern to he gulf coast. Wednesday or Thursday not far off. What I like about this system is it doesn't seem too complicated of a setup. we basically have model consistency of where it's basically aiming to go on several runs. Pensacola to Apalachicola seems to be the consensus so they especially need to be making preps. although the rest of us either side of the cone need to keep watching vigilantly. With Florence, models had it going all over the place from the delmarva to Jacksonville. these models have been more tightly clustered.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS 06z looks slightly west of 0z 957mb upon landfall Panama City

06z GFS landfall is right over Destin.

[KWT]

HWRF now going into the 930s with 115kt winds just before landfall, crazy run. Even the more conservative HMON is now going to 970mbs.

[NDG]

Closer look at the latest GFS and Euro runs, the Euro shows wind gusts near 150 mph at landfall. GFS now shows landfall near Destin with its strongest run so far of TD 14.
BTW, the Euro has landfall near Mexico Beach, 10-15 miles SE of Panama City Beach.
Link to the images because this site is still slow this morning.
https://i.imgur.com/9jPRWeX.png
https://i.imgur.com/TYdUYET.png
https://i.imgur.com/LkzIzag.png

[NDG]

The latest 06z HWRF now shows TD 14 becoming a Cat 4 hurricane giving some credibility to the Euro & GFS of it at least becoming a Cat 2/3 hurricane.

[robbielyn]

The latest 06z HWRF now shows TD 14 becoming a Cat 4 hurricane giving some credibility to the Euro & GFS of it at least becoming a Cat 2/3 hurricane.

That's crazy but the waters are still very warm and with s by ear lessening somewhat.... I'm glad I live on the peninsula. I just hope it doesn't go further east like the big bend. but I don't think it will.

[ronjon]

00z UKMET hanging tough with a Cross City Florida landfall at 962 mb. Has support from German ICON. Models seem to be shifting toward the NE with time. Even the European now brings a hurricane through Tallahassee. I'm starting to get very concerned about storm surge along the Florida west coast given there may be a major hurricane now heading toward or close to the big bend region.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/florida/sea-level-pressure/20181010-1800z.html
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/sea-level-pressure/20181011-1200z.html

[caneman]

00z UKMET hanging tough with a Cross City Florida landfall at 962 mb. Has support from German ICON. Models seem to be shifting toward the NE with time. Even the European now brings a hurricane through Tallahassee. I'm starting to get very concerned about storm surge along the Florida west coast given there may be a major hurricane now heading toward or close to the big bend region.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/florida/sea-level-pressure/20181010-1800z.html

I'm with you. keeping a close eye as well. A 50 to 100 mile shift east will make all the difference in the world for the West coast

[bella_may]

Too early to pin point a track right now. A lot will depend on where the CoC forms, the speed and how fast the “cold front” comes in

[NDG]

Weird that the 12z tropical models have not come out yet, except for the SHIPS model which already came out.