ATL: MICHAEL - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#141 Postby N2FSU » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:36 am

Stormcenter wrote:Canadian model SE La. landfall

Slight east shift
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#142 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:53 am

Latest Fv3-GFS looks to be around the Pensacola area as well. Ugh
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#143 Postby MacTavish » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:57 am

GFS and FV3 have amazing agreement
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#144 Postby gulf701 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:59 am

The 0600Z and 1200Z runs as displayed on tropicalatlantic.com sure has the FL Panhandle and Big Bend in the crosshairs. Will be interesting to see how things develop over the next few days. Hi, pinheadlarry, glad to know there is another from Gulf County.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#145 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:06 pm

Do not disregard the GFS and HWRF shear forecast..

that narrow trough that starts the north turn and keeps the shear is very weak and a large TS with expansive convection can easily cause that feature to fill and disappear much more rapidly than ships is showing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#146 Postby PSUHiker31 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:23 pm

Shift west in most models since 00Z except the UKMET which barely shifts west and now deepens it to 948 mb before landfall. UKMET consistency on location and strength is a bit alarming.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#147 Postby robbielyn » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:37 pm

The spaghetti plots for 91L show the majority of models including the tcvn apalachicola or slight east or slight west of there. a couple at pensacola a couple at LA.
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#148 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:46 pm

Intensity forecast now indicating a possible Cat 2 hurricane with 94kts.
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#149 Postby rockyman » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:48 pm

12z Euro is running:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=108
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#150 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:49 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Intensity forecast now indicating a possible Cat 2 hurricane with 94kts.
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79

939mb pressure associated with 94kt winds at landfall!? Am I reading that correctly? :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#151 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:54 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Intensity forecast now indicating a possible Cat 2 hurricane with 94kts.
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79

939mb pressure associated with 94kt winds at landfall!? Am I reading that correctly? :eek:


Not landfall, still over the gulf heading for the Big Bend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#152 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:55 pm

HWRF at 945mb, with a landfall around Laguna Beach
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#153 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:56 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Intensity forecast now indicating a possible Cat 2 hurricane with 94kts.
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79

939mb pressure associated with 94kt winds at landfall!? Am I reading that correctly? :eek:


Not landfall, still over the gulf heading for the Big Bend.

Still that’s not pressure equivalent to a Cat.2 hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#154 Postby WAcyclone » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:12 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Intensity forecast now indicating a possible Cat 2 hurricane with 94kts.
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79

939mb pressure associated with 94kt winds at landfall!? Am I reading that correctly? :eek:


Something is seriously wrong with the pressure-wind relationship in this UKMET text output. As far as I know, there has never been an Atlantic Cat. 2 hurricane with a pressure below 940 mb on record.

Edit: Also note that these could be 10-minute sustained values which would equate to 108 kt. Still, the PW-relationship seems way off to me.
Last edited by WAcyclone on Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:15 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#155 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:13 pm

Could be a glitch, it looks like an outlier compared to other plots.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#156 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:15 pm

12z UKMET

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#157 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:18 pm

12z ECM thru 96hrs generally same as 00z, maybe a hair further East.....looks like once again western Fl Panhandle.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#158 Postby otowntiger » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:22 pm

Looks like Euro is heading for Ala/ FL border and is definitely not buying the upswing in intensity by other models. Holding st 995mb’s just south of the northern gulf coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#159 Postby Frank P » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:24 pm

otowntiger wrote:Looks like Euro is going to shift west some and is definitely not buying the upswing in intensity by other models. Holding st 995mb’s just south of the northern gulf coast.

from what I can tell it was a slight shift east from last nights run.. MHO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#160 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:25 pm

Euro is slower
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