ATL: MICHAEL - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1062
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#141 Postby N2FSU » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:36 am

Stormcenter wrote:Canadian model SE La. landfall

Slight east shift
0 likes   
Top
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#142 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:53 am

Latest Fv3-GFS looks to be around the Pensacola area as well. Ugh
1 likes   
Top
MacTavish

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#143 Postby MacTavish » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:57 am

GFS and FV3 have amazing agreement
0 likes   
Top
gulf701
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Age: 75
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:43 pm
Location: Wewahitchka, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#144 Postby gulf701 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 11:59 am

The 0600Z and 1200Z runs as displayed on tropicalatlantic.com sure has the FL Panhandle and Big Bend in the crosshairs. Will be interesting to see how things develop over the next few days. Hi, pinheadlarry, glad to know there is another from Gulf County.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#145 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:06 pm

Do not disregard the GFS and HWRF shear forecast..

that narrow trough that starts the north turn and keeps the shear is very weak and a large TS with expansive convection can easily cause that feature to fill and disappear much more rapidly than ships is showing.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
PSUHiker31
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:36 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#146 Postby PSUHiker31 » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:23 pm

Shift west in most models since 00Z except the UKMET which barely shifts west and now deepens it to 948 mb before landfall. UKMET consistency on location and strength is a bit alarming.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1298
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#147 Postby robbielyn » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:37 pm

The spaghetti plots for 91L show the majority of models including the tcvn apalachicola or slight east or slight west of there. a couple at pensacola a couple at LA.
0 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D
Top
User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3383
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:
Contact tropicwatch

ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#148 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:46 pm

Intensity forecast now indicating a possible Cat 2 hurricane with 94kts.
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#149 Postby rockyman » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:48 pm

12z Euro is running:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=108
0 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#150 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:49 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Intensity forecast now indicating a possible Cat 2 hurricane with 94kts.
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79

939mb pressure associated with 94kt winds at landfall!? Am I reading that correctly? :eek:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3383
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:
Contact tropicwatch

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#151 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:54 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Intensity forecast now indicating a possible Cat 2 hurricane with 94kts.
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79

939mb pressure associated with 94kt winds at landfall!? Am I reading that correctly? :eek:


Not landfall, still over the gulf heading for the Big Bend.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Top
User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1406
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#152 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:55 pm

HWRF at 945mb, with a landfall around Laguna Beach
0 likes   
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#153 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 06, 2018 12:56 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Intensity forecast now indicating a possible Cat 2 hurricane with 94kts.
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79

939mb pressure associated with 94kt winds at landfall!? Am I reading that correctly? :eek:


Not landfall, still over the gulf heading for the Big Bend.

Still that’s not pressure equivalent to a Cat.2 hurricane.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
WAcyclone
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 352
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2017 1:56 pm
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#154 Postby WAcyclone » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:12 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:Intensity forecast now indicating a possible Cat 2 hurricane with 94kts.
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912018

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 0 17.2N 86.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 07.10.2018 12 17.4N 85.9W 1005 30
1200UTC 07.10.2018 24 19.0N 86.4W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.10.2018 36 20.0N 85.5W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2018 48 20.8N 85.8W 995 43
0000UTC 09.10.2018 60 22.0N 85.5W 982 60
1200UTC 09.10.2018 72 23.7N 85.7W 976 61
0000UTC 10.10.2018 84 25.4N 86.0W 973 60
1200UTC 10.10.2018 96 27.4N 85.9W 961 69
0000UTC 11.10.2018 108 29.5N 84.8W 939 94
1200UTC 11.10.2018 120 31.5N 82.5W 965 51
0000UTC 12.10.2018 132 33.5N 79.0W 967 61
1200UTC 12.10.2018 144 35.3N 74.3W 951 79

939mb pressure associated with 94kt winds at landfall!? Am I reading that correctly? :eek:


Something is seriously wrong with the pressure-wind relationship in this UKMET text output. As far as I know, there has never been an Atlantic Cat. 2 hurricane with a pressure below 940 mb on record.

Edit: Also note that these could be 10-minute sustained values which would equate to 108 kt. Still, the PW-relationship seems way off to me.
Last edited by WAcyclone on Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:15 pm, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#155 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:13 pm

Could be a glitch, it looks like an outlier compared to other plots.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#156 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:15 pm

12z UKMET

Image
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#157 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:18 pm

12z ECM thru 96hrs generally same as 00z, maybe a hair further East.....looks like once again western Fl Panhandle.
0 likes   
Top
otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1921
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#158 Postby otowntiger » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:22 pm

Looks like Euro is heading for Ala/ FL border and is definitely not buying the upswing in intensity by other models. Holding st 995mb’s just south of the northern gulf coast.
0 likes   
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2776
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#159 Postby Frank P » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:24 pm

otowntiger wrote:Looks like Euro is going to shift west some and is definitely not buying the upswing in intensity by other models. Holding st 995mb’s just south of the northern gulf coast.

from what I can tell it was a slight shift east from last nights run.. MHO
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#160 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 06, 2018 1:25 pm

Euro is slower
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest