IF A CV STORM MAKES LANDFALL ANYWHERE........

[dixiebreeze]

this time of year on US shores or even the Caribbean, I believe that is somewhat historic. Does anyone know how often that happens, for a CV system to reach 'cane status as it traverses the Atlantic in mid-October?

[wxman57]

The last discussion by the NHC gives you the answer:

"IT IS OF INTEREST
TO NOTE THAT...<b>SINCE 1900...THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY 7 HURRICANES TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...I.E. IN THE DEEP TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.</b> "

[LarryWx]

From 1851-2002, records show there were 36 T.S.+'s that were first declared a T.D.+ east of 55W and south of 20N ON OR AFTER 9/26. NONE of these later hit the U.S. So, the odds are overwhelmingly low for Nicholas to ever make it to the U.S. since it would be the first U.S. hit in this category in at least 153 years.

[AussieMark]

Hurricane Jose in 1999 was the last storm to gain Hurricane status east of the Lesser Antilles.

[BEER980]

LarryWx

NONE of these later hit the U.S. So, the odds are overwhelmingly low for Nicholas to ever make it to the U.S. since it would be the first U.S. hit in this category in at least 153 years.

I am going to go out on a limb here and say it just might hit land. The odds are very low but it could happen. Look at the season we have had. Too many weird things going on with the storms. Sounds like we may be over due.

[cycloneye]

Agree Beer anything can happen with the track of Nicholas that will not surprise anyone with the kind of season 2003 has been from Ana in april to a TD in june in the east atlantic to now Nicholas in mid october in the central atlantic..

[stormchazer]

I'd guess the odds of it hitting land is 1000 to 1. Frankly, I'll take the '1' the way this season has been.

[WoodstockWX]

here: