Ntxw wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:Posted in the ENSO thread but here it is. Folks this is your El Nino 2018-2019, in particular winter. Bring out those El Nino analogs, especially the weak-moderate El Ninos. We have had 5 since 2000. 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2006-2007, 2009-2010, 2014-2015. Of those, one was during a solar minima - 2009-2010.
For the Golden ticket you want this to just touch moderate range. Somewhere within 1C to 1.5C
https://images2.imgbox.com/4a/43/kH9Ejk29_o.gif
Generally speaking a wetter than normal Fall and wetter than normal Winter is a good bet. We'll have to watch the state of the AO and EPO to see what kind of air we are working with.
I've been high on on the more recent analogs but am worried that the base state is still too warm as we try to come down from the heat spike associated with the last Super Nino.
Oh I am well aware! We are no doubt in a much warmer background state. I do think we will at least be promised a good subtropical jet and deeper systems kicking out. We can still get cold enough for snow yet. But I'm not holding my breath yet for cold outbreaks. Those actually might be fewer this winter compared to the last 2.
Ntxw, if you had to pick, which analog would you go with, if nothing changes between now and beginning of December? Especially if we get a central or even a west niño
That would be an insane snowstorm for that part of the country at that time of the year if that were to happen. Most places that far south in Minnesota are usually only beginning to see their first flakes. Would be hilarious(and I'd be a bit jealous) if they got 24 inches of snow this early. 
