Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Aric Dunn]

zero development from ICON now as well... though for a completely different reason lol.

[Hurricaneman]

Wouldn’t it be funny if nothing came of this disturbance

[Hurricaneman]

On the 0zGFS it finally popped a low in the BOC and looks like something else North of Cuba. Could be the GFS is on something and is trying to split the difference with the eastern vorticity and the western vorticity which sounds wrong, it’s either going to be the area near Cuba or the BOC area that develops at 180hrs

[blp]

It's developing in the Fla Straights. Looks like the east vort wins out this time. I think GFS has shifted.

[Hurricaneman]

It's developing in the Fla Straights. Looks like the east vort wins out this time. I think GFS has shifted.

Yep but one has to wonder why it’s still trying to pop something in the BOC too

[Hurricaneman]

On the GFS I can’t figure out why this is not strengthening at 222 with a good environment for strengthening, maybe the GFS is playing catch-up

[Aric Dunn]

It's developing in the Fla Straights. Looks like the east vort wins out this time. I think GFS has shifted.

Yep but one has to wonder why it’s still trying to pop something in the BOC too

because the convective feedback issues still have not been resolved

[Hurricaneman]

It's developing in the Fla Straights. Looks like the east vort wins out this time. I think GFS has shifted.

Yep but one has to wonder why it’s still trying to pop something in the BOC too

because the convective feedback issues still have not been resolved

Until we get a run without convective feedback the GFS will have to be tossed

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS FV3 is showing development from the eastern vorticity with some convective feedback but not as atrociously as the Operational

[Aric Dunn]

Since the convection is minimal the recent ASCAT pass is showing little to nothing under that weakening MLC just a very slight kink in the overall flow. the main area will be near San Andres Island still.

[Hurricaneman]

Since the convection is minimal the recent ASCAT pass is showing little to nothing under that weakening MLC just a very slight kink in the overall flow. the main area will be near San Andres Island still.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmosphere/ascat/MetopB/WINDS/cur_25km/zooms/WMBas76.png

I’ve been trying to find out which island is San Andres, the one at 79w or the one at 80w in that picture so I know where to look

[Aric Dunn]

Since the convection is minimal the recent ASCAT pass is showing little to nothing under that weakening MLC just a very slight kink in the overall flow. the main area will be near San Andres Island still.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmosphere/ascat/MetopB/WINDS/cur_25km/zooms/WMBas76.png

I’ve been trying to find out which island is San Andres, the one at 79w or the one at 80w in that picture so I know where to look

the southern one. google it.....

[Aric Dunn]

and luckily we have radar there when things get going..

http://meteorologia.aerocivil.gov.co/ra ... ist%5B%5D=

[LarryWx]

The UKMET has no TC genesis once again. Of course, this only goes out 6 days. It continues to have an EPAC genesis.

[LarryWx]

Wouldn’t it be funny if nothing came of this disturbance

Though I'm not predicting nothing, that wouldn't at all be surprising considering El Nino. I give that maybe a 1 in 4 chance...so not tiny.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro hour 84 indicates there likely won't be a well developed TC east of FL like the last run. Much less (actually almost nothing in the eastern position) vs what 12Z 96 hour showed.

[Aric Dunn]

0Z Euro hour 84 indicates there likely won't be a well developed TC east of FL like the last run. Much less (actually nothing int he eastern position) vs what 12Z 96 hour showed.

well those solutions should have been dismissed in the first place.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro hour 84 indicates there likely won't be a well developed TC east of FL like the last run. Much less (actually nothing int he eastern position) vs what 12Z 96 hour showed.

well those solutions should have been dismissed in the first place.

But the new FV3 has that.

[Aric Dunn]

0Z Euro hour 84 indicates there likely won't be a well developed TC east of FL like the last run. Much less (actually nothing int he eastern position) vs what 12Z 96 hour showed.

well those solutions should have been dismissed in the first place.

But the new FV3 has that.

solutions from all the models that were showing that

[LarryWx]

All the 0Z Euro 108 hour map has is a very weak highly sheared low just NE of Yucatan tip moving W. Likely won't amount to much but let's see.


******Edit: confirmed. So, as of hour 132, there's still only a very weak low in Bay of Camp and nothing else threatening to form anywhere. Odds pretty high of no TC genesis entire 10 days of this run but still 4 more days.