Texas Fall 2018

[bubba hotep]

**Breaking New*** Euro Weeklies Control Run Gets Snow into SW and Central Texas! Let's Get Ready to Rumble Winter '18/19

[Haris]

**Breaking New*** Euro Weeklies Control Run Gets Snow into SW and Central Texas! Let's Get Ready to Rumble Winter '18/19

WHOA!!!!!

[Ntxw]

Hey hey, we don't use the S-word around here this early. Them fightin words unless you deliver!

Portastorm is not good and ready for hopes and dreams to be crushed prematurely.

[Brent]

**Breaking New*** Euro Weeklies Control Run Gets Snow into SW and Central Texas! Let's Get Ready to Rumble Winter '18/19

When

[fendie]

**Breaking New*** Euro Weeklies Control Run Gets Snow into SW and Central Texas! Let's Get Ready to Rumble Winter '18/19

When

Between 1080 and 1104 hours. Day 40-46. Nov 10-16.

[Cpv17]

**Breaking New*** Euro Weeklies Control Run Gets Snow into SW and Central Texas! Let's Get Ready to Rumble Winter '18/19

How are they looking for rain?

[Brent]

the Euro still has a lot of rain for Dallas early/mid next week, another multi day flooding setup for sure looks possible

[Lagreeneyes03]

This week Oct 1st-6th will run warmer than average, but things are looking better for a much cooler and wetter patteren by late this weekend, early next week. I am looking forward to the last week of October and into early November as I think we are looking at a very nice Winter 2018/19 for those of us who enjoy winter wx.

Meh...either "Cold Rain" or "Too cold and dry to snow"....

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS is interesting regarding the tropics.

[Haris]

New euro is very nice.

[TheProfessor]

Whew it is humid here. 78 degrees with a 70 dewpoint. Feels more like a Texas April then an Ohio October lol. Would be interesting to see what happens with a tropical system if one developed under the ridge in the gulf.

[Cpv17]

I’m not sure, but it looks to me that the wave that’s over the W Caribbean looks like it’s headed towards Texas on the latest Euro.

[Brent]

Maybe some severe weather next week to go with the flooding threat Sunday and especially Monday it appears

Then it looks like towards the end of next week maybe some real fall air, both the EPS and GEFS have highs in the 60s in Dallas for multiple days towards next weekend

[starsfan65]

Maybe some severe weather next week to go with the flooding threat Sunday and especially Monday it appears

Then it looks like towards the end of next week maybe some real fall air, both the EPS and GEFS have highs in the 60s in Dallas for multiple days towards next weekend

looks that way!!

[bubba hotep]

Maybe some severe weather next week to go with the flooding threat Sunday and especially Monday it appears

Then it looks like towards the end of next week maybe some real fall air, both the EPS and GEFS have highs in the 60s in Dallas for multiple days towards next weekend

It seems like those cold fronts keep getting pushed off to the next week but we wouldn't want Torchtober any other way

[Ntxw]

Posted in the ENSO thread but here it is. Folks this is your El Nino 2018-2019, in particular winter. Bring out those El Nino analogs, especially the weak-moderate El Ninos. We have had 5 since 2000. 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2006-2007, 2009-2010, 2014-2015. Of those, one was during a solar minima - 2009-2010.

For the Golden ticket you want this to just touch moderate range. Somewhere within 1C to 1.5C



Generally speaking a wetter than normal Fall and wetter than normal Winter is a good bet. We'll have to watch the state of the AO and EPO to see what kind of air we are working with.

[South Texas Storms]

Happy El Nino is coming on strong now! Now let's hope it produces a chilly and wet winter

[bubba hotep]

Posted in the ENSO thread but here it is. Folks this is your El Nino 2018-2019, in particular winter. Bring out those El Nino analogs, especially the weak-moderate El Ninos. We have had 5 since 2000. 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2006-2007, 2009-2010, 2014-2015. Of those, one was during a solar minima - 2009-2010.

For the Golden ticket you want this to just touch moderate range. Somewhere within 1C to 1.5C

https://images2.imgbox.com/4a/43/kH9Ejk29_o.gif

Generally speaking a wetter than normal Fall and wetter than normal Winter is a good bet. We'll have to watch the state of the AO and EPO to see what kind of air we are working with.

I've been high on on the more recent analogs but am worried that the base state is still too warm as we try to come down from the heat spike associated with the last Super Nino.

[Ntxw]

Posted in the ENSO thread but here it is. Folks this is your El Nino 2018-2019, in particular winter. Bring out those El Nino analogs, especially the weak-moderate El Ninos. We have had 5 since 2000. 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2006-2007, 2009-2010, 2014-2015. Of those, one was during a solar minima - 2009-2010.

For the Golden ticket you want this to just touch moderate range. Somewhere within 1C to 1.5C

https://images2.imgbox.com/4a/43/kH9Ejk29_o.gif

Generally speaking a wetter than normal Fall and wetter than normal Winter is a good bet. We'll have to watch the state of the AO and EPO to see what kind of air we are working with.

I've been high on on the more recent analogs but am worried that the base state is still too warm as we try to come down from the heat spike associated with the last Super Nino.

Oh I am well aware! We are no doubt in a much warmer background state. I do think we will at least be promised a good subtropical jet and deeper systems kicking out. We can still get cold enough for snow yet. But I'm not holding my breath yet for cold outbreaks. Those actually might be fewer this winter compared to the last 2.

[Brent]

Maybe some severe weather next week to go with the flooding threat Sunday and especially Monday it appears

Then it looks like towards the end of next week maybe some real fall air, both the EPS and GEFS have highs in the 60s in Dallas for multiple days towards next weekend

It seems like those cold fronts keep getting pushed off to the next week but we wouldn't want Torchtober any other way

https://image.ibb.co/cpsxie/Torchtober.png

Every October since I've been here...