CPAC: WALAKA - Post-Tropical
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
18Z BT same as latest from CPHC
01C WALAKA 181001 1800 12.6N 168.9W CPAC 125 935
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
Other than wind lag factors, this is a Cat.5. Lane had almost the same look at its peak.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
TXPN21 KNES 011756
TCSCNP
A. 01C (WALAKA)
B. 01/1730Z
C. 12.5N
D. 168.8W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED WITHIN W RESULTS IN
AN ENO OF 6.0 AND AN EADJ OF +1.0, GIVING A CF OF 7.0. NO BF IS ADDED,
SO THE DT IS 7.0. THE MET IS 5.5 AND THE PT IS 6.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER 6, 12, 18, AND 24
HOURS AND THAT THE FT MUST BE WITHIN 1.0 T# OF THE MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...HOSLEY
TCSCNP
A. 01C (WALAKA)
B. 01/1730Z
C. 12.5N
D. 168.8W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED WITHIN W RESULTS IN
AN ENO OF 6.0 AND AN EADJ OF +1.0, GIVING A CF OF 7.0. NO BF IS ADDED,
SO THE DT IS 7.0. THE MET IS 5.5 AND THE PT IS 6.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER 6, 12, 18, AND 24
HOURS AND THAT THE FT MUST BE WITHIN 1.0 T# OF THE MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...HOSLEY
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
Kingarabian wrote:Other than wind lag factors, this is a Cat.5. Lane had almost the same look at its peak.
I'd ignore the constraints here, since this has been bombing out faster than they allow. I'd go with 145 kt right now, giving some weight to the Raw-T of 7.4 (which would support 150-155 kt).
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
Little doubt in my mind this is already 140-145 knots. This looks better than some category 5's I've seen. This may have been one of the fastest-intensifying storms ever.
If only it were logistically possible to fly recon into every storm.
If only it were logistically possible to fly recon into every storm.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
CrazyC83 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Other than wind lag factors, this is a Cat.5. Lane had almost the same look at its peak.
I'd ignore the constraints here, since this has been bombing out faster than they allow. I'd go with 145 kt right now, giving some weight to the Raw-T of 7.4 (which would support 150-155 kt).
Yeah definitely they must be broken. This is not a gradual increase in organization as we saw with Hector and Lane. This bombed out, so I'm betting those constraints are overdoing it.
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1046807995546505217
The CPHC showed that it confers with the NHC in regards to systems in the CPAC. So hopefully they'll take their advice and bump it to Cat.5 soon.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
Kingarabian wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Other than wind lag factors, this is a Cat.5. Lane had almost the same look at its peak.
I'd ignore the constraints here, since this has been bombing out faster than they allow. I'd go with 145 kt right now, giving some weight to the Raw-T of 7.4 (which would support 150-155 kt).
Yeah definitely they must be broken. This is not a gradual increase in organization as we saw with Hector and Lane. This bombed out, so I'm betting those constraints are overdoing it.
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1046807995546505217
The CPHC showed that it confers with the NHC in regards to systems in the CPAC. So hopefully they'll take their advice and bump it to Cat.5 soon.
This is not far off the rates we saw in Patricia and Wilma.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
2 hour old pass and not the best resolution. Deadly system.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2018 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 12:43:12 N Lon : 169:06:36 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 924.8mb/140.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.1 7.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km
Center Temp : +15.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.1C
Scene Type : EYE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2018 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 12:43:12 N Lon : 169:06:36 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 924.8mb/140.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.1 7.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km
Center Temp : +15.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.1C
Scene Type : EYE
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
Now forecasting 145 knots
...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WALAKA STILL INTENSIFYING FAR SOUTHWEST OF
HAWAII...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 169.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES
HAWAII...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 169.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
Too bad you need a permit to get to Johnston Atoll. Would make for a good chase for extreme weather chasers.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
supercane4867 wrote:130kt is absurd
[url]https://i.imgur.com/lQNDnOu.gif[url]
Yeah it is... Offseason re-analysis should bump this to Cat.5 around 1500Z.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
Kingarabian wrote:Too bad you need a permit to get to Johnston Atoll. Would make for a good chase for extreme weather chasers.
Impossible to get there unless you rent a private jet.
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Re: CPAC: WALAKA - Hurricane
supercane4867 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Too bad you need a permit to get to Johnston Atoll. Would make for a good chase for extreme weather chasers.
Impossible to get there unless you rent a private jet.
Through a permit from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service it's possible by boat I believe.
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