6z model suite for Nicholas=BAMM AND BAMD more west

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cycloneye
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6z model suite for Nicholas=BAMM AND BAMD more west

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 15, 2003 5:59 am

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03101507

BAMM and BAMD tilting more west at this run after 96 hours.
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#2 Postby Steve H. » Wed Oct 15, 2003 7:10 am

This one hurts my head and we'll have to wait a few more hours to get the location of the center. It APPEARS that the center is a bit further south than the fix from the earlier advisory, BUT the vort could have broke naway from the overall center and is tearing off to the NNW. Very hard to tell with limited vis pix and shortwave IR/DVORAK. Is he making a dash north and avoiding getting under the influence (DUI) of the ridge?? Not sure. If he's further south he could be a problem down the road. But the tight little vort that appears to be breaking away from the whole cloud mass has me confused. If that vort takes over the NOGAPS may have it right??? We should know today sometime. Watch also the convection that came off Columbia this morning. Cheers!! :wink:
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#3 Postby JCT777 » Wed Oct 15, 2003 8:51 am

Thanks for the info, Luis. The threat to the islands seems to be increasing with each advisory.
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#4 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Oct 15, 2003 9:02 am

The question is once its pass the islands, who is the next target?
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#5 Postby GulfBreezer » Wed Oct 15, 2003 9:38 am

Our local met said this morning that a more W path is expected. He also said that this is changing from yesterday when a more NW path was in the cards.
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#6 Postby opera ghost » Wed Oct 15, 2003 9:58 am

DUI... every time I read this post I think: Where on earth did that tropical storm managed to get ahold of enough pot to influence it's direction???? *grins*

This system has strange written all over it. That doesn't mean it's not going to behave in a noraml fashion- just that it seems to be a very odd system.
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