Texas Fall 2018

[ronyan]

We received an inch here so far since midnight, just passed 20 inches for the month. We've had about the same this month as we did for August 2017 (Harvey).

[weatherdude1108]

Hit a few heavy downpours late this morning driving with my 6-year old daughter from north Austin to my niece's birthday party in south Austin.

Would be pouring and not being able to see, to dry streets and sun for a bit, back to pouring and dark, etc.

My daughter would cover her ears saying "too loud" when it was pouring on the car. I told her "at least it's not hailing, then it would be really loud."lol

Kind of an adventure.

[Haris]

Austin got 1.35”

[weatherdude1108]

1.75 inches at my house, today!

[Ntxw]

Latest drought map. Things have improved across the state.

[Cpv17]

How’s the Euro looking for rain? GFS isn’t showing that much.

[Haris]

How’s the Euro looking for rain? GFS isn’t showing that much.

European shows 1-5" across most of Texas.

Also, note the 18z GFS ensembles 100% disagree with the op. gfs.

Don't worry

[cheezyWXguy]

FW AFD:

By next weekend, the upper trough will begin affecting our weather more noticeably, with potentially a bout of early fall thunderstorm activity. Numerous shortwaves swinging through the parent trough to our west will deliver multiple opportunities for storms to a large portion of the central and Southern Plains from Saturday into early next week. One of these disturbances will pull a surface cold front into Oklahoma and northwestern Texas on Saturday, although this front is likely to remain stalled north of the forecast area. This boundary and the accompanying upper forcing will result in widespread convection to our north and west, some of which may organize and move towards North Texas late Saturday. In addition, scattered warm sector convection may occur elsewhere across the forecast area from Saturday into Sunday, fueled by warm advection. As additional disturbances dig through the upper trough, most ensemble members suggest this will cause a slow eastward progression of the primary trough axis, possibly transitioning it to a neutral or even negative tilt orientation by early next week. This would increase thunderstorm chances farther east across our forecast area, while also increasing the potential for stronger storms due to the presence of steeper lapse rates and much stronger shear. By Monday or Tuesday, the aforementioned cold front may be driven into the area, further increasing the potential for thunderstorms and widespread rainfall. This system will be slow to arrive and slow to leave, so numerous rounds of rain/storms could also mean a potential for some flooding should this setup materialize. While this pattern transition is still several days away, it bears watching over the coming days as the upper-level energy begins being sampled by the upper air network, hopefully increasing consistency among guidance.

[wxman57]

I will continue to hold fall hostage for at least another 2 weeks. Enjoy the heat!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I will continue to hold fall hostage for at least another 2 weeks. Enjoy the heat!

I see changes coming mid October. Ready for you to enjoy another cold Winter!

[gpsnowman]

I will continue to hold fall hostage for at least another 2 weeks. Enjoy the heat!

I see changes coming mid October. Ready for you to enjoy another cold Winter!

In DFW we pretty much went from winter to summer in April/May. Maybe we go from summer to winter later this month? I really do miss fall weather though. The extended humidity/heat stretch sucks.

[CaptinCrunch]

This week Oct 1st-6th will run warmer than average, but things are looking better for a much cooler and wetter patteren by late this weekend, early next week. I am looking forward to the last week of October and into early November as I think we are looking at a very nice Winter 2018/19 for those of us who enjoy winter wx.

[Haris]

In other news as weather currently is boring here , Niño 3.4 and other areas warmed to 0.6° C if you missed it!

[weatherdude1108]

I was just out walking after lunch at work (north Austin). Sun was shining, humid as all get out. Suddenly rain drops started falling as the sun was shining. I opened up my umbrella I was carrying, while wearing my sunglasses.

Next thing I know, I'm walking in a light shower, with the sun shining. I looked up and could see the rain drops reflecting off the sun high up in the sky. Coolest thing!

I noticed the dark clouds with the sun, and steam coming up from the asphalt, pavement, and cars around me while raining.

I haven't been to a rainforest, but they way it looked with everything steaming and how it felt, it sure did feel like I could be in a rainforest!!

[Cpv17]

There’s no significant cool down on the 12z Euro through 10 days. It shows above average temps for basically the whole run.

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, I could get used to this.

[Cpv17]

Meanwhile, I could get used to this.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

I’d like to see those darker greens more south, but I guess I can’t be too greedy lol honestly these above average rainfall maps from the CPC lately haven’t really verified for me. We’ve just been getting average rainfall here lately. We’ve gotten maybe 1.50” in the last two weeks.

[Brent]

I will continue to hold fall hostage for at least another 2 weeks. Enjoy the heat!

I see changes coming mid October. Ready for you to enjoy another cold Winter!

In DFW we pretty much went from winter to summer in April/May. Maybe we go from summer to winter later this month? I really do miss fall weather though. The extended humidity/heat stretch sucks.

I sure hope so this humidity can die

[Cpv17]

I sure hope the GFS ensembles are more wet than the op cuz man that doesn’t look all that good.

[Cpv17]

I see changes coming mid October. Ready for you to enjoy another cold Winter!

In DFW we pretty much went from winter to summer in April/May. Maybe we go from summer to winter later this month? I really do miss fall weather though. The extended humidity/heat stretch sucks.

I sure hope so this humidity can die

I think you’ll have to wait a couple more weeks. You can do it! Lol