ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[chaser1]

Noting present motion, i'd guess a northward adjustment. 24 hr. official forecast for 12Z tomm. a.m. is 13.7 N 58.7 W. Looks to me like it'll track north of that point

[brohavwx]

If not for the anticipated trajectory and distance from Barbados, I'd think that any data from recon suggesting continued pressure drop and an increase in top end gusts might have spured the government of Barbados to even consider posting a Hurricane watch. Luckily, Kirks' tight core seems to be gaining a bit of latitude. The timing of expected shear seems so fluid right now. Depending on timing I think it's reasonable to assume the possibility of hurricane force gusts for Martinique and points north given the present organizational trend but on the other-hand, these small core systems are fragile and once beginning to feel the effects of strong upper level shear can very quickly unravel it's small tight wind field.

If our Govt (Barbados) does decide to go to Hurricane Watch it will likely not be before 5 PM and by then it may be too late. Doesn't look like there will be another Recon plane in there until tomorrow night, if I'm reading the 'Plan of the Day' correctly, when its already passed us. Looks like we're on our own now, we'll send our data on as it passes by, as usual.

[GCANE]

Big jump in core temp in the last pass.

[blp]

from an hour and half ago..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc18/ATL/12L.KIRK/amsr2/89rgb/20180926.1640.gw1.89pct89h89v.12L.KIRK.40kts.1004mb.12N.53.4W.76pc.jpg

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc18/ATL/12L.KIRK/amsr2/89h/20180926.1640.gw1.89hbt.12L.KIRK.40kts.1004mb.12N.53.4W.76pc.jpg

??

Protoeye. Wow.

[LarryWx]

http://i67.tinypic.com/10elws2.png

So, this recon based location had him at 12.5N, 54.8W but NHC had him at 12.5N, 55.0W at 2 PM. Only a subtle difference but still a difference. Anyone know why?

[chaser1]

We interrupt this Kirk intensification process for the following satire:

Conspiracy theory confirmed - 2018 Atlantic Season to be FAR busier then expected!
Theorists discovery that within the 2018 Atlantic Name list, "Kirk" (Captain Kirk) and "William" (Shatner), are one in the same. Speculations are swirling counter-clockwise that shortly after a late November NHC designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone the upgrade to "William" will then occur. Following that event will be the anticipated turkey of a (Thanksgiving) day announcement by Paramount Pictures of the newest Star Trek movie set for release in 2019.... "The Remnants of Kirk"

(we now return to our regularly scheduled Kirk intensification broadcast)

[Gustywind]

TT Kirk. Looks like Kirk is on a more wnw direction given my untrained eyes?
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/1745 UTC 12.6N 54.7W T3.0/3.0 KIRK
26/1145 UTC 12.0N 53.3W T3.0/3.0 KIRK

[Aric Dunn]

TT Kirk. Looks like Kirk is on a more wnw direction given my untrained eyes?
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/1745 UTC 12.6N 54.7W T3.0/3.0 KIRK
26/1145 UTC 12.0N 53.3W T3.0/3.0 KIRK

yeah after the center got pulled deeper into the convection the normal west to wnw motion has resumed.

[Gustywind]

TT Kirk. Looks like Kirk is on a more wnw direction given my untrained eyes?
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/1745 UTC 12.6N 54.7W T3.0/3.0 KIRK
26/1145 UTC 12.0N 53.3W T3.0/3.0 KIRK

yeah after the center got pulled deeper into the convection the normal west to wnw motion has resumed.

Ok i Wonder! Thanks Aric. We should continue to monitor it...

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1045020699448958977

[meriland29]

Kirk be rolling in the Atlantic like..

[Hammy]

from an hour and half ago..

[url]https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc18/ATL/12L.KIRK/amsr2/89rgb/20180926.1640.gw1.89pct89h89v.12L.KIRK.40kts.1004mb.12N.53.4W.76pc.jpg[url]

[url]https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc18/ATL/12L.KIRK/amsr2/89h/20180926.1640.gw1.89hbt.12L.KIRK.40kts.1004mb.12N.53.4W.76pc.jpg[url]

Looks like the dark spot showing up on visible.

[tailgater]

Looks to me like he is gonna expose himself again, shear monster is coming.

[moja.ram]

Looks to me like he is gonna expose himself again, shear monster is coming.

hey broski.. where is the shear monster located? W?

[GCANE]

Shear is for whimps

[youtube]https://youtu.be/LSHCNTELFI8[/youtube]

[Nimbus]

The center can't be much further north than 12.3N at 54.5W.
Even a storm with sheared outflow can still maintain as long as it has inflow at the surface and lift.
Hopefully the westward building of the subtropical ridging is going to end soon so we get a naked swirl headed for Mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a shallow eye feature is clearing out. convection wrapping to the NW side.

[GCANE]

Lightning picking up in the east band.

[Aric Dunn]

and yep sure enough. the eye feature is there with a curved band wrapping around.

might make a run for hurricane briefly.

from an 30 min ago

[BYG Jacob]

and yep sure enough. the eye feature is there with a curved band wrapping around.

might make a run for hurricane briefly.

from an 30 min ago
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc18/ATL/12L.KIRK/ssmis/91rgb/20180926.1921.f16.91pct91h91v.12L.KIRK.50kts.998mb.12.5N.55W.095pc.jpg

That's one hell of a tail