ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

He's back.

https://i.imgur.com/KS3j492.png

where are pulling that from ? nothing I have is updating.

Link

[brohavwx]

and more evidence...

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc18/ATL/12L.KIRK/gmi/color/1degreeticks/20180925.2331.gpm.x.colorpct_89h_89v_1deg.12LKIRK.35kts-1007mb-114N-486W.056pc.jpg

Trying to close of that circulation? Wow oh boy. Cannot be more agree Aric. So do you think that at 11PM we could see a special statement?

I doubt it, but I think they should. (I realize that question was for Aric but thought i'd chime in with my 2Cents worth lol). Reality is, it's still a couple days away and historically the Island's down there typically require a bit less time for final storm prep; that and the fact that NHC is at most projecting a "possible" T.S. at it's strongest.... I'd guess they're comfortable with holding off until tomm. daylight satellite and recon data to upgrade. Personally, I'd hedge toward upgrading it to a depression now. It essentially meets (even if barely) a good deal of prerequisite characteristics. I'd agree that the evidence for solid west winds are scant but c'mon? It's reasonable to think that it's forward speed and ASCAT cloud density limitations could at least represent a 10% or greater margin of error. Add to the argument that the 18Z GFS is now on board with the EURO suggesting a somewhat stronger cyclone (18Z GFS now showing a sub 1000 mb) to pass through the Islands. Also, the system has maintained a CDO feature more or less over the COC since last night and not showing diurnal fall off nor impact from shear at this time. At least temporarily, Kirk's westward outflow is continuing to win the battle over the approaching upper level shear. I would upgrade the system back to a T.D. at 11:00pm. Worse (and probably unlikely) case scenario would be for convection to suddenly come to a halt during the 3-9 hours to follow. That way if we assume 0Z continuity of the major global models suggesting at least a minimal to moderate T.S. will approach the Islands, NHC will be in a position to simply permit RECON to either confirm the upgrade to T.D., or potentially be in the position to upgrade it to a T.S. should the plane corroborate the increasingly bullish near term model intensity forecast. Finally (and I know this is not the model thread), but look for the 0Z Global runs to possibly continue to show Kirk a bit further north than prior forecasts; This as a result of it's potentially deeper and increasingly vertical structure (funny, maybe the NOGAPS solution is a bit less crazy then everyone would give it credit for being. THAT by the way might open up the potential for an entirely new set of events but i'll leave that for the other thread).

The only thing I beg to differ on is the "historically the Island's down there typically require a bit less time for final storm prep" ... we have nowhere to run, remember that. We seem to get left to the last minute to get Watches and Warnings raised - way less time than the normal textbook defined times.

The fact that the NHC made this a TS when it was just out and off the West African Coast, downgrade it and now when it probably looks better than it did 2,000 miles ago and they want to linger until it is within 24 hours of us (Barbados - a 100 miles farther east than the other islands) before raising an alert, says a lot to us here, and it does not leave us feeling all fuzzy warm and safe here.

Maybe I should remind of Tomas in 2010 ... Wednesday/Thursday its was a vigorous TW, then Friday morning just a TW, then by 5 pm after the Recon goes in we go straight to TS Warning and a hurricane forming right over us as it passed between 5-8 pm the Saturday morning.

Here is my report of back then ... it was not nice being left out like that.

http://www.brohavwx.com/Report-of-the-Development-of-Tropical-Storm-Tomas.pdf

[brohavwx]

P.S. It is noted that the NHC's final report done later in 2011 puts Tomas as a TD the Thursday night. Hindsight didn't help us then.

[chaser1]

:uarrow: Based on that ASCAT data, I'd say Kirk is now a 40-knot tropical storm. Kirk is back and stronger than ever.

Even if one err's on the side of being extra conservative, those multiple 10 and 20 knot west wind barbs now represent the strongest data supporting argument that this is at least a T.D. I just can't see how that conclusion would be deniable. Obviously, I can certainly get how the last thing that NHC would want to do, would be to potentially upgrade back to a T.D. just for convection to suddenly wane and soon after downgrade again to an open wave. Given the persistence of convection, sustained or improved satellite appearance, and model trends suggesting otherwise, I think it's prudent for NHC to call it as they truly see it (whether that be a T.D. or a T.S.).

[moja.ram]

Pretty scary than everyone is questioning the NHC. Makes me wonder

[tolakram]

Pretty scary than everyone is questioning the NHC. Makes me wonder

I don't think everyone is questioning the NHC, just a few.

I would remind everyone to keep it respectful, those are the long standing rules, no exceptions.

[NDG]

Another exhibit
https://scontent.fsig3-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-0/p280x280/42580815_236788900521293_9011351702137208832_n.png?_nc_cat=103&oh=9f0e6c3dab654877c29a2387e33c3242&oe=5C27C4DE

The pass you posted is from this morning.

[floridasun78]

m maybe won t be upgrade because shear coming soon it be weaker by friday

[NDG]

Plenty of evidence that it now has a closed circulation.

[floridasun78]

Plenty of evidence that it now has a closed circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/A6twsw9.gif

look like their wont issue the special statement

[brohavwx]

Pretty scary than everyone is questioning the NHC. Makes me wonder

I don't think everyone is questioning the NHC, just a few.

I would remind everyone to keep it respectful, those are the long standing rules, no exceptions.

You may be the Admin here but I've been the founding Admin for our Facebook group Barbados Weather Watchers for a number of years and even before that been in contact with NOAA/NESDIS as a GOES WEFAX, LRIT and now HRIT user for near three decades, and while I understand your call for being respectful, they (the NHC) like all of us are not perfect and we've been 'left of to dry' a few times - mind you that may well be our own local Met Service's odd attitude toward the public here - so sometimes we have to 'rough it' on our own and I will call it as I see and 'experience' it.

[floridasun78]

look like island will need watch out for quick watch if nhc wait untill it 24 hour before passing by their say their cannot fimnd center by ascat pass by

[Aric Dunn]

IT is rather interesting that ASCAT showed a closed circ as soon as the west side was free of convection..... though this has happened multiple times before.

[brohavwx]

IT is rather interesting that ASCAT showed a closed circ as soon as the west side was free of convection..... though this has happened multiple times before.

Are we seeing the same thing here? Those Light grey wind barbs to the East and ENE are just over 35 knots or 40 mph. Granted the west side still looks weak but we have some good winds near all around there there.

[brohavwx]

And I'm seeing a pretty good CDO there - the question is will it last but it has keep good for the last few hours now ...

[NDG]

Compared to this morning it has a better presentation of a fully closed circulation. Also notice the stronger winds on the SE quadrant, there appears to be even a 40 knot wind barb there.

[NDG]

The 12z Euro may not be that crazy after all, UL winds actually don't look that bad until the system gets close to Barbados, so a steady strengthening over the next 36 hours or so is not out of the question, IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

Well I suppose I will be the one to point out the obvious. And in no way is this "bashing" or " questioning" or anything of the sorts... only a direct observation.

So lets assume that it is passed the advisory time.

A little timeline... NHC uses ASCAT to upgrade the wave to KIRK. then 24 hours after ASCAT shows an open wave the NHC finally decides to downgrade. then for nearly 2 days relies solely on ASCAT(since the large amount of convection made it difficult to use sat) to determine it is still an open wave... now ASCAT shows a defined closed circ with stronger winds and larger structure than it has ever had but waits to upgrade?

waiting for another ASCAT ? when the first upgrade only took 1 ASCAT to be enough evidence... knowing shear will soon increase and ?? waiting for recon?? leaving the islands with less than 48 hours ( regardless if its a TS or a cat 5).

Well hopefully the 2am outlook will explain something..

[emeraldislenc]

Looks much better in organization

[brohavwx]

look like island will need watch out for quick watch if nhc wait untill it 24 hour before passing by their say their cannot fimnd center by ascat pass by

As I alluded to ... we have become accustomed to that now. Many times we have had people going to work on a morning (sometimes school children looking to catch a bus) to find the place closed due to a late watch raised ... same for customers ... and that includes tourists we have on the island from the USA and other parts too.

P.S. Oh, we also have to be concerned of flooding too, even if the winds don't get too high.