WPAC: TRAMI - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
Underestimation continues.
28W TRAMI 180925 0000 19.5N 128.7E WPAC 140 916
28W TRAMI 180925 0000 19.5N 128.7E WPAC 140 916
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
Ehh, I have no qualms with the 140 kt estimate. That's actually the same number I would use in this case.
1 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
WP, 28, 2018091912, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1480E, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 325, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018091918, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1474E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 350, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018092000, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1468E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 280, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018092006, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1462E, 20, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 300, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018092012, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1456E, 20, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 300, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018092018, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1451E, 25, 1003, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 185, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYEIGH, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpG22018 to wp282018,
WP, 28, 2018092100, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1442E, 30, 1003, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 160, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYEIGH, S,
WP, 28, 2018092106, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1434E, 35, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 105, 85, 30, 70, 1006, 160, 65, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYEIGH, M,
WP, 28, 2018092112, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1425E, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 130, 100, 50, 105, 1008, 170, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYEIGH, M,
WP, 28, 2018092118, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1413E, 45, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 145, 145, 65, 120, 1006, 165, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092200, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1402E, 50, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 165, 40, 40, 105, 1006, 165, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092206, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1389E, 50, 985, TS, 34, NEQ, 165, 50, 50, 105, 1007, 175, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092206, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1389E, 50, 985, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 35, 35, 60, 1007, 175, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092212, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1375E, 55, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 165, 60, 55, 115, 1007, 175, 30, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092212, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1375E, 55, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 45, 45, 55, 1007, 175, 30, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092218, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1361E, 65, 985, TY, 34, NEQ, 165, 100, 70, 120, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092218, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1361E, 65, 985, TY, 50, NEQ, 65, 50, 30, 50, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092218, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1361E, 65, 985, TY, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092300, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1352E, 75, 978, TY, 34, NEQ, 165, 95, 75, 135, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092300, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1352E, 75, 978, TY, 50, NEQ, 85, 45, 45, 80, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092300, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1352E, 75, 978, TY, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 25, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092306, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1343E, 95, 962, TY, 34, NEQ, 170, 75, 75, 135, 1005, 200, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092306, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1343E, 95, 962, TY, 50, NEQ, 50, 30, 30, 50, 1005, 200, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092306, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1343E, 95, 962, TY, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1005, 200, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092312, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1332E, 115, 944, TY, 34, NEQ, 160, 100, 105, 150, 1005, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092312, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1332E, 115, 944, TY, 50, NEQ, 90, 50, 55, 80, 1005, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092312, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1332E, 115, 944, TY, 64, NEQ, 45, 25, 30, 45, 1005, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092318, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1321E, 120, 938, TY, 34, NEQ, 155, 115, 140, 170, 1004, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092318, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1321E, 120, 938, TY, 50, NEQ, 85, 60, 75, 95, 1004, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092318, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1321E, 120, 938, TY, 64, NEQ, 45, 30, 40, 50, 1004, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092400, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1311E, 120, 938, TY, 34, NEQ, 180, 115, 120, 165, 1004, 205, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092400, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1311E, 120, 938, TY, 50, NEQ, 100, 60, 65, 95, 1004, 205, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092400, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1311E, 120, 938, TY, 64, NEQ, 55, 30, 35, 50, 1004, 205, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092406, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1304E, 130, 927, ST, 34, NEQ, 175, 145, 120, 165, 1004, 205, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092406, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1304E, 130, 927, ST, 50, NEQ, 100, 80, 65, 95, 1004, 205, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092406, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1304E, 130, 927, ST, 64, NEQ, 55, 45, 35, 50, 1004, 205, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092412, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1297E, 130, 926, ST, 34, NEQ, 195, 170, 155, 180, 1004, 220, 22, 0, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092412, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1297E, 130, 926, ST, 50, NEQ, 110, 95, 85, 100, 1004, 220, 22, 0, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092412, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1297E, 130, 926, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 45, 55, 1004, 220, 22, 0, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092418, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1290E, 140, 916, ST, 34, NEQ, 205, 180, 150, 190, 1004, 210, 22, 170, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092418, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1290E, 140, 916, ST, 50, NEQ, 115, 95, 85, 105, 1004, 210, 22, 170, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092418, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1290E, 140, 916, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 45, 55, 1004, 210, 22, 170, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092500, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1287E, 140, 916, ST, 34, NEQ, 185, 165, 150, 175, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 40, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092500, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1287E, 140, 916, ST, 50, NEQ, 105, 95, 85, 100, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 40, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092500, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1287E, 140, 916, ST, 64, NEQ, 55, 50, 45, 55, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 40, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018091918, , BEST, 0, 127N, 1474E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 350, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018092000, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1468E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 280, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018092006, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1462E, 20, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 300, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018092012, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1456E, 20, 1003, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 300, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
WP, 28, 2018092018, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1451E, 25, 1003, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 185, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYEIGH, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpG22018 to wp282018,
WP, 28, 2018092100, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1442E, 30, 1003, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 160, 70, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYEIGH, S,
WP, 28, 2018092106, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1434E, 35, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 105, 85, 30, 70, 1006, 160, 65, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYEIGH, M,
WP, 28, 2018092112, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1425E, 40, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 130, 100, 50, 105, 1008, 170, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TWENTYEIGH, M,
WP, 28, 2018092118, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1413E, 45, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 145, 145, 65, 120, 1006, 165, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092200, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1402E, 50, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 165, 40, 40, 105, 1006, 165, 60, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092206, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1389E, 50, 985, TS, 34, NEQ, 165, 50, 50, 105, 1007, 175, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092206, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1389E, 50, 985, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 35, 35, 60, 1007, 175, 45, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092212, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1375E, 55, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 165, 60, 55, 115, 1007, 175, 30, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092212, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1375E, 55, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 60, 45, 45, 55, 1007, 175, 30, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092218, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1361E, 65, 985, TY, 34, NEQ, 165, 100, 70, 120, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092218, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1361E, 65, 985, TY, 50, NEQ, 65, 50, 30, 50, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092218, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1361E, 65, 985, TY, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092300, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1352E, 75, 978, TY, 34, NEQ, 165, 95, 75, 135, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092300, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1352E, 75, 978, TY, 50, NEQ, 85, 45, 45, 80, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092300, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1352E, 75, 978, TY, 64, NEQ, 25, 15, 15, 25, 1006, 180, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092306, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1343E, 95, 962, TY, 34, NEQ, 170, 75, 75, 135, 1005, 200, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092306, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1343E, 95, 962, TY, 50, NEQ, 50, 30, 30, 50, 1005, 200, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092306, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1343E, 95, 962, TY, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1005, 200, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092312, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1332E, 115, 944, TY, 34, NEQ, 160, 100, 105, 150, 1005, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092312, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1332E, 115, 944, TY, 50, NEQ, 90, 50, 55, 80, 1005, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092312, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1332E, 115, 944, TY, 64, NEQ, 45, 25, 30, 45, 1005, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092318, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1321E, 120, 938, TY, 34, NEQ, 155, 115, 140, 170, 1004, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092318, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1321E, 120, 938, TY, 50, NEQ, 85, 60, 75, 95, 1004, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092318, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1321E, 120, 938, TY, 64, NEQ, 45, 30, 40, 50, 1004, 200, 7, 0, 5, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092400, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1311E, 120, 938, TY, 34, NEQ, 180, 115, 120, 165, 1004, 205, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092400, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1311E, 120, 938, TY, 50, NEQ, 100, 60, 65, 95, 1004, 205, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092400, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1311E, 120, 938, TY, 64, NEQ, 55, 30, 35, 50, 1004, 205, 15, 0, 20, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092406, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1304E, 130, 927, ST, 34, NEQ, 175, 145, 120, 165, 1004, 205, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092406, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1304E, 130, 927, ST, 50, NEQ, 100, 80, 65, 95, 1004, 205, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092406, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1304E, 130, 927, ST, 64, NEQ, 55, 45, 35, 50, 1004, 205, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092412, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1297E, 130, 926, ST, 34, NEQ, 195, 170, 155, 180, 1004, 220, 22, 0, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092412, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1297E, 130, 926, ST, 50, NEQ, 110, 95, 85, 100, 1004, 220, 22, 0, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092412, , BEST, 0, 193N, 1297E, 130, 926, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 45, 55, 1004, 220, 22, 0, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092418, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1290E, 140, 916, ST, 34, NEQ, 205, 180, 150, 190, 1004, 210, 22, 170, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092418, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1290E, 140, 916, ST, 50, NEQ, 115, 95, 85, 105, 1004, 210, 22, 170, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092418, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1290E, 140, 916, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 45, 55, 1004, 210, 22, 170, 35, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092500, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1287E, 140, 916, ST, 34, NEQ, 185, 165, 150, 175, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 40, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092500, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1287E, 140, 916, ST, 50, NEQ, 105, 95, 85, 100, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 40, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092500, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1287E, 140, 916, ST, 64, NEQ, 55, 50, 45, 55, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 40, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
0 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
Where are you grabbing the full ATCF b-deck from?
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
The expected slowdown is happening. It's stationary at the moment. Hate to be under that ferocious eyewall for hours.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
TY 1824 (Trami)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 25 September 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 25 September>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N19°35' (19.6°)
E128°40' (128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 500 km (270 NM)
S 370 km (200 NM)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 25 September 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 25 September>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N19°35' (19.6°)
E128°40' (128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 500 km (270 NM)
S 370 km (200 NM)
0 likes
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
1900hurricane wrote:Where are you grabbing the full ATCF b-deck from?
DM sent
1 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
If anything, 140kt is generous for a typhoon whose eye is neither embedded nor surrounded by a white ring anymore. Upwelling will become a major problem soon.
0 likes
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
Satellite presentation actually reminds me of Igor '10 during the initial 130 kt peak.
1 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
New ERC attempt
0 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR
18/
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A HIGHLY SYMMETRIC
EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN ENLARGED 39-NM EYE. THE MSI ANIMATION ALSO
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN. THE INITIAL POSITION,
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FROM THE EYE
FEATURE TO ACCOUNT FOR TILT AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 242145Z 37 GHZ SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 140 KNOTS IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK FIXES OF T7.0/140 KTS FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. STY 28W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL INTO A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 28W IS FORECAST TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR EVEN
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN A COL AREA AS THE STEERING STR IS NOW
BEING ERODED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 48, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY REBUILD AND DRIVE THE
SYSTEM BACK TO A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PREVAIL IN THE NEAR-TERM AND MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS UP
TO TAU 12. AFTERWARD, DECREASING OUTFLOW WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING, DOWN TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED WITH THE MAJORITY INDICATING THE POLEWARD TURN
AND JGSM AND NVGM OFFERING A STRAIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOLUTION.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AND A
NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE POLEWARD TRACK AMONG THE MAJORITY MEMBERS. IN
VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
UNLIKELY JGSM/NVGM SOLUTION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY TRAMI WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNDER A REBUILT STR, AND AFTER TAU 96, WILL CREST THE STR RIDGE AND
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER TAU 96, A RESURGENCE IN THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL FUEL A
SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION PHASE, REACHING 115 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT EVEN MORE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, AS WELL.//
NNNN
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
A shrinking CDO diameter on visible imagery may already be an early sign of upwelling.
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
Looks like the WPAC has started a streak of spawning round, clear-eyed Cat 5's starting with Jebi in late August. I wonder how long this streak will last after Trami.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
There's been so much activity lately that nearly the entire Philippines Sea is below average due to upwelling. Looks like another large storm could develop behind Trami, too
0 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
Huge disparity among the models for track.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09250404
SATCON: MSLP = 926 hPa MSW = 124 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 122.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 113 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 210 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -4.0 knots Source: IR
Member Estimates
ADT: 936 hPa 117 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP250440
CIMSS AMSU: 915 hPa 138 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09250113
ATMS: 922.6 hPa 127.4 knots Date: 09250404
SSMIS: 922.6 hPa 127.4 knots Date: 09250404
CIRA ATMS: 939 hPa 117 knots Date: 09231623
Date (mmddhhmm): 09250404
SATCON: MSLP = 926 hPa MSW = 124 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 122.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 113 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 210 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -4.0 knots Source: IR
Member Estimates
ADT: 936 hPa 117 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP250440
CIMSS AMSU: 915 hPa 138 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09250113
ATMS: 922.6 hPa 127.4 knots Date: 09250404
SSMIS: 922.6 hPa 127.4 knots Date: 09250404
CIRA ATMS: 939 hPa 117 knots Date: 09231623
Highly doubt this is a Cat 5 anymore.
WP, 28, 2018092506, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1289E, 135, 922, ST, 34, NEQ, 190, 170, 170, 175, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, ,
WP, 28, 2018092506, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1289E, 135, 922, ST, 50, NEQ, 110, 95, 95, 100, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, ,
WP, 28, 2018092506, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1289E, 135, 922, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 50, 55, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, ,
WP, 28, 2018092506, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1289E, 135, 922, ST, 50, NEQ, 110, 95, 95, 100, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, ,
WP, 28, 2018092506, , BEST, 0, 198N, 1289E, 135, 922, ST, 64, NEQ, 60, 50, 50, 55, 1004, 210, 25, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, ,
0 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
It's rotting away right in front of our eyes. ERC + Upwelling is taking a toll right now. Looks like a low-end Cat 3 right now.
0 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: TRAMI - Typhoon
WP, 28, 2018092512, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1289E, 130, 917, ST, 34, NEQ, 185, 180, 175, 175, 1001, 220, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092512, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1289E, 130, 917, ST, 50, NEQ, 105, 100, 95, 95, 1001, 220, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092512, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1289E, 130, 917, ST, 64, NEQ, 70, 65, 60, 60, 1001, 220, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092512, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1289E, 130, 917, ST, 50, NEQ, 105, 100, 95, 95, 1001, 220, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
WP, 28, 2018092512, , BEST, 0, 200N, 1289E, 130, 917, ST, 64, NEQ, 70, 65, 60, 60, 1001, 220, 20, 0, 30, W, 0, , 0, 0, TRAMI, D,
I don't buy these data at all
1 likes
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest