ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[GCANE]

Consolidating lightning strikes.
Been firing all day long.
Gravity waves now apparent on the cirrus.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty clear we have a well defined circ now. and don't worry about that vort well to the SE it should elongate out soon. you can see tight low level cloud lines on the west side and east side. convction building se along a developing convergent band.

If convection continues I bet we have a TS tomorrow.

[otowntiger]

what direction is this thing moving/forecast to move?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks pretty elongated NW to SE in the circulation. The convergent banding is concerning. If this hooks up with the 500mb trough the rain and conditions are a concern in eastern NC. Any further beach erosion even from a hybrid storm or low TS would be a real problem right now, was just on the beaches on Sat and the dunes really took a beating. The pocket of favorable upper air conditions looks tenuous as well. hence the NHC forecast for unfavorable conditions as the center moves away from the anti-cyclone.

[Hammy]

Latest visible tells me whatever was left of the LLC is spinning down.

[xironman]

:uarrow: Latest visible tells me whatever was left of the LLC is spinning down.

It may be migrating under the convection. Give it 6 hours and see what is happening.

[emeraldislenc]

So is it looking better for NC?

[hurricanedude]

Not sure it was ever looking bad for NC...just a wave skirting past just offshore...nothing much more

[emeraldislenc]

We just do not need any more rain or beach erosion

[hurricanedude]

You probably want get either

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles south-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to become slightly more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form tonight or Tuesday while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday night and
Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase and limit
the chances for additional development while the system moves
northward near the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of
tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely enhance rainfall
across portions of northeastern South Carolina and eastern North
Carolina Tuesday and Tuesday night. In addition, dangerous surf
conditions and rip currents are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast on Tuesday. For more information, please see
products from your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[invest man]

You probably want get either

Sure hope that "blob" doesn't decide to move across the coastal areas!

[ozonepete]

Clearly ramping up.

[Hammy]

Clearly ramping up.

[url=https://imgur.com/J1OKRRN][url]http://i.imgur.com/J1OKRRN.gif]

But the question remains is there anything at the surface? Hopefully the later ASCAT pass (if it doesn't miss) will give a clearer picture.

[MrStormX]

Surprised there are no recon fixes scheduled for this system, given its proximity to land.

[storm4u]

Coming together quick now!!

[ozonepete]

Surprised there are no recon fixes scheduled for this system, given its proximity to land.

There is a RECON mission tentatively scheduled for tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

As stated earlier, we should hopefully get a good idea from ASCAT pass due out shortly on how established the low level circulation and whether it is closed. Looking at satellite my suspicion is the llc may be on the southwestern edge of the convection, which has since waned the past couple of hours.

[ozonepete]

Clearly ramping up.

[url=https://imgur.com/J1OKRRN][url]http://i.imgur.com/J1OKRRN.gif]

But the question remains is there anything at the surface? Hopefully the later ASCAT pass (if it doesn't miss) will give a clearer picture.

The WPC has drawn it in as a 1012 mb low closed off on all sides but the south on their current surface analysis. The question is how well stacked is the convection over the almost closed LLC and what the surface wind strengths are. But the overall satellite appearance indicates a healthy disturbance and there's nothing to indicate that the LLC won't close off if it hasn't already. There's a reason the NHC has raised it to a 50% chance.

[ozonepete]

The WPC has drawn it in as a 1012 mb low closed off on all sides but the south on their current surface analysis. The question is how well stacked is the convection over the almost closed LLC and what the surface wind strengths are. But the overall satellite appearance indicates a healthy disturbance and there's nothing to indicate that the LLC won't close off if it hasn't already. There's a reason the NHC has raised it to a 50% chance.