ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[GCANE]

Very nice continuous hot tower firing at DMAX, obvious from the cirrus layering.
Outflow apparent on the north quad.
Just to the north of the CoC

[storm4u]

Let's see if it continues today

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone right over the top of this.
Zero shear.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it has a chance to spin up a bit. 98L continues over a dry environment, however. The key is if it can sustain the convection today. The EURO run from late yesterday had this system getting rather close to the NC Outer Banks later this week.

[GCANE]

Another short-duration tower firing nearly west of the CoC and closing in.

[ozonepete]

Definitely ramping up now. Clearly at least partially closed LLC getting under the convection burst. The LLC Could quite possibly be closed off now. The upper level anticyclone that GCANE pointed out is surely helping and could keep the convection firing all day even though we're past DMAX.

[plasticup]

Lots of swirl in those low-level clouds. Looks very close to a closed circulation now.

[emeraldislenc]

So how close will it come to NC?

[tomatkins]

So how close will it come to NC?

GFS and Euro both have it skirting the outer banks (or rather, what small amount of vorticity remains on Wednesday morning, since neither sees it developing)

[ozonepete]

Model consensus, per NCAR, is trending to TS near NC coast on Wednesday morning.

[xironman]

So would this be Florence 2.0? Florence was basically absorbed into mid latitude systems which left over this spin as a artifact. I guess they will discuss post season.

[hurricanedude]

Where exactly is the estimated center?

[GCANE]

Strong rain-rate cell captured earlier this morning.
Should contribute to warming the core.

[GCANE]

Recon being tasked

208
NOUS42 KNHC 241548
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON 24 SEPTEMBER 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-123

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 25/2100Z A. 26/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0114A CYCLONE
C. 25/1830Z C. 26/0300Z
D. 25/2030Z TO 26/0030Z D. 26/0500Z TO 26/1130Z
E. 32.5N 76.7W E. 34.0N 76.3W
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS AND
REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION KIRK FOR 26/1500Z NEAR 11.8N 54.0W.

[OuterBanker]

This thing whatever it is, is making no sense. It will probably meet the guillotine sometime on Wednesday, but will it be already strong enough to cause a stir. Next, I thought for sure this would be an east weighted mess not really bothering anyone. Instead it seems for the moment that it is north and west weighted which of course means it could graze the NC coast with winds and rain. Finally, it seems to be really expanding (only for the moment). I’m hoping that it will all dissipate by morning, after all Kirk seems to have met its maker. Leslie is just going to spin around and not bother anyone.
Now we just need to find a good exorcist to get rid of the spawn of Florence.

[GCANE]

Convection firing to the north and west of the CoC seems to be filling in the low-level dry slot.
Wondering if we may be in for a bit of a surprise.

[ozonepete]

Where exactly is the estimated center?

Here's a CIMSS fix from 10:45 AM but I think it's an older fix. LLC should be a little wnw or northwest of there.

[ozonepete]

So would this be Florence 2.0? Florence was basically absorbed into mid latitude systems which left over this spin as a artifact. I guess they will discuss post season.

I just confirmed yesterday with someone from NHC that if they feel that any remnant of Florence can be traced to this circulation then it gets called Florence again. They should be having a hot debate about it right around now.

[GCANE]

High convergent CAPE air feeding this.

[emeraldislenc]

Could this reach tropical storm strength?