Nicholas Forecast 3--shifted left

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... holas.html

[wxman57]

As the NHC is discussing, they can't figure out why the simpler models that don't employ any atmospheric physics (BAMM/BAMD) have a more WNW track, while all the dynamical models that use physics to calculate atmosperic motions indicate an abrupt turn to the NW-N. I would tend to trust the models that use physics over the simpler models that assume a steady-state atmosphere.

But at 20N and 50W, it's a fish storm. It may be driven a bit WNW for a while after that, but there just isn't any strong ridge to its north to keep it going WNW.

[Derek Ortt]

The 0Z AVNI has the system reahcing a peak lat of 17.9N and 108 hours, followed by a WSW job at 120 hours. It has the same track as the BAMD for the most part

[wxman57]

That track looks a bit odd, as there isn't much of a ridge to its north to keep it moving westerly. The GFS may be having mid-range problems, as it tends to do. One thing to note in the GFS is that it has it as a wave or weak TD through 240+ hours, so that may be the reason for the more WNW movement.

But I agree we can't completely write it off as a fish yet.

[Stormsfury]

The ECMWF keeps Nicklaus moving very slowly thru the period.

http://stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/EUROLoop.html

Interestingly enough, see the pattern setting up off of Newfoundland? NAO tanking?

SF