NOTICE A LOT MORE "IFS" IN THE 5 P.M.......

[dixiebreeze]

forecast for TD 19. Sounds like the NHC is now hedging their bets about "Nick" jumping off on a NNE track:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

ON VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CYCLONE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
...HOWEVER THE CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ON ENHANCED IR IMAGES...THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY COLD TOPS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...IN A RATHER AMORPHOUS-LOOKING PATTERN. LATEST DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL EMBEDDED IN
THE ITCZ AND WE WOULD LIKE IT TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ISOLATED
AND/OR SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED BEFORE UPGRADING TO A TROPICAL
STORM. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED
BY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SLOW STRENGTHENING. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE INTENSITY WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION. IF
THE SYSTEM IS FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST...THE SHEAR WILL LIKELY
BE STRONGER RESULTING IN A WEAKER SYSTEM. IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MOVES ALONG A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN EXPECTED....IT SHOULD
EXPERIENCE LESS SHEAR AND PROBABLY GET STRONGER. IT IS OF INTEREST
TO NOTE THAT...SINCE 1900...THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY 7 HURRICANES TO
THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...I.E. IN THE DEEP TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WNW...285/9. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACK FORECASTS.
THE LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL GET CAUGHT UNDER
THE EASTERN END OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CELL AND MOVE ON A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN SHOWN BY THE OTHER MODELS. THE NOGAPS AND
GFDN...WHICH IS DERIVED FROM THE NOGAPS INITIAL FIELD...SHOW A
NORTHWARD MOTION DEVELOPING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE MOST RECENT GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE TRACKS. NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
CYCLONE'S NORTHWARD MOTION COULD BE BLOCKED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER PASCH

[BEER980]

dixiebreeze I only see two "IF's" in the discussion so I am not sure what you are after here. North of track is more shear and South of track is less shear/stronger storm.

[bahamaswx]

She (?) wasn't referring to the actual word, just pointing out that there's many uncertaintys with TD19's track, especially regarding the NNE turn.

[Typhoon_Willie]

That would seem correct! There are some uncertainies about this system...

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks Bahamas and Willie, that's exactly what I meant. Yes, I'm a "she."

[stormchazer]

She (?) wasn't referring to the actual word, just pointing out that there's many uncertaintys with TD19's track, especially regarding the NNE turn.

I understand your feelings on this Dixiebreeze. There seems to be uncertainty hanging in the air that is in direct contradiction to yesterday. Yesterday there was confidence it would go North. There is noticeable back-tracking today.

[Toni - 574]

Yeah, there is a degree of uncertainty here, but I also think it is just a case of the NHC, along with the help of model guidance to finally take a look at other possibilities here other than a quick fish story. The end result could very well be a fish spinner, but I believe much farther west than orginally thought, plus this gives us a little hint of excitement to help finish out the season!!