There looks like some low level inflow on the south of the convection that is starting?
If it is a depression forming wouldn't the IR satellite show a blow up of Red around that area tonight?
From NHC
1. An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigating the disturbance in
the western Gulf of Mexico found a broad and elongated area of low
pressure with a few squalls. Upper-level winds are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could still form before the
system moves inland along the western Gulf coast on Friday. Another
Air Force reconnaissance plane will investigate the system on
Friday if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and
Texas on Friday and Saturday. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system, and refer to products from their local
weather office.
And their "X" is just about the area I'm looking at
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