Will TD#19/Nicholas threat the islands or will go out to sea

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K

Will TD#19/Nicholas threat the islands or will be a fish?

It will threat the islands
18
64%
It will be a fish and out to sea
10
36%
 
Total votes: 28

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146106
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Will TD#19/Nicholas threat the islands or will go out to sea

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2003 5:58 am

It will be a close call but IMO it will go to the northeast of the leewards based on climotology only.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Toni - 574
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 493
Joined: Wed May 28, 2003 9:20 pm
Location: W. Central Florida

#2 Postby Toni - 574 » Tue Oct 14, 2003 6:06 am

I would not be so sure about that Cyc. The NHC hinted at the possibility this AM that the trough may not pick 19 up... It's just a wait and see thing right now, still could easily be a fish before the islands or after. Nice to be able to track another Atlantic storm! 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
stormchazer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2462
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
Location: Lakeland, Florida
Contact:

#3 Postby stormchazer » Tue Oct 14, 2003 8:02 am

Too close to call. The first trough looks like a miss. The second approaching trough is the question mark.
Last edited by stormchazer on Tue Oct 14, 2003 8:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.

User avatar
Weathermaster
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 79
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 10:33 am
Location: Carolina, PR

#4 Postby Weathermaster » Tue Oct 14, 2003 8:09 am

I think there is a good possibility that it will thread the Islands because of the low latitude and strength. I think it will bypass the through.
0 likes   

User avatar
msbee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3037
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2003 10:11 am
Location: St. Maarten

#5 Postby msbee » Tue Oct 14, 2003 12:36 pm

I think it will go norheast of the islands.
that is because I am putting a voodoo curse on it for it to remain a fish!
:lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23007
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#6 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 14, 2003 12:42 pm

Almost certainly a fish, but I wouldn't ignore it if I were in the islands.
0 likes   

User avatar
JCT777
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6251
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2002 9:21 am
Location: Spring Mount, PA
Contact:

#7 Postby JCT777 » Tue Oct 14, 2003 12:45 pm

It's going to be a close call, IMO. It may threaten the northeast leeward islands before turning north and then northeast.
0 likes   

JetMaxx

#8 Postby JetMaxx » Tue Oct 14, 2003 4:54 pm

I believe it will be a close call...especially for the northern Leewards.
0 likes   

ColdFront77

#9 Postby ColdFront77 » Wed Oct 15, 2003 1:24 am

I agree with it being a close call by most thinking that it will be a close enough to be a threat to the Leeward Islands.
Last edited by ColdFront77 on Wed Oct 15, 2003 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
george_r_1961
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3171
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Carbondale, Pennsylvania

#10 Postby george_r_1961 » Wed Oct 15, 2003 6:20 am

It could clip the northeast islands..even that is doubtful IMO. Folks in Bermuda should watch Nicholas though.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, 869MB, abajan, Argcane, Cpv17, gib, hurricane2025, HurricaneFan, hurricanes1234, Ian2401, Kazmit, LAF92, LarryWx, Pelicane, saila, StPeteMike, TampaWxLurker and 137 guests