ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheDreamTraveler]

70F+ dewpoint well inland.
No inhibition here.
Might blow up this afternoon.

http://i66.tinypic.com/dxfqk7.png

Yeah I still think Florence has a chance to restrengthen...but its huge size is definitely going to prevent it from doing it quickly.

[Rail Dawg]

Am on the Cape Fear River right now and the level is low with an outgoing tide that is becoming slack.

High tide around noon with another one around midnight.

Will watch the levels rise to perhaps 10 ft or more from where I’m standing.

[GCANE]

Convective Cap lifting along the coast.

[Laminar]

What would that imply GCANE?

[dukeblue219]

http://i66.tinypic.com/2z9mb93.png

http://i64.tinypic.com/10mqu1k.jpg

There's essentially no wind maximum in the NE to NW quad... That recon graph really shows that the wind is remarkably uniform out there. Really interesting, and not a good sign for the OBX.

[ronjon]

Wow Florence almost the size of the entire state of South Carolina on radar.

[Rail Dawg]

Here’s Bill Hemmer from Fox News doing his thing:


e550 4matic 0 60

[tropicwatch]

People were talking about cooler water along the coast. Checked some of the buoys and along the coast they are reporting 83 degrees +. That is not that cool.

[artist]

Derek Ortt
@DerekOrtt
·
5h
Due to the very large size of
#Florence
, conditions are going to deteriorate rapidly starting later this morning. If you stayed on the coast of NC, you need to leave NOW. Escape roads will likely be cut off later this morning by the incoming tidal surge

[Vdogg]

004
URNT12 KNHC 131229 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 13/11:45:40Z
B. 33.08 deg N 075.15 deg W
C. 700 mb 2720 m
D. 957 mb
E. 120 deg 6 kt
F. OPEN NE
G. C20
H. 76 kt
I. 227 deg 13 nm 11:41:30Z
J. 318 deg 79 kt
K. 227 deg 13 nm 11:41:30Z
L. 71 kt
M. 045 deg 18 nm 11:51:00Z
N. 133 deg 90 kt
O. 046 deg 21 nm 11:52:00Z
P. 12 C / 3052 m
Q. 16 C / 3049 m
R. NA / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF302 1406A FLORENCE OB 03 CCA
MAX FL WIND 90 KT 046 / 21 NM 11:52:00Z
;

Yes, but the pass was when it was still open, time slot on radar also showed that it was open but since then the radar shows that is trying really hard to keep it closed.

https://i.imgur.com/8Tq68wr.gif?1
https://i.imgur.com/4dK38Qj.gif

Looking at this motion it certainly looks like it's going to landfall on the southern OBX. This puts it on the right side of the cone.

[ronjon]

Eyewall appears to be closed the last hour or so - getting a boost from the gulf stream?

[ronjon]

Looking at this motion it certainly looks like it's going to landfall on the southern OBX. This puts it on the right side of the cone.

Flo is slowing down and will gradually bend back to the W-NW or W later today.

[artist]

Those second guessing close to the coast, remember the NHC reported a wave height of 83 ft to the ne of the center yesterday. Please go. It isn’t worth it. Imagine one even a quarter that hitting the coastline.

[Blown Away]

Does anybody have links to webcams in storm surge areas?

[artist]

Does anybody have links to webcams in storm surge areas?

First post in the evacuation thread.

[Cypresso]

Those second guessing close to the coast, remember the NHC reported a wave height of 83 ft to the ne of the center yesterday. Please go. It isn’t worth it. Imagine one even a quarter that hitting the coastline.

Some folks I know there in that area believe it is a "shelter in place storm." I disagree with that stream of thought and have shared my disagreement, but to no avail.

[artist]

Those second guessing close to the coast, remember the NHC reported a wave height of 83 ft to the ne of the center yesterday. Please go. It isn’t worth it. Imagine one even a quarter that hitting the coastline.

Some folks I know there in that area believe it is a "shelter in place storm." I disagree with that stream of thought and have shared my disagreement, but to no avail.

If you can, mention to them the 83 ft wave. Tell them they also recorded some in the 50 ft + range, as well. This is not something you can survive.

[xironman]

People were talking about cooler water along the coast. Checked some of the buoys and along the coast they are reporting 83 degrees +. That is not that cool.

I think it is because once you are on the continental shelf the water is not so deep.

[Cypresso]

Those second guessing close to the coast, remember the NHC reported a wave height of 83 ft to the ne of the center yesterday. Please go. It isn’t worth it. Imagine one even a quarter that hitting the coastline.

Some folks I know there in that area believe it is a "shelter in place storm." I disagree with that stream of thought and have shared my disagreement, but to no avail.

If you can, mention to them the 83 ft wave. Tell them they also recorded some in the 50 ft + range, as well. This is not something you can survive.

I did yesterday, when I posted that number in chat. That was when I first heard about it. The live Frying Pan Ocean Cam has shown quite a bit of deterioration in the short while I have had it up as well.

[supercane4867]

Pressure appears to be dropping in this pass. No stronger winds found, however.