ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[chaser1]

Nearly a week ago I pegged Florence to strike Florence (S.C.); 'course then I re-thought that and changed that guess to Savannah. Never sway from your first gut decision One thing I never would've guessed is for nearly all the models to bring this massive storm right up to the coast as a potential menacing Cat 4 or Cat 5, then stall and not landfall until possibly a significantly weaker Cat 2 hurricane. Regardless, this will likely have a huge massively destructive impact on so many miles of coastline before still bringing hurricane force conditions inland and flooding rains over several states.

[SouthFLTropics]

The stall commences at approximately 48 hours. On a side note, Isaac looks a lot healthier on this run of the GFS.

[Bocadude85]

The stall commences at approximately 48 hours. On a side note, Isaac looks a lot healthier on this run of the GFS.

I have to wonder if this stall is being over forecasted by the models, I would think she either moves slightly farther inland or stalls a little farther offshore and starts a slow drift to the south.

[Ken711]

For what it's worth the 12z GFS is a hair north at 24 hours.

Could the stall off the coast be further west of Wilmington toward Morehead City and Hatteras perhaps?

It looks like GFS has Florence hitting Wilmington while moving west

Slightly weaker.

[bonjourno]

Spending quite a few hours right on Cape Fear.

[Ken711]

The stall commences at approximately 48 hours. On a side note, Isaac looks a lot healthier on this run of the GFS.

I have to wonder if this stall is being over forecasted by the models, I would think she either moves slightly farther inland or stalls a little farther offshore and starts a slow drift to the south.

The OBX are going to get hit hard with the stall to the west of Wilmington as the GFS is showing as is the Wilmington area itself.

[Bocadude85]

The 12z GFS is more inline with the 0z Euro, the main difference is the GFS has Florence moving southwest just inland.

[bonjourno]

Seems to go northwest at hour 108

[crimi481]

Being that Models show Flo will be surrounded my ridges, only way it can go is south? Wonder if NE Gulf in play?

[ronjon]

Wow, 12z GFS brings hurricane conditions to the southeast NC coast from 2 am Friday morning to 2 pm Saturday - essentially drifting along SW along the coast for 36 hrs!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018091212&fh=180

[plasticup]

Being that Models show Flo will be surrounded my ridges, only way it can go is south? Wonder if NE Gulf in play?

As the ridge over the Tennessee Valley erodes a path NE should open up. And by that time it will be so torn up that there wouldn't be much to reform anyway.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS want to loop back around for another go, more insanity from the GFS but in a pattern like this it’s very possible

[sittingduck]

Being that Models show Flo will be surrounded my ridges, only way it can go is south? Wonder if NE Gulf in play?

As the ridge over the Tennessee Valley erodes a path NE should open up. And by that time it will be so torn up that there wouldn't be much to reform anyway.

Look like that is what the GFS does - which explains the comment in the 11 am discussion. Still hangs around too long in NC/SC

[bonjourno]

I'm inclined to put more stock in whatever the Euro comes out with next. If it's similar to its 0z solution, I imagine NHC would have to move the cone south again.

[Bocadude85]

The 12z UKMET looks to have shifted a tad more southwest, looks to have final landfall just south of Myrtle Beach

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS want to loop back around for another go, more insanity from the GFS but in a pattern like this it’s very possible

Oops what I see heading to Florida is a the system forming near Bermuda not Florence

[BensonTCwatcher]

12Z GFS - While still mostly in agreement ( global model scale) with the previous run overall, is huge difference in the effects from NC/SC line up to cape lookout. I don't see any changes coming to official track though based on the variances, because they are all just variations to the local forecast i.e. if the current euro verifies folks in Raleigh will have a much reduced impact. If the 12Z GFS verifies- Raleigh and west to Winston Salem are back to increased misery. In all cases though, having been at the coast for all the hurricanes since 1992 - including the headliners - Fran, Floyd, Isabelle, Bonnie, Ophelia, Mathew- Florence is all about the storm surge on top of the rain induced flooding. Throw in some big wave action on top of that (keenly watching the slosh model outputs) and there will be Katrina or Hugo like photos coming afterward... We just have not had a storm with this much overall energy coming ashore since maybe Hazel. I'm glad we have much better modeling since Fran- While it's jarring, NC DOT did not have to reverse the I-40 lanes yesterday or today and folks were taking the forecasts seriously that I could see in Wilmington yesterday. Pretty strong agreement that no matter where the huge eye tracks- all the model solutions re showing huge surge potential from Brunswick Co. up through the Outer banks and Pamlico sounds. Not to mention the 83 waves noted in the NE quad.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[MetsIslesNoles]

So with the SW movement in the GFS does that mean the "right" bias would be too far inland with it?

[Hurricaneman]

So with the SW movement in the GFS does that mean the "right" bias would be too far inland with it?

Yep, wish the bias was gone