ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Parungo]

Scary solution ECMWF 00h





mm rain

[Ken711]

FV3-GFS landfall North Myrtle Beach area.

[northjaxpro]

Wow EURO has eyewall of Florence travering through interiior Southeast Georgia after landfalling in Savannah. Man this definitely has my razor focus attention if the EURO is right about this .

[tallywx]

Both 06z GFS and FV3 backing off the extent of the retrograde. Into Myrtle Beach Area and then mainly west.

[NDG]

:uarrow: Wow EURO has eyewall of Florence travering through interiior Southeast Geirgia after landfalling in Savannah. Man this definitely has my razor focus attention if the EURO is right about this .

You would see TS conditions in your area if the latest Euro is correct, with a landfall just south of Savannah.

[northjaxpro]

Yes sir NDG that is correct.

[Mouton]

:uarrow: Wow EURO has eyewall of Florence travering through interiior Southeast Geirgia after landfalling in Savannah. Man this definitely has my razor focus attention if the EURO is right about this .

JaxPro I was chatting about that ridge days ago. I was projecting a Dora but this is more Betsy like. We need keep an eye on the speed of storm. Should it put the brakes on sooner than expected, it would portend a WSW move earlier. So far today, don't see that happening but the day is young. Last fix looks about 29w shade west of 70, heading of 290 or so. The ECMF shows landfall south of Savannah (!) which would really be too close for comfort here in N Fla given the trend south.

Mine are the opinions of a rank amateur and no one should take my opinions for more than that. Pay attention to the info furnished by the NHC and local professional weather officials when making property and personal safety issues.

[northjaxpro]

Nimbus earlier posted that he was thinking that Florence may be showing subtle signs of slowing down currently, which I tend to agree.

This is something I am really watching for today because if Florence is slowing down her forward motion, this would be definitely earlier than anticipated. Mouton this is getting a rather uneasyfeeling at the moment potentially.

[chris_fit]

00Z Euro Ensembles - FL back in Play

I may have used the laughing emoji, but deep inside

[Blown Away]

00Z Euro Ensembles - FL back in Play

I may have used the laughing emoji, but deep inside

https://i.imgur.com/4m8j1jO.png

What's interesting to me is many of those ensembles are still diving SW at the end of run.

[chris_fit]

00Z Euro Ensembles - FL back in Play

I may have used the laughing emoji, but deep inside

[url]https://i.imgur.com/4m8j1jO.png/url]

What's interesting to me is many of those ensembles are still diving SW at the end of run.

I only posted the 5 day ensembles - they are all over the place and hard to see at the full 10 days.

[ronjon]

Both 06z GFS and FV3 backing off the extent of the retrograde. Into Myrtle Beach Area and then mainly west.

Yes we'll have to see if this is a trend - if so, good for points south along Ga and SC coasts. All eyes on 12z suite of models now.

[cjrciadt]

00Z Euro Ensembles - FL back in Play

I may have used the laughing emoji, but deep inside

https://i.imgur.com/4m8j1jO.png

What's interesting to me is many of those ensembles are still diving SW at the end of run.

My detailed rebuttal: No No No No No

[Blown Away]

Both 06z GFS and FV3 backing off the extent of the retrograde. Into Myrtle Beach Area and then mainly west.

Yes we'll have to see if this is a trend - if so, good for points south along Ga and SC coasts. All eyes on 12z suite of models now.

So if a system is moving SW, the right biased GFS model would be leaning more W and the left biased Euro more S?

[caneman]

Both 06z GFS and FV3 backing off the extent of the retrograde. Into Myrtle Beach Area and then mainly west.

Yes we'll have to see if this is a trend - if so, good for points south along Ga and SC coasts. All eyes on 12z suite of models now.

Based on the 5 am disco, I'm not sure the NHC is buying that. They admit they're on the Northern edge and the ridge building in 2 days would seem likely to push a SW dive. We'll see

[ronjon]

Both 06z GFS and FV3 backing off the extent of the retrograde. Into Myrtle Beach Area and then mainly west.

Yes we'll have to see if this is a trend - if so, good for points south along Ga and SC coasts. All eyes on 12z suite of models now.

Based on the 5 am disco, I'm not sure the NHC is buying that. They admit they're on the Northern edge and the ridge building in 2 days would seem likely to push a SW dive. We'll see

The NHC defintiely has a preference for the ECM which based on its performance not surprising. Let's see where the 12z run of the ECM tracks Flo. We have to remember the models are being constantly updated with upper air soundings now so we may see more run-to-run changes now.

[jlauderdal]

00Z Euro Ensembles - FL back in Play

I may have used the laughing emoji, but deep inside

https://i.imgur.com/4m8j1jO.png

hurricane betsy 64 made it to 30n and came back to 25n so there is precedent for at least a 300 mile move to the south in this part of that basin, will see if it makes it that far but jax is in play

[TheDreamTraveler]

[caneman]

Yes we'll have to see if this is a trend - if so, good for points south along Ga and SC coasts. All eyes on 12z suite of models now.

Based on the 5 am disco, I'm not sure the NHC is buying that. They admit they're on the Northern edge and the ridge building in 2 days would seem likely to push a SW dive. We'll see

The NHC defintiely has a preference for the ECM which based on its performance not surprising. Let's see where the 12z run of the ECM tracks Flo. We have to remember the models are being constantly updated with upper air soundings now so we may see more run-to-run changes now.

GFS has been jumping all around. The models have seemed to have an east tendency all along unless the trend stops, I'm betting a more southerly landfall. We'll see. A stall and the sw movement prior to landfall can have huge implications for other areas.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1039857182748098565