ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[FLeastcoast]

[quote="Bocadude85"]0z GFS ensemble mean is into South Carolina

[url]http://i64.tinypic.com/mjwdb4.png[
what do you click on in tropical tidbits to get it to show all the groups of lines together like that?

[Bocadude85]

0z ECMWF is still moving southwest offshore South Carolina at hour 96

[Bocadude85]

0z GFS ensemble mean is into South Carolina

[url]http://i64.tinypic.com/mjwdb4.png[
what do you click on in tropical tidbits to get it to show all the groups of lines together like that?

Click current storms and when you get to Florence click GFS ensembles

[meriland29]

Are the waters notably warmer near the GA/SC area than the NC?

[Bocadude85]

0z ECMWF has landfall just south of Savannah in 120 hours.

[Brent]

[TheDreamTraveler]

I almost want to hit my head from that euro run.

Also I remember somebody was arguing that Florence can't hit Georgia or that area of Florida because of climatology lol. Well sure looks like a possibility now...Sometimes you have to throw climatology out the window.

If Florence starts moving again and the entire eye can stay over water then it can definitely strengthen if there's nothing to inhibit its growth. That would be horrible for Georgia.

[AtlanticWind]

Definitely a trend much further south today.

[Hammy]

I almost want to hit my head from that euro run.

Also I remember somebody was arguing that Florence can't hit Georgia or that area of Florida because of climatology lol. Well sure looks like a possibility now...Sometimes you have to throw climatology out the window.

If Florence starts moving again and the entire eye can stay over water then it can definitely strengthen if there's nothing to inhibit its growth. That would be horrible for Georgia.

I'm starting to think that weird crazy run from a few weeks ago that had Florence hitting Jacksonville from the northeast might not be too far off. This thing is almost giving the finger to climatology, like every time someone says it can't do something it's a challenge.

[Hurrilurker]

This is really getting nutty. At this point, Jacksonville, FL might want to start making preparations. This would also make for a much larger disaster in both lives and damage, as Jacksonville's population is many times larger than Savannah, Charleston, or anything anywhere along that stretch of coast.

[FLeastcoast]

This is really getting nutty. At this point, Jacksonville, FL might want to start making preparations. This would also make for a much larger disaster in both lives and damage, as Jacksonville's population is many times larger than Savannah, Charleston, or anything anywhere along that stretch of coast.

I am near Jax, FL. I am definitely watching it closely. All local news stations say we have zero to worry about. ..I am still going to watch it.

[AtlanticWind]

Florence re emerges out in the Atlantic off n carolina on the euro at 216 hrs

[chaser1]

While I'd definitely agree that given nearly all models are slamming the breaks on landfall, there's just as much chance that Flo goes barely inland as there is that she slides SW to near Savannah. To suggest that she drop south a bit more and closer to Jax is not out of the realm of plausible. That hardly suggests that it will happen nor if it did does it mean that Jax is suddenly looking down the barrel of a Cat 4 hurricane either. Guess we'll have to sit and wait. I'd highly doubt that the Jax area need to worry that much but to suggest it's just not possible is outright ignorant.

[AtlanticWind]

Florence makes a big circle ends up off s.carolina coast at 240 hrs, strangest run I ever saw

[chaser1]

Florence makes a big circle ends up off s.carolina coast at 240 hrs, strangest run I ever saw

This season just gets weirder and weirder! Just when you've thought you'd seen it all. Due you realize that run where the EURO brings Flo over the U.S. for an entire 6 days before bringing the storm back over water and re-intensifying to what looks like at least a depression and possibly a storm. SIX DAYS??? There's no way any prior storm has ever made landfall and then regenerated back to a tropical system after that long a period Just nuts.....

[FLeastcoast]

Florence makes a big circle ends up off s.carolina coast at 240 hrs, strangest run I ever saw

That is crazy..I agree...very strange!

[FLeastcoast]

Florence makes a big circle ends up off s.carolina coast at 240 hrs, strangest run I ever saw

This season just gets weirder and weirder! Just when you've thought you'd seen it all. Due you realize that run where the EURO brings Flo over the U.S. for an entire 6 days before bringing the storm back over water and re-intensifying to what looks like at least a depression and possibly a storm. SIX DAYS??? There's no way any prior storm has ever made landfall and then regenerated back to a tropical system after that long a period Just nuts.....

Do you have any theories on why this storm is so difficult to pin down what it is going to do?

[aperson]

Florence makes a big circle ends up off s.carolina coast at 240 hrs, strangest run I ever saw

This season just gets weirder and weirder! Just when you've thought you'd seen it all. Due you realize that run where the EURO brings Flo over the U.S. for an entire 6 days before bringing the storm back over water and re-intensifying to what looks like at least a depression and possibly a storm. SIX DAYS??? There's no way any prior storm has ever made landfall and then regenerated back to a tropical system after that long a period Just nuts.....

Do you have any theories on why this storm is so difficult to pin down what it is going to do?

When the last ridge moves away out of steering range, and there's no trough close enough to pull the system out, steering comes down to which butterfly flaps its wings the right way.

Also, similar reformations have happened before:

[forecasterjack]

Latest EPS (http://wx.graphics/models/eps_florence.png) lot of members doing the stall. One lone recurve

[FLeastcoast]

This season just gets weirder and weirder! Just when you've thought you'd seen it all. Due you realize that run where the EURO brings Flo over the U.S. for an entire 6 days before bringing the storm back over water and re-intensifying to what looks like at least a depression and possibly a storm. SIX DAYS??? There's no way any prior storm has ever made landfall and then regenerated back to a tropical system after that long a period Just nuts.....

Do you have any theories on why this storm is so difficult to pin down what it is going to do?

When the last ridge moves away out of steering range, and there's no trough close enough to pull the system out, steering comes down to which butterfly flaps its wings the right way.

Also, similar reformations have happened before:

Interesting. Thanks for answering. It is scary to have such a strong storm out there and not really knowing very well where it might be heading eventually...let's hope the butterflies flap their wings to send Flo away from land!!