ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[PandaCitrus]

69 hours stalled right at the coast. No landfall yet.

[PTPatrick]

yeah this GFS run doesn't look like it landfalls this run...and even backs east a bit off the coast of Jacksonville/MOrehead areas. So weird...

[Ken711]

Looks like a slight north movement 72hrs.

[Captkeith2]

11:00 NHC forecast discussion and track seems to heavily discount 00Z ECMWF, GFS, FV3. Keeps the storm well north of all three models. Forecast Discussion acknowledges such. Any thoughts on real SE SC threat ? Is this a controlled forecast retreat to a southward track, allowing time for SC governor to reinstate rescinded evacuation order (done at noon today) of southern South Carolina counties or am I missing something ? I have to admit the 00Z runs were pretty hard to believe but.....

Not trying to say I know what's in the mind of the NHC, but I think they know the stronger the storm and slower to spin down, the more north she goes as a cat 4, then the drift west because of weakening , then back north as D because it's rounding the edge of the next high pressure moving east! I'm no met, but I find it difficult to buy into the SW moves as a H. Also they have not moved the LF point much today in the first 3 days. Beyond that depends on strength of cyclone and position of the high pressure. Maybe I'm wrong about all! IM

Yep me too. Been watching and working on the coast for thirty years. Evacuated, stayed, run and fought. This is a new one. Hugo, Bertha, Floyd, Matthew, Irma, and a few other I can’t remember. but this is a new one. Have a lot of gear in the water. Have to deploy to hurricane moorings before conditions deteriorate. Can’t wait to see what 0500 Forecast Discussion brings.

[PandaCitrus]

78 hours still stalled at the coast.

[chaser1]

78 hours still stalled at the coast.

Maybe the start of a cyclonic loop, and then wsw into N.E. South Carolina

[PandaCitrus]

84 hours looks like a south west movement has begun.

[Raebie]

78 hours still stalled at the coast.

It's just sitting there tearing the crap out of everything.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This run looks awful. It puts cities along the NC coast in the eyewall of a major hurricane for almost a day. That's the only thing I could imagine would be worse than a major hurricane landfall.

[PandaCitrus]

How big the eyewall will make all the difference. If it's small, perhaps the eyewall won't be battering the coast for 48 hours with the extreme winds. If we have a 40 mile wide eye, it's possible the actually core will be over the coast for 2 days.

[Raebie]

This run looks awful. It puts cities along the NC coast in the eyewall of a major hurricane for almost a day. That's the only thing I could imagine would be worse than a major hurricane landfall.

More than a day. Going on 2. This can't be right.

[PandaCitrus]

Landfall at Cape Fear at 90 hours with the south west movement.

[PandaCitrus]

99 hours offshore Myrtle Beach raking SC coast with eyewall

[Blinhart]

11:00 NHC forecast discussion and track seems to heavily discount 00Z ECMWF, GFS, FV3. Keeps the storm well north of all three models. Forecast Discussion acknowledges such. Any thoughts on real SE SC threat ? Is this a controlled forecast retreat to a southward track, allowing time for SC governor to reinstate rescinded evacuation order (done at noon today) of southern South Carolina counties or am I missing something ? I have to admit the 00Z runs were pretty hard to believe but.....

Not trying to say I know what's in the mind of the NHC, but I think they know the stronger the storm and slower to spin down, the more north she goes as a cat 4, then the drift west because of weakening , then back north as D because it's rounding the edge of the next high pressure moving east! I'm no met, but I find it difficult to buy into the SW moves as a H. Also they have not moved the LF point much today in the first 3 days. Beyond that depends on strength of cyclone and position of the high pressure. Maybe I'm wrong about all! IM

It can definitely move SW even as a Major, it all depends on the Ridge to the North and to the West.

[Ken711]

102 hrs now SC coast feeling Florence.

[PandaCitrus]

Looks like landfall at 102 hours north of Charleston

[WilmingtonSandbar]

11:00 NHC forecast discussion and track seems to heavily discount 00Z ECMWF, GFS, FV3. Keeps the storm well north of all three models. Forecast Discussion acknowledges such. Any thoughts on real SE SC threat ? Is this a controlled forecast retreat to a southward track, allowing time for SC governor to reinstate rescinded evacuation order (done at noon today) of southern South Carolina counties or am I missing something ? I have to admit the 00Z runs were pretty hard to believe but.....

The NHC does not do things so Governors can do something. They post most likely outcomes, based on their observations.

[PTPatrick]

the good news If there is any, is that it doesn't move the cat 4 eyewall ashore(which I would not count on if I lived there) and that is shows basically a cat 1 after late Friday night as it scapes south. This GFS run would be more of a rain event for SC but it would be the whole shebang for NC with or without landfall. Again though, with no obvious steering you cant really count on any of it if you live between Charleston and MB and certainly if you are north of that you shouldn't count on it.

[Captkeith2]

11:00 NHC forecast discussion and track seems to heavily discount 00Z ECMWF, GFS, FV3. Keeps the storm well north of all three models. Forecast Discussion acknowledges such. Any thoughts on real SE SC threat ? Is this a controlled forecast retreat to a southward track, allowing time for SC governor to reinstate rescinded evacuation order (done at noon today) of southern South Carolina counties or am I missing something ? I have to admit the 00Z runs were pretty hard to believe but.....

The NHC does not do things so Governors can do something. They post most likely outcomes, based on their observations.

Will be sleeping fitfully until 0500 Forecast Discussion.

[Bocadude85]

0z GFS is very similar to the 12Z ECMWF brings Florence almost down to Savannah.