ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Did the TAB series replace the BAMs?

YES>. i just cant call them anything but BAM.. lol

[WilmingtonSandbar]

just thinking about timing and looking at these models, its entirely possible according to GFS that the area that sticks out (southport, just down from Wilmington) will probably have Onset of TS conditions late tomorrow night. They would continue most of the Thursday and hurricane conditions would begin late Thursday. The hurricane conditions would last from late Thursday night through all day Friday. And most of Saturday. It would finally go back to more typical TS conditions for Sunday and last through about MOnday morning. That is 4+ days of TS conditions and about 2 days of hurricane conditions!

I live 5 minutes from Southport, and when I started calculating the very same thing this evening, it started to make me a little nauseous.

[PTPatrick]

just thinking about timing and looking at these models, its entirely possible according to GFS that the area that sticks out (southport, just down from Wilmington) will probably have Onset of TS conditions late tomorrow night. They would continue most of the Thursday and hurricane conditions would begin late Thursday. The hurricane conditions would last from late Thursday night through all day Friday. And most of Saturday. It would finally go back to more typical TS conditions for Sunday and last through about MOnday morning. That is 4+ days of TS conditions and about 2 days of hurricane conditions!

I live 5 minutes from Southport, and when I started calculating the very same thing this evening, it started to make me a little nauseous.

I feel for you. Hopefully it drops back a category or 2 by Friday or saturday and you arent dealing with the worst wind a cat 3 can throw. If you stay hopefully you are on high ground in a solid home without big trees to fall on it. Its going to be a long few days. I went through a couple of 24-48 hr stallers in my younger days and it is interesting for about 8 hrs then it just gets boring.

[bigGbear]

00z NAM (fwiw) is stronger and faster than 18z but loops back sw and never makes landfall
in the 60 hours. Ends up just off Cape Fear at 959 mb (up from best around 929)

[wayoutfront]

just thinking about timing and looking at these models, its entirely possible according to GFS that the area that sticks out (southport, just down from Wilmington) will probably have Onset of TS conditions late tomorrow night. They would continue most of the Thursday and hurricane conditions would begin late Thursday. The hurricane conditions would last from late Thursday night through all day Friday. And most of Saturday. It would finally go back to more typical TS conditions for Sunday and last through about MOnday morning. That is 4+ days of TS conditions and about 2 days of hurricane conditions!

I live 5 minutes from Southport, and when I started calculating the very same thing this evening, it started to make me a little nauseous.

I feel for you. Hopefully it drops back a category or 2 by Friday or saturday and you arent dealing with the worst wind a cat 3 can throw. If you stay hopefully you are on high ground in a solid home without big trees to fall on it. Its going to be a long few days. I went through a couple of 24-48 hr stallers in my younger days and it is interesting for about 8 hrs then it just gets boring.

I am being nosey ..can you recall the ones that stalled at landfall ...my short term memory only goes back to Floyd over NC and i think Issac over La, Harvey over TX
And that one over SC a couple years ago...I know this is off topic ..but I dont know how else to ask

[invest man]

NHC 11 pm plots seems reasonable to me! I can't but a SW turn as a H. Maybe a depression or mid grade TS but not a H.

[Captkeith2]

11:00 NHC forecast discussion and track seems to heavily discount 00Z ECMWF, GFS, FV3. Keeps the storm well north of all three models. Forecast Discussion acknowledges such. Any thoughts on real SE SC threat ? Is this a controlled forecast retreat to a southward track, allowing time for SC governor to reinstate rescinded evacuation order (done at noon today) of southern South Carolina counties or am I missing something ? I have to admit the 00Z runs were pretty hard to believe but.....

[Aric Dunn]

gfs is running

[PandaCitrus]

Usually, the NHC will wait to see if the outlier models become trends either in the data or with consecutive consistent tracks. They don't like to make drastic changes (windshield wiper effect) in forecasts as that tends to erode confidence with the public.

[Blinhart]

11:00 NHC forecast discussion and track seems to heavily discount 00Z ECMWF, GFS, FV3. Keeps the storm well north of all three models. Forecast Discussion acknowledges such. Any thoughts on real SE SC threat ? Is this a controlled forecast retreat to a southward track, allowing time for SC governor to reinstate rescinded evacuation order (done at noon today) of southern South Carolina counties or am I missing something ? I have to admit the 00Z runs were pretty hard to believe but.....

I think they are being precautious of it being a one-off on the models. I think they want to see if it happens again in the 00Z suites, if it does then they will have to start adjusting more to the South. If I read correctly the 00Z suites will have all the information that GONZO got in there to have a better understanding of ridge.

[invest man]

11:00 NHC forecast discussion and track seems to heavily discount 00Z ECMWF, GFS, FV3. Keeps the storm well north of all three models. Forecast Discussion acknowledges such. Any thoughts on real SE SC threat ? Is this a controlled forecast retreat to a southward track, allowing time for SC governor to reinstate rescinded evacuation order (done at noon today) of southern South Carolina counties or am I missing something ? I have to admit the 00Z runs were pretty hard to believe but.....

Not trying to say I know what's in the mind of the NHC, but I think they know the stronger the storm and slower to spin down, the more north she goes as a cat 4, then the drift west because of weakening , then back north as D because it's rounding the edge of the next high pressure moving east! I'm no met, but I find it difficult to buy into the SW moves as a H. Also they have not moved the LF point much today in the first 3 days. Beyond that depends on strength of cyclone and position of the high pressure. Maybe I'm wrong about all! IM

[Aric Dunn]

42 hours gfs stalling and bombing out over gulfstream turn west looks earlier and offshore

[PandaCitrus]

GFS through 48 hours.

[PandaCitrus]

Very close to landfall near Jacksonville, NC at 60 hours

[Raebie]

Very close to Wilmington at 54.

[PTPatrick]

what would 930 with this wind field support? low cat 4? I mean I know its technically low cat 4 now at 940 but it seems they were generous with this advisory. If this thing bombs at 48hr then the Carolinas do have a serious mess on their hands (if they didn't already). especially since a landfall around 60 hrs seems as possible as a stall offshore.

[PandaCitrus]

It's hard to say. It could still be a Cat 3 at 930 but with hurricane winds 120 miles in all directions. The low pressure can either support extreme winds in a small area or lesser winds over a broad area.

[Raebie]

Same spot at 66. Move dammit.

[SunnyThoughts]

Hour 66, looks to be trying to slide back off the coast

[Ken711]

Very close to landfall near Jacksonville, NC at 60 hours

Yes slightly north of 18z.