NICK LOOKING VERY MUCH LIKE A TS..........

[dixiebreeze]

this afternoon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Steve H.]

But the LCC is somewhat exposed and is west of the convection. This will keep development slow, and likely keep a westward track. Seems to be moving westward in tandem with the ULL to its west. The A98 and BAMD may have this one correct, or at least somewhere between them. If it can make it into the eastern Caribbean in 120 hours things will get interesting.

[dixiebreeze]

I tend to agree, Steve. Right now, it's hard to imagine the sharp NNE scenario from the NHC -- but they have been very good this season, so who knows??

[cycloneye]

dixie unless the center goes beneath the convection it will not be a tropical storm as right now it is exposed to the west of the converction so no be too impressed by the convection but look at where the center may be.

[dixiebreeze]

Yes, Luis, that's true. Convection can fool a person sometimes. But usually when convection is this strong, there seems to be a tendency for something to generate. Notice T-# are still 2.0/2.0.

[ChaserUK]

Actually I was thinking that we might get two storms out of this - I assume the possible centre is the area to the East?? I just get the impression that something is forming further to the West too!

[Anonymous]

Dont count on it. Nicholas (yes, it is a TS now i think) is the stronger system, and since the two systems are so close, I would imagine the stronger one would prohibit the weaker one from developing (In this case, Nicholas). Also, the system to the west is getting sheared a bit more than Nick, at least it seems so.

[ChaserUK]

well I swear I found this after posting my initial message - looks like we might get two??

http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/nata.html

[abajan]

I just get the impression that something is forming further to the West too!

Well, I'm hearing frequent peals of thunder to my west and northwest. I imagine it must be pretty noisy in the City of Bridgetown right about now! This may be some periferral effects from that interesting looking wave to our east.

[Dave C]

Chaser UK.. I noticed that to this afternoon. There does seem to be weak rotation around 50 deg. or so. there also is a lot of outflow boundries south of the forementioned area. As others have mentioned recently, the depression could be more of a islands threat per recent models.

[dixiebreeze]

Judging by the 5 p.m. advisory for TD 19, it's Westward Ho for this system. Islands take care!

[vbhoutex]

With the center still exposed I don't think it is to TS strength yet. Besides that it has no noticeably developed outflow or banding either. It is deeply embedded in the ITCZ also, which in and of itself doesn't make it not a TS, but makes it difficult to distinguish it from the surrounding cloudiness and storms. As far as track is concerned I think it will stay WNW for the time being missing the current trough but may be affected by the next one. We will see.

As far as two systems forming is concerned, it is possible the ULL to its' West could reach the surface and become a TC also. In fact at least one model, I believe it is the GFS, that I saw earlier today(haven't looked at latest runs)actually did show two systems developing out of TD # 19.

If everything being progged for 19 comes to pass it will just add to the WEIRDNESS of this Hurricane season. Definitely a year for the record books!!

[Renata]

Well, I'm hearing frequent peals of thunder to my west and northwest. I imagine it must be pretty noisy in the City of Bridgetown right about now! This may be some periferral effects from that interesting looking wave to our east.

I was in the City and the thunder was going consistently - as did the lightning and torrential rain. There was lots of flooding.

Actually some people might call this an act of terrorism since the Barbados Defence Force headquarters took a directly hit from lightning causing some damage and injuring three soldiers and one civilian.

[Stormsfury]

well I swear I found this after posting my initial message - looks like we might get two??

http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/nata.html

Chaser, your eyes aren't deceiving you. That's the monsoon trough associated with the arrival (translation east) of the wet phase of the MJO (NEG MJO pattern). That's what I banked on about 2-3 weeks ago with the Cape Verde season surprising us.

SF

[abajan]

I just get the impression that something is forming further to the West too!

Well, I'm hearing frequent peals of thunder to my west and northwest. I imagine it must be pretty noisy in the City of Bridgetown right about now! This may be some periferral effects from that interesting looking wave to our east.

A little while ago I heard on our evening news that three (make that 4) people were struck by lightning. There was also quite a bit of flooding (severe in some instances) in many western areas of the island. In stark contrast, there was hardly a drop at my house and I'm willing to bet that many areas had zero rainfall and brilliant sunshine all day!

Some of you on this board may be wondering how this can be on an island that's only 21 miles long by 14 miles wide and having a total area of about 166 sq. miles. You'd be surprised how often this sort of thing happens here. In fact, certain parts of this island are known to average much higher rainfall than others. For instance, it is well known that the airport is one of the driest places on this rock.

[bahamaswx]

We're only 21 miles long by 7 miles wide here

[opera ghost]

I just get the impression that something is forming further to the West too!

Well, I'm hearing frequent peals of thunder to my west and northwest. I imagine it must be pretty noisy in the City of Bridgetown right about now! This may be some periferral effects from that interesting looking wave to our east.

A little while ago I heard on our evening news that three people were struck by lightning. There was also quite a bit of flooding (severe in some instances) in many western areas of the island. In stark contrast, there was hardly a drop at my house and I'm willing to bet that many areas had zero rainfall and brilliant sunshine all day!

Some of you on this board may be wondering how this can be on an island that's only 21 miles long by 14 miles wide and having a total area of about 166 sq. miles. You'd be surprised how often this sort of thing happens here. In fact, certain parts of this island are known to average much higher rainfall than others. For instance, it is well known that the airport is one of the driest places on this rock.

Nah- I get a storm to beat all storms and my parents get nothing (20 miles away) and my inlaws only get a drop or two (5 miles away) localized flooding is normal *grins* at least where I live!

[ChaserUK]

thanks for your responses guys and glad I was not seeing things! Looking at the lastest I still feel we might get two out of this!