ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Stormcenter]

Oh well every model is allowed one goofy run. It will probably shift back....right?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Stop the presses...I can't imagine anyone saw this coming. This potentially changes everything and just goes to show that when a system falls into a weak steering environment that it can lead to major ramifications and uncertainties in the track. I can't recall what time the Euro ensembles come out...Anyone have anything on those yet?

I said something earlier but my post was deleted as off topic for some wierd reason.

I said 100 miles further south and florida would get thumped. Trend not your friend (Unless you are in NC)

Nobody should be issuing any evacuation orders this far out. Just precautions. I'm sure when this is over a few million more will be moved around.

[ronjon]

Oh well every model is allowed one goofy run. It will probably shift back....right?

I'd normally say yes but the FV3 GFS was somewhat similar.

[Aric Dunn]

by the way this current upper air recon mission is finally sampling the environment near the carolinas. 18z models might shift even more one way or the other. if they find the ridging strong well you know..

[chaser1]

Guess it's a good thing that South Carolina has taken evacuations for this pretty seriously given trends

Yeah, but a lot of the SC folks have evacuated to northern GA.

That's okay, there'll be a few Motel 6's in N. Florida that'll "leave the light on for ya" Seriously though, if your really concerned then i'd just head to Athens, Augusta, or Macon.

[ronjon]

12z GFS ensembles shifted south - mostly NC now and none offshore.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL06_2018091112_GEFS_large.png

[Blinhart]

Guess it's a good thing that South Carolina has taken evacuations for this pretty seriously given trends

Yeah, but a lot of the SC folks have evacuated to northern GA.

That's okay, there'll be a few Motel 6's in N. Florida that'll "leave the light on for ya" Seriously though, if your really concerned then i'd just head to Athens, Augusta, or Macon.

All 3 of those could be getting flooding rains. They need to go further West past Atlanta.

[Raebie]

Guess it's a good thing that South Carolina has taken evacuations for this pretty seriously given trends

Yeah, but a lot of the SC folks have evacuated to northern GA.

That's okay, there'll be a few Motel 6's in N. Florida that'll "leave the light on for ya" Seriously though, if your really concerned then i'd just head to Athens, Augusta, or Macon.

I'm in Charlotte...staying put and breaking put the rowboat.

[Mouton]

Actually, it is run twice a day, so 12 hours, but your point is well taken.

I am in N FL. Could my area come back into play??

Check the path of Dora in 64. It was a cat 4 not all that far from the point where Florence is now. It made an abrupt left turn and landed just south of Jax Beach in Florida as a cat 2 at landfall. I am not saying that will happen again but I was noting that three days ago. One weatherperson in Jax, George Winterling, made his bones predicting exactly that path which was against all the pronouncements from the NHC.

Keep in mind I am no expert and any life and property decisions should be made by the experts and I would rely on them totally for advice.

[tomatkins]

Unbelievable, usually when we get to 3 days from landfall, there is at least some agreement with all the models. I guess some may say anywhere from NC to GA is "some" agreement, but sheesh. Hopefully this run had a glitch or some sort...but with all the new information being fed into the models with all the high altitude flights, dropsondes, etc...This may turn out to be correct.

I dont think its gonna be clear until it happens. The models have been showing for a couple of days now that the storm will move towards a Myrtle Beach to OBX land fall, stall and then drift. But obviously the timing and direction of the drift is both hugely consequential, and very hard to predict.

[Vdogg]

12z GFS ensembles shifted south - mostly NC now and none offshore.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL06_2018091112_GEFS_large.png

The operational matches the southern most ensemble. The mean seems to line up around Wilmington, which is about where the Euro stalls it.

[EquusStorm]

I mean given some of these trends, I might have to open up the spare bedroom here north of Birmingham, AL, to evacuees

[chaser1]

Stop the presses...I can't imagine anyone saw this coming. This potentially changes everything and just goes to show that when a system falls into a weak steering environment that it can lead to major ramifications and uncertainties in the track. I can't recall what time the Euro ensembles come out...Anyone have anything on those yet?

I said something earlier but my post was deleted as off topic for some wierd reason.

I said 100 miles further south and florida would get thumped. Trend not your friend (Unless you are in NC)

Nobody should be issuing any evacuation orders this far out. Just precautions. I'm sure when this is over a few million more will be moved around.

You're right, your prior post should never have been deleted... not if moving it to a new S2K Tropical Humor Thread was an available option instead.

I don't mean to skew your post with logic, fact, or common sense but Boca (random S. Fl. location) is about 475 miles south of Savannah and Miami is even further south then that (just a rabbit's butt hair more then 100 miles, huh?). Oh, and just how long do you think it takes to move several million people, handicapped, elderly, and hospital patients away from the coastline during an otherwise normal couple of school and work traffic day while a monster Cat 4 hurricane is barreling down.

[jlauderdal]

by the way this current upper air recon mission is finally sampling the environment near the carolinas. 18z models might shift even more one way or the other. if they find the ridging strong well you know..

im very surprised the gfs is shifting so far to the sw..

[artist]

[Blown Away]

[i mg]https://s33.postimg.cc/z0xd981pb/storm_06.gif[/img]

I can’t imagine the NHC anxiety with Euro a big time outlier... Wow

[chaser1]

Yeah, but a lot of the SC folks have evacuated to northern GA.

That's okay, there'll be a few Motel 6's in N. Florida that'll "leave the light on for ya" Seriously though, if your really concerned then i'd just head to Athens, Augusta, or Macon.

All 3 of those could be getting flooding rains. They need to go further West past Atlanta.

.

Incorrect. I'm fairly confident that all three of those city infrastructures can manage the under 1.5" of rain that current GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation is presently forecast for those location during the next 200 + hours. But sure, take an extended road trip - maybe Memphis?

[FLeastcoast]

That's okay, there'll be a few Motel 6's in N. Florida that'll "leave the light on for ya" Seriously though, if your really concerned then i'd just head to Athens, Augusta, or Macon.

All 3 of those could be getting flooding rains. They need to go further West past Atlanta.

.

Incorrect. I'm fairly confident that all three of those city infrastructures can manage the under 1.5" of rain that current GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation is presently forecast for those location during the next 200 + hours. But sure, take an extended road trip - maybe Memphis?

Chaser..is that because it doesn't seem to stall as long when it shows it going more south?

[FLeastcoast]

All 3 of those could be getting flooding rains. They need to go further West past Atlanta.

.

Incorrect. I'm fairly confident that all three of those city infrastructures can manage the under 1.5" of rain that current GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation is presently forecast for those location during the next 200 + hours. But sure, take an extended road trip - maybe Memphis?

Chaser..is that because it doesn't seem to stall as long when it shows it going more south?

umm I might mean west..I am terrible at directional things...I mean when it goes more towards GA area

[chris_fit]

Euro Ensembles...... many showing similar to what Euro Operational shows