WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

eye is looking very warm here

[1900hurricane]

It's worth noting that structure still isn't perfect yet. With convection as deep as it is right now, imagine the potential ceiling when structure is sorted out.

[1900hurricane]

I might go 130 kt for 00Z, but with a little more uncertainty than usual.

[mrbagyo]

I wonder how high JMA would go in the next warning.
They'll release it within the next 20-30 minutes.

[1900hurricane]

I wonder how high JMA would go in the next warning.
They'll release it within the next 20-30 minutes.

I'd guess 95 kt since they went with a FT of 6.0 at 00Z.

[1900hurricane]

If JTWC only goes 115 kt for 00Z, I will throw things.

TPPN11 PGTW 110028

A. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT)

B. 11/0000Z

C. 13.91N

D. 141.20E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET YIELDS A 5.5 WHILE PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2044Z 13.90N 142.07E SSMS
10/2131Z 13.93N 141.85E SSMS


LEMBKE

[Ntxw]

It's worth noting that structure still isn't perfect yet. With convection as deep as it is right now, imagine the potential ceiling when structure is sorted out.

I say 160 kts at peak .

Fairly far south, lots of warm water and good upper conditions.

[mrbagyo]

Ryan forecasts for JMA hehe
JMA - 95 knots

TY 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 11 September 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 11 September>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N14°00' (14.0°)
E141°20' (141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM

[1900hurricane]

Ryan forecasts for JMA hehe
JMA - 95 knots

TY 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 11 September 2018
<Analysis at 00 UTC, 11 September>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N14°00' (14.0°)
E141°20' (141.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM

Heh, I just know how to look at their Dvorak analyses. I think I need to thank NotoSans for teaching me that one.

[1900hurricane]

Speaking of throwing things, I can't help but wonder if JTWC forecasters are throwing things at each other trying to come up with the 00Z intensity analysis. They sure are taking their sweet time with this one.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like they're going with 120 kt. I would have gone higher, but all the objects in my apartment shall remain safe and unthrown.

26W MANGKHUT 180911 0000 14.0N 141.2E WPAC 120 941

[kala]

Heh, I just know how to look at their Dvorak analyses. I think I need to thank NotoSans for teaching me that one.

I'm interested. Where do you find them? I had a look through the NOAA text product server and could only find CPHC, JTWC, and Guam stuff.

[1900hurricane]

Heh, I just know how to look at their Dvorak analyses. I think I need to thank NotoSans for teaching me that one.

I'm interested. Where do you find them? I had a look through the NOAA text product server and could only find CPHC, JTWC, and Guam stuff.

You can find them in BUFR format in this directory. To actually see them, you'll need a BUFR decoder. This is the one I use.

[kala]

Oh that's cool, thanks!

[euro6208]

Impressive. Since Dvorak falls behind completely with intense systems, I say this is a Cat 5 now. We've seen this in the Atlantic many times.

[Highteeld]

Solid 9/10

[Highteeld]

[1900hurricane]

JTWC is at 6.5 for 03Z.

TPPN11 PGTW 110253

A. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT)

B. 11/0230Z

C. 13.89N

D. 140.60E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AGREES WITH DT WHILE PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/2131Z 13.93N 141.85E SSMS
10/2216Z 13.95N 141.45E MMHS


LEMBKE

[NotoSans]

Up to 100 knots from JMA as well.

[Highteeld]

Looking more like a legit T 7.0 in this frame -- possibly going higher. More of the eye has warmed + huge white CDO with streaks of CMG.