WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

[euro6208]

Have power back again.

[euro6208]

Incredibly exciting storm. Major damage to vegetation. The south likely flooded though.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 47 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION DEEPENED AND TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING FED INTO A RAGGED BUT
WELL-DEFINED 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP
PERFECTLY WITH A SHARPLY OUTLINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 100855Z SSMIS
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.5 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SST AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TY 26W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UP TO TAU 36 UNDER THE
STR. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
AS THE STR WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING SUPER-TYPHOON INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS BY TAU
72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST THAT IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY MANGKHUT WILL CONTINUE ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR
AND AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL ENTER THE LUZON STRAIT. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, BRINGING THE INTENSITY TO A
PEAK OF 140 KNOTS BY TAU 96, POSSIBLY HIGHER. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION
WITH TAIWAN AND LUZON WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 125
KNOTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

Euro, GFS and UKMET (the ones that are usually more reliable) all bring this typhoon very close to Hong Kong. Surprised to see such an agreement among models in the extended taus.

[euro6208]

Skyrocketing.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 SEP 2018 Time : 174000 UTC
Lat : 14:00:00 N Lon : 142:36:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 982.1mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 4.2 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -23.0C Cloud Region Temp : -78.4C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 130nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.6 degrees

****************************************************

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/1039084317132173312

[euro6208]

Up to 110 knots.

26W MANGKHUT 180910 1800 14.0N 142.6E WPAC 110 950

[Highteeld]

Up to 110 knots.

26W MANGKHUT 180910 1800 14.0N 142.6E WPAC 110 950

No longer dragging its feet. Some ernst strengthening going on right now.

[mrbagyo]

Latest microwave pass (2 hrs old) is still showing an open Eyewall to the NW

[Highteeld]

Better defined eye now. Maybe the eyewall is doing better now. We'll see

[SconnieCane]

Looks like the classic "fist" signature of impending RI to me. Shouldn't take long to match or overtake Florence on the other side of the world.

[Highteeld]

Looks like the Chinese have it at 945 mb as of 21 UTC, which seems pretty reasonable to me.

[mrbagyo]

[Highteeld]

Really starting to get the "All Powerful Western Pacific Super Typhoon" look to it.

[1900hurricane]

Latest microwave pass (2 hrs old) is still showing an open Eyewall to the NW

It's closing off very rapidly now, coinciding with the organizing convective presentation.

[Highteeld]

Category 5 would seem to be just around the corner. Maue said 155-170 knots with this storm is on the table.

[michelinj]

Wow. Wow. Wow. It took Mangkhut a while to get sorted out but my word has it done that now. It is HUGE! We’ll have a few days to marvel at it before we can worry about the damage it will cause...

[1900hurricane]

Wow, all of a sudden, it's on the cusp of an instantaneous DT of 7.5.

[Highteeld]

Looking much more powerful than Florence