tarheelprogrammer wrote:When does the UKMET come out?
Roughly 12:30 or so on the plots from SFWMD.
ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Roughly 12:30 or so on the plots from SFWMD.
Last edited by txwatcher91 on Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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BensonTCwatcher
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
BensonTCwatcher wrote:50 or 75 miles further north on this run perhaps.
It is further south on the GFS at hour 78.
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MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
0z GFS is identical to 18z out to 96.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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M a r k
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BensonTCwatcher
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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M a r k
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MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
About a 75 mile jump north for landfall in North Carolina on the 0z GFS.
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tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Hearing the UKMET is north into the Outer Banks, anyone confirm Outer Banks on 0z tonight?
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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TheDreamTraveler
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
TheDreamTraveler wrote:There's the stall again. Barely drifting north around NC/VA
Yeah the stall is persisting and is pretty concerning.
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TheDreamTraveler
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Up to hour 150 it looks like it's trying to do a loop over NC
edit: Not really. Just starts drifting west.
edit 2: Then the low plunges into Georgia lol
edit: Not really. Just starts drifting west.
edit 2: Then the low plunges into Georgia lol
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
CMC is brutal, stalls it offshore of Wilmington lashing it until Monday, then it just moves on in and up to Raleigh.
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southerngale
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
meriland29 wrote:Does anyone know offhand what the predicted rainfall graph was 5 days out for Harvey last year?
This isn't a graph, but this was posted 3 days before landfall. We had over 60" of rain, flooding everyone and everything for many miles in every direction from my house. I do not trust rainfall predictions. You never know.
https://imgur.com/a/haclj3r
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seussianagenda
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
Well if the gfs and ukmet pan out This is pretty much my nightmare scenario. I live in zone b for evacuation in Norfolk Va. We had five inches of rain today and rain is in the forecast all week. I’m a teacher, and I’m not waiting for schools to close. I’m evacuating Tuesday morning. It’s not worth it.
This will wreck Hampton roads. The area will never be the same if this comes to fruition.
This will wreck Hampton roads. The area will never be the same if this comes to fruition.
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txwatcher91
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models
meriland29 wrote:Does anyone know offhand what the predicted rainfall graph was 5 days out for Harvey last year?
5 days out, they didn't know it was even going to reform.
So here is the graphic from the 23rd.
If you're using this to extrapolate how much rain will fall from Florence, don't. It won't be accurate.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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PTrackerLA
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