NHC sez it's going NW but it does not look so

[Renata]

Do you agree with the center fixes from the NHC? Their official path has it going NW but in fact the entire thing seems headed west.

Can someone shed some light?

[Steve H.]

If you're talking about TD#19, they have it going WNW. Think there was a typo in the original release at 5am. System still bears watching, though most of the Globals take it north , then NE. Since its at such a low latitude, will give it the benefit of a doubt. Cold front coming across Florida tomorrow will sweep thru central FL tomorrow. We'll see if this trough lifts out as to not pull out future Nicholas, since I don't believe the current trough will do it and steering currents are weak, but he'll have to move further west if he wants to stay in the game, or his poleward tendency will drift him off to the north as he strengthens. We'll see. NW Carib convection is still there, though may move inland. GFS takes it into EPAC. NOGAPS still tries to get something going in the Gulf of Honduras. Climatologically, its getting late for systems to move into the EPAC and develop, so let's watch where the focus of the energy will be over the next few days. Western Caribbean is the place to watch for anything that could affect the US, and as 57 said, probably a week or so away. Cheers!!