ATL: ISAAC - Models

[SoupBone]

00Z Euro at 240 hours buries it into Nicaragua, in line with its last 3 runs, the GFS, and the FV3-GFS.

[SoupBone]

00Z CMC turns it out to sea well before the islands.

00Z CMC



00Z ICON has a nearly Cat 3 right on top of Antigua on Saturday.

[SoupBone]

HWRF has a nearly Cat 4 slam Martinique and Dominica.

[Nimbus]

00Z HWRF has Isaac coming through south of Dominica as a hurricane a full degree further south from last run.
NAVGEM is forecasting a South Carolina/Georgia landfall for Florence which allows Issac to follow and track north of the islands altogether.
Dryer inflow is reducing convection this morning as forecast which tends to reduce priority this far out.

[Gustywind]

00Z CMC turns it out to sea well before the islands.

00Z CMC



00Z ICON has a nearly Cat 3 right on top of Antigua on Saturday.

[Gustywind]

HWRF has a nearly Cat 4 slam Martinique and Dominica.

hope that the HWRF is in a pure CRAZY fantasy projection That should be very worrying since this same HWRF at 18 z Sep 08 wanted to send a 918 mb system close to Guadeloupe.

[abajan]

HWRF has a nearly Cat 4 slam Martinique and Dominica.

http://i67.tinypic.com/xbmis5.png

hope that the HWRF is in a pure CRAZY fantasy projection That should be very worrying since this same HWRF at 18 z Sep 08 wanted to send a 918 mb system close to Guadeloupe.

I think that's the same model that had a Cat 4 passing directly over Barbados a couple years ago. I can't recall which system it was.

[Hugo1989]

HWRF has a nearly Cat 4 slam Martinique and Dominica.

http://i67.tinypic.com/xbmis5.png

hope that the HWRF is in a pure CRAZY fantasy projection That should be very worrying since this same HWRF at 18 z Sep 08 wanted to send a 918 mb system close to Guadeloupe.

I think that's the same model that had a Cat 4 passing directly over Barbados a couple years ago. I can't recall which system it was.

This model had a tremendous performance with Maria last year. I think this is a special model that perform great with sistems already developed, specifically huricanes. Not good at all.

[AubreyStorm]

Crazy.

The forecast is getting more worrying.

[tolakram]

6Z HWRF

[Gustywind]

Crazy.

The forecast is getting more worrying.

[AubreyStorm]

Isaac

[Gustywind]

6Z HWRF
https://i.imgur.com/XdDfinc.gif

ouch, that's very worrying, hope that this solution should not verifies...

[artist]

[Gustywind]

HWRF has a nearly Cat 4 slam Martinique and Dominica.

http://i67.tinypic.com/xbmis5.png

hope that the HWRF is in a pure CRAZY fantasy projection That should be very worrying since this same HWRF at 18 z Sep 08 wanted to send a 918 mb system close to Guadeloupe.

I think that's the same model that had a Cat 4 passing directly over Barbados a couple years ago. I can't recall which system it was.

Waouw, hope that this model will not be able to repeat it. HWRF is a bit very crazy we those projections towards Guadeloupe and Dominica. Any island of the EC do not need that scenario to achieve .

[SoupBone]

Latest CMC doesn't turn it away before impacting the islands. It has it scraping them, then heading out to sea.

[SoupBone]

12Z Euro with slightly lower pressures as it hits the islands on Thursday.

[NDG]

Latest CMC doesn't turn it away before impacting the islands. It has it scraping them, then heading out to sea.

http://i64.tinypic.com/34ig28z.png

The CMC has gone from bad to really really bad as the season has gone, why even bother with it.

[supercane4867]

It seems 12z HWRF is finally picking up the shear and has a much weaker Isaac heading for the islands

[SoupBone]

Latest CMC doesn't turn it away before impacting the islands. It has it scraping them, then heading out to sea.

http://i64.tinypic.com/34ig28z.png

The CMC has gone from bad to really really bad as the season has gone, why even bother with it.

I know but I don't want to be accused of model bias.

Did you see the NW Caribbean potential system? Just got a message from our service talking about it. They say 20% chance of it getting to a depression.