WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Unbelievable amount of people gassing up their cars, buying water, and grocery shopping at both supermarkets and home furnitures. I'm the one with more information yet i feel like i'm the one left out. So glad our residents are taking this seriously.

[euro6208]

Most of Guam homes is made out of concrete. I see typhoon shutters up and wooden plywoods. I'll settle for the latter.

[SconnieCane]

What do we think, does this have the potential to get in the same league as Megi ('10), Haiyan or Meranti? Most of the forecasts seem to be well shy of that, but not sure if anyone would ever explicitly forecast such intensity.

[michelinj]

Yes forecasts may be shy of megi etc. however I doubt that the intital forecasts for those storms said that they would go on to be the storms they were! So I would say it’s a possibility

[euro6208]

Very little coverage on this on mainstream. Guam is a U.S territory just like Puerto Rico which got hit by Maria. Is it the distance from the overreacting U.S mainland? or #BreakingNewsLane Hawaii?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Very little coverage on this on mainstream. Guam is a U.S territory just like Puerto Rico which got hit by Maria. Is it the distance from the overreacting U.S mainland? or #BreakingNewsLane Hawaii?

Lack of coverage indeed, but a category four (in forecasts) hurricane directly threatening states with millions of inhabitants doesn't sound like an overreaction. Let's not discount the >1,000 mm of rain brought by Lane. I anticipate more coverage from networks on Mangkhut, yet we shouldn't downplay Lane and Florence either.

[mrbagyo]

55 Knots - @18z - advanced issue?

26W MANGKHUT 180908 1800 14.9N 157.1E WPAC 55 982

[mrbagyo]

I think Rapid Intensification has commenced

[Guamphoon]

Welcome to the Pacific after dark. These cyclones turn beastly when the sun goes down.

[NotoSans]

Latest Euro run looks like an extremely dangerous scenario for the Pearl River Delta. Let's see if the southward trend continues.

[NotoSans]

Extremely aggressive forecast from JMA

WTPQ20 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1822 MANGKHUT (1822) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 14.6N 157.4E FAIR
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 14.4N 150.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 101800UTC 13.8N 143.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 111800UTC 14.1N 138.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT =

[supercane4867]

12z EC gives a devastating blow to HK and surrounding area. Hopefully it continues to shift south and gets inner core destroyed over the less populated Luzon.

[mrbagyo]

Must be a typhoon by 00z

[NotoSans]

The majority of ECMWF ensemble members still show a track over southern Taiwan, while the ensemble mean suggests a landfall east to Hong Kong.

[michelinj]

Can’t seem to post the image but last few satellite frames confuse me. Is the clearer patch an attempt at clearing out an eye? Or simply just how the convection is bursting? Seems to me as if the centre should be further east than that patch but if a solid ring forms around it could that become the centre?

[mrbagyo]

Latest Euro run looks like an extremely dangerous scenario for the Pearl River Delta. Let's see if the southward trend continues.

Aside from Typhoon Ellen, maybe STY Sally of Sept 1964 (crossed Guam, peaked at 170knts and necessitated a Signal 8 in HK) can also serve as an analog for Mangkhut

[mrbagyo]

Can’t seem to post the image but last few satellite frames confuse me. Is the clearer patch an attempt at clearing out an eye? Or simply just how the convection is bursting? Seems to me as if the centre should be further east than that patch but if a solid ring forms around it could that become the centre?

That clear patch is just a moat between the rainband and the CDO. The center is definitely within the CDO.

[michelinj]

That clear patch is just a moat between the rainband and the CDO. The center is definitely within the CDO.

Thanks. I thought it looked a bit odd to be an eye!

[michelinj]

Although the next frame really does look like it’s trying! Hmmm a weird one

[mrbagyo]

Oopst I could be wrong - after seeing the latest SSMIS pass l also became confused

1714z


1927z