ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

I see the GFS went back to Florence sucking the basin dry and taking NINE with her as she exits to the NE.

[SoupBone]

I see the GFS went back to Florence sucking the basin dry and taking NINE with her as she exits to the NE.

Not exactly. It goes poof as it hits Haiti and never returns.

[toad strangler]

I see the GFS went back to Florence sucking the basin dry and taking NINE with her as she exits to the NE.

Not exactly. It goes poof as it hits Haiti and never returns.

Well let’s just agree to disagree. NINE was getting yanked before Poof.

[SoupBone]

I see the GFS went back to Florence sucking the basin dry and taking NINE with her as she exits to the NE.

Not exactly. It goes poof as it hits Haiti and never returns.

Well let’s just agree to disagree. NINE was getting yanked before Poof.

You think that NW movement is due to Florence's influence? Curious to know your thoughts.

[toad strangler]

Not exactly. It goes poof as it hits Haiti and never returns.

Well let’s just agree to disagree. NINE was getting yanked before Poof.

You think that NW movement is due to Florence's influence? Curious to know your thoughts.

Yes because it’s at least the 3rd time (not consecutive runs) that the GFS pulled a basin wide sweeping vacuum cleaner job with a Florence exit. Not just with 92L / NINE but the whole basin practically lol

[SoupBone]

Well let’s just agree to disagree. NINE was getting yanked before Poof.

You think that NW movement is due to Florence's influence? Curious to know your thoughts.

Yes because it’s at least the 3rd time (not consecutive runs) that the GFS pulled a basin wide sweeping vacuum cleaner job with a Florence exit. Not just with 92L / NINE but the whole basin practically lol

So the questions is, if Florence doesn't influence TD9's path, will it head into Honduras/Nicaragua or the Belize area and crash land there?

[Cypresso]

Why are people not talking about this more? I know Florence is the flavor of the hour, but this will start impacting the islands in around 5 days (if it's a larger system).

I was wondering the same, especially after the latest tracking. I realize that there is concern for the islands, however, being in the Houston area, this could possibly be a concern. Of course, as stated by another, we will have better tracking probably sometime between Monday and Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

Remains as TD on 00z Best Track.

AL, 09, 2018090800, , BEST, 0, 139N, 350W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 210, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE

[SoupBone]

Why are people not talking about this more? I know Florence is the flavor of the hour, but this will start impacting the islands in around 5 days (if it's a larger system).

I was wondering the same, especially after the latest tracking. I realize that there is concern for the islands, however, being in the Houston area, this could possibly be a concern. Of course, as stated by another, we will have better tracking probably sometime between Monday and Wednesday.

It's a complicated looking setup because Florence might have a say so in its final track. But the islands would start feeling some of its outer bands around Wednesday, and then landfall around Thursday evening, Friday early. It's getting within that 7 day window. By Sunday, and it comes within that 5 day window, I hope the islands begin preparing.

[Gustywind]

Will be a Hurricane on approach to Islands.

INIT 07/2100Z 13.6N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.9N 35.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.0N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 14.0N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 14.0N 39.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 14.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 14.1N 48.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 14.5N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

waouw 75kts? close to a bordeline cat 2

[Hurricaneman]

Will be a Hurricane on approach to Islands.

INIT 07/2100Z 13.6N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.9N 35.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.0N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 14.0N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 14.0N 39.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 14.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 14.1N 48.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 14.5N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

waouw 75kts? close to a bordeline cat 2

You will need to monitor this system, might be nasty weather

[Gustywind]

Latest given SSD...
08/0000 UTC 13.9N 35.0W T1.5/1.5 09L
07/1745 UTC 13.6N 34.9W T1.0/1.0 92L

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 34.9W
ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

The depression continues to be impeded by moderate easterly shear
with the center of circulation decoupled to the east of a deep
convective banding feature. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt
based on subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The dynamical-statistical intensity guidance, as well as the
large-scale models, indicate that the shear should diminish to less
than 10 kt within the next 24 hours. A more favorable upper-wind
pattern along with warm oceanic temperatures is expected to promote
steady strengthening commencing after that time. The intensity
forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA consensus
models and remains below the stronger HWRF at days 4 and 5.

The depression has been meandering during the past several
hours, as a result of weak low- to mid-level steering currents
created by a deep-layer trough digging southward over the eastern
Atlantic. In 12 to 24 hours, a westward motion with a gradual
increase in forward speed is forecast thereafter as the trough lifts
northeast, and the subtropical ridge re-establishes to the north of
the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies closest to the HCCA and
TVCN guidance and takes the system toward the Lesser Antilles by the
end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.9N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 14.1N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 14.2N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 14.3N 38.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 14.4N 40.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 14.4N 45.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 14.4N 50.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 14.9N 56.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[cycloneye]

[Blinhart]

local met here just tweeted that 9 should be Isaac by tomorrow morning, and could be a possible Cat 2 by the time it gets to the Islands.

[StruThiO]

100mph by end of forecast period stay safe all.

[Blinhart]

local met here just tweeted that 9 should be Isaac by tomorrow morning, and could be a possible Cat 2 by the time it gets to the Islands.

[cycloneye]

local met here just tweeted that 9 should be Isaac by tomorrow morning, and could be a possible Cat 2 by the time it gets to the Islands.

That is the 11 PM forecast.

120H 13/0000Z 14.9N 56.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

[supercane4867]

Once again the "I" name goes to a potentially destructive storm.

[Gustywind]

local met here just tweeted that 9 should be Isaac by tomorrow morning, and could be a possible Cat 2 by the time it gets to the Islands.

That is the 11 PM forecast.

120H 13/0000Z 14.9N 56.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

Oh boy, each forecast, the intensity is getting stronger and stronger?!, is that a joke Luis or my eyes are deceiving me?