Caribbean system doesn't have much support for development.

[Stormsfury]

Out of all the operational globals at 12z (still have to wait on the 12z ECMWF later tonight), and the GFS and CMC ensembles, there's not much real support for development.

Models that DO develop the area in the Western Caribbean.

NOGAPS - (Well weakly)
UKMET (1007 mb low moving inland over Honduras)
MM5 (as a powerhouse system)
CMC ensemble members CMC2/CMC4/CMC9/CMC12

NOGAPS
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2003101312

UKMET
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

MM5 - Powerhouse depiction - which if you'll notice handles Tropical Depression #19 ok, but I don't like its handling of Mindy whatsoever by stalling it and actually drifting a little westward towards the end of the 5 day period.
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/45km.cgi?ti ... =Animation

Canadian Ensembles (10 image Java Animation Loop-Approx. 2.4 mb)
The CMC2 scenario seems very unlikely IMHO, and at the end of the 10 day period, another area of convection shows up. (Which is depicted by a very solid deepening and crossing Southern Florida and off the east coast and then gets drawn rapidly northward into ME/Nova Scotia)

The CMC4 scenario also crosses Southern Florida but much, much later in the period than the CMC2 scenario which would seems more reasonable in regards to timing, however, again, it's overdone IMHO.

The CMC9 and CMC12 have it as a smaller flareup and maybe a closed circ but as it begins to move northward it loses energy and pretty much fizzles out.

The CMC7 is interesting, but also not likely. This is in regards to #19, which brings it WNW for a time and then turns NNW to N at a VERY RAPID CLIP and threatens Bermuda on the 19th, and continues to race rapidly northward into Newfoundland (direct strike) as a tropical entity two days later.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoo ... mbles.html

That pretty much leaves last night's EURO, GFS (no real solid closed low), operational CMC. I don't have access to the EURO Ensembles, and haven't tried to find the NOGAPS ensembles.

Pretty much, IMHO opinion, the area of convection may have a chance if it can maintain itself over the TCHP and SST's of the Western Caribbean, and the current convectionless low pressure over the Eastern GOM MIGHT be a factor in steering, but my best take on this is that it remains too close to the Central American Coast and Mexican Coast with enough of an energy split to prevent any significant development, even with the pretty good conditions currently found there.

Will be watching this area with close interest.

SF

[Rainband]

This is definitely the area to watch this time of year. I say it's good for one more system at least IMHO Time will tell

[OtherHD]

Wow, if the MM5 verifies, can we say "Mitch Revisited"?

[btangy]

MM5 for tropical cyclone forecasting... hmm, probably take it with a grain of salt, but interesting nevertheless. Would definitely be something to watch out for this time of year.

[Stormsfury]

MM5 for tropical cyclone forecasting... hmm, probably take it with a grain of salt, but interesting nevertheless. Would definitely be something to watch out for this time of year.

Bingo. However, it did have one highlight. "ERIKA"

SF