TD 19 forecast 1

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic19fd.html


slow, slow slow

[JCT777]

Thanks for the update, Derek. Looks like we will have to keep an eye on this storm for many days to come.

[Rainband]

Thanks for the update!!

[lilbump3000]

I very well think that the southern to central islands will be effect, cause that huge curve they got going on, I just dont think thats going to happen, so the people in the islands between 14-16N, watch out cause this one could be yours.

[btangy]

It's getting very late in the season for Cape Verde storms to plow west for long periods of time. Just the frontal structure associated with whatever's left of Mindy (which is not a tropical cyclone anymore IMO) may be enough to cause a weakness in the ridge north of TD19 to cause eventual recurvature before even getting close to the islands. Whereas earlier in the season, it was obvious the global models had a northward bias, now that the westerlies are starting to dip further south, the northward bias is probably much reduced. I don't see a threat to the islands from TD19/Nicholas.

[lilbump3000]

We will see cause as on now its south of the 10N and south of there do have weak sterring currents.

[Anonymous]

This recurvature they are saying looks a bit iffy to me. Its very far south, and where are they northern stearing currents? The closest one is the trough associated with Mindy, and its near the Bahamas! I think this think is too far south to recurve and miss the antilles, but a curvature towards the end of the period (with it making landfall on one of the antilles islands while recurving) seems likely. We will see.

[Derek Ortt]

I'd trend toward the tropicla models in this case as they're designed for the deep tropics, and we wont get much deeper than this.