CPAC: OLIVIA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it'll be denied in its 3rd try to become a Cat.4. Should have one more chance in a 48 hours once it enter the sweet spot between 140W-150W. I think Beven realizes it too considering what happened with Hector, Lane, and Norman in this general area.

[BYG Jacob]

Don't understand why they are being conservative here.

[Kingarabian]

I don't mind them being conservative here. The great Hawaiian shear could poke its nose, and the thermodynamics will be marginal.

[1900hurricane]

Don't understand why they are being conservative here.

Many of the microwave intensity estimates are a good bit lower than the more traditional infrared intensity estimates like the Dvorak Technique and ADT. Considering this, 110 kt appears to be a perfectly reasonable intensity estimate for the current moment to me.

[Kingarabian]

Nevermind maybe it's not done intensifying. Past few frames shows increased CDO organization and an eye that continues to warm. These to be annular canes can bust any forecast reasoning.

[Chris90]

Olivia wants that Cat 4 title.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS big shift east and floods out the Big Island:

[Kingarabian]

Possible EWRC soon:


Core looks very healthy otherwise.

[EquusStorm]

If this isn't at 115kt at the 11pm EDT I'll be a little shocked. CI# stands at 6.3. NE was ragged on microwave earlier today but looks like structure has only continued to improve through the evening. A gorgeous 'cane

[tolakram]

Gorgeous.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&sec=full_disk&x=3658&y=7146&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Ntxw]

most "appealing" looking storm since Hector, in my opinion. Just something about Annularity.

[Blown Away]

Amazing how many systems zoom by north & south of Hawaii and fall apart on the approach...

[Kingarabian]

Based on this F16 SSMIS pass, looks like its wrapping up its ERC:

[1900hurricane]

I'd go 115 kt for 00Z.

[Ntxw]

That is a beautiful eye

[Kingarabian]

Amazing how many systems zoom by north & south of Hawaii and fall apart on the approach...

Latest HWRF and HMON are now keeping this a respectable hurricane on its approach to Hawaii.

[EquusStorm]

Especially if it stays on the south side of whatever SST gradient is in that area

[1900hurricane]

6.0 from SAB.

TXPZ27 KNES 070022
TCSENP

A. 17E (OLIVIA)

B. 07/0000Z

C. 18.8N

D. 129.1W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED
IN LG FOR A DT=6.0 INCLUDING +1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=5.5. PT=5.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[supercane4867]

I'm giving a 90% chance that Olivia will be upgraded to CAT4 at 00z

[1900hurricane]

115 kt/948 mb.

EP, 17, 2018090700, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1291W, 115, 948, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 80, 80, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLIVIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
EP, 17, 2018090700, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1291W, 115, 948, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 30, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLIVIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
EP, 17, 2018090700, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1291W, 115, 948, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLIVIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,